Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is making a bold and risky bet on peace with the Kurds, following an unprecedented call from jailed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Öcalan for his followers to disarm and disband the militant group. If successful, the move could cement Erdoğan’s political dominance and reshape Turkey’s regional strategy, but past failures and deep-seated tensions cast doubt on its viability.
As Financial Times reports, Öcalan’s appeal comes after four decades of conflict that have claimed 40,000 lives. While his influence over the PKK’s 5,000 fighters remains uncertain, Erdoğan stands to gain politically if the call leads to a negotiated settlement. Pro-Kurdish lawmakers could become crucial allies in Erdoğan’s bid to extend his rule beyond 2028, whether by changing the constitution or calling snap elections.
However, peace efforts have collapsed before. Erdoğan’s last attempt at a political solution in 2015 ended in renewed violence, followed by a military crackdown and mass arrests of Kurdish politicians. Many Kurds demand broader political and cultural rights, raising questions about whether a deal focused solely on PKK disarmament can bring lasting peace.
Beyond domestic politics, Erdoğan is also eyeing regional stability. Turkish-backed forces recently overthrew the Assad regime in Syria, but the U.S.-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), dominated by Kurds and linked to the PKK, remain a major obstacle. A successful peace deal at home could strengthen Erdoğan’s case for persuading Washington to cut support for the SDF.
Despite the cautious optimism, PKK commanders warn that peace will not come quickly, and skepticism remains high among Kurds and political analysts alike. Erdoğan’s willingness to make real concessions is unclear, and failure could lead to renewed conflict. But whether the gamble leads to lasting peace or more violence, one thing is certain—Erdoğan will seek to emerge as the ultimate winner.
