Ukraine is at risk of plunging into civil unrest or even complete internal collapse if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump ends Washington’s unconditional support for Kiev, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba has warned.
In an op-ed for The Economist, Kuleba outlined the dangers of a potential policy reversal under the Trump administration. He highlighted fears that the U.S. could withdraw financial and military aid or pressure Ukraine into an unfavorable peace deal with Russia. “If the money were to dry up, a new dynamic would come into play, and not all of it on the battlefield,” he stated, warning that Ukraine might lose critical ground in its war efforts without U.S. backing.
Civil Unrest and Risk of Collapse
Kuleba warned that a U.S.-brokered peace deal perceived as a capitulation to Russian demands could ignite widespread domestic resistance. “If the Trump administration then imposed unpalatable peace terms on Ukraine, and if Mr. Zelensky agreed (an unlikely scenario), part of Ukrainian society would resist. Domestic unrest would risk the country’s internal collapse,” he argued.
Such a breakdown would be a strategic victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who could then frame Ukraine as a failed state.
Shifting U.S. Stance and Uncertainty
Throughout his re-election campaign, Trump vowed to mediate a quick peace between Kiev and Moscow but avoided clarifying his stance on Ukraine’s victory, instead emphasizing a desire to end the war. Reports earlier this year suggested that Trump’s advisers had drafted a ceasefire proposal based on current battle lines, though the Trump campaign has not officially endorsed any specific plan.
These signals have amplified concerns in Kiev, which insists on peace terms rooted in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “peace formula.” The formula includes a demand for the restoration of Ukraine’s 1991 borders—an idea Russia has outright rejected, instead advocating for Ukraine’s neutrality, NATO renunciation, and recognition of Crimea and other contested territories as Russian.
Geopolitical Stakes
In a recent phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Putin reiterated his view that the conflict stems from NATO’s “aggressive policy” and disregard for Russian security concerns. Kuleba’s warnings underscore the precarious balance Ukraine faces as the incoming Trump administration could dramatically alter U.S. involvement in the region.
