For over three decades, Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, has maintained an iron grip on power, surviving multiple attempts to unseat him. However, it was during the rigged 2020 presidential elections that the simmering discontent in the country finally erupted into a nationwide protest movement. Led by a charismatic trio of female opposition leaders, the demonstrators rallied in the streets of Minsk, demanding an end to Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule.
The streets were filled with people waving red and white opposition flags, a symbol of the democratic aspirations that many Belarusians held close to their hearts. The protests that followed were the most significant challenge to Lukashenko’s reign since he first took power in 1994. Yet, despite the passion of the protesters and the scale of the unrest, the movement was brutally crushed. Supported by his ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Lukashenko deployed his security forces to suppress dissent, resulting in more than 60,000 arrests and the closure of all independent media outlets. Hundreds of thousands of opposition supporters fled the country to escape retribution. In one of the most harrowing moments of the unrest, Lukashenko even flew above Minsk in a helicopter, armed with a rifle, as he monitored the protests.
Fast forward to January 2025, and the political landscape in Belarus has changed drastically. Despite the hopes raised by the 2020 uprising, fear and apathy now pervade the country. Lukashenko is preparing to secure a seventh term in office through a set of elections that have already been dismissed as a sham. Local sources, speaking to The Times, reveal that many Belarusians have resigned themselves to the fact that their voices no longer matter. The fear of arrest, coupled with the omnipresent surveillance of the KGB, has rendered any meaningful dissent all but impossible. “People are still living in fear,” said M, a 29-year-old woman from Minsk. “People can’t say openly what they think about the authorities and are afraid to keep compromising information on their phones, such as subscriptions to opposition media.”
The trauma of the 2020 crackdown remains fresh in the minds of many. One woman, reflecting on the widespread torture of detainees during the protests, remarked, “It changed us all a lot. Even now, those events still have a hold on people.”
In stark contrast to the 2020 protests, which were fuelled by a sense of optimism and hope for a better future, the atmosphere surrounding this year’s elections is one of resignation. “No one is talking about the elections,” said L, a local resident. “Everyone knows very well what the outcome will be. People are scared.” With most Belarusians fully aware of the outcome before the ballots are cast, the elections have become a mere formality, largely ignored by the population.
The opposition, which once posed a genuine threat to Lukashenko’s rule, now finds itself in a precarious position. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who was widely seen as the true victor of the 2020 elections, has been forced into exile. Even she has urged Belarusians to avoid risking their lives for protests that she believes will have no impact on the regime. “These so-called elections are not the trigger that people need. So I’m asking people not to sacrifice themselves,” she told Reuters in November.
With more than 1,300 political prisoners languishing in Belarusian jails, including prominent opposition figures such as Tsikhanouskaya’s husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, and Maria Kolesnikova, one of the three women who led the 2020 uprising, the prospects for change within Belarus appear grim. Kolesnikova, who famously ripped up her passport to avoid deportation, is now serving an 11-year prison sentence.
As Lukashenko consolidates his power, his relationship with Moscow continues to deepen. While Belarusian forces have not been sent to fight in Ukraine, Lukashenko has allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory as a launchpad for missile and drone attacks. Furthermore, Belarus has been drawn further into Russia’s war in Ukraine, with Lukashenko’s regime providing logistical support and accepting the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
For many Belarusians, the war in Ukraine has exacerbated an already difficult situation. Public opinion polls show that only around 30% of Belarusians support Russia’s invasion, with half of the population opposed to it. “I hope that Belarus isn’t drawn even more into the war than it is now,” said M. “It would be naive to hope for prosperity and co-operation with Europe, so I would like for things to be preserved as they are right now, and not get even worse.”
Despite the international community’s efforts to impose sanctions on Lukashenko’s regime, many locals believe that these measures have done little to hurt the leadership while placing the burden on ordinary citizens. “Europe has shown its ineffectiveness. People no longer believe the words of European politicians. It’s always the people who suffer,” said L.
With Lukashenko’s son, Nikolai, now in his 20s and reportedly being groomed to succeed his father, the prospects for a peaceful transition of power in Belarus seem increasingly remote. “I don’t think it even occurs to him to step down,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, a former British ambassador to Belarus. “He thinks he has a right to rule.”
As Lukashenko prepares to further entrench his rule at the upcoming elections, the spirit of revolution that briefly flourished in Belarus in 2020 appears to have been crushed. For many, the hope of a free and democratic Belarus has faded into the shadows of fear and uncertainty, with little sign of change on the horizon.
