Gota became president after Donald Trump became the President of the United States.
Donald Trump became president for the second time after Anura Kumara became president.
Donald Trump is a very unfortunate leader. He did not get much opportunity to show his work during his first term. The reason was the Corona pandemic that began in 2020. He did not control the pandemic properly. During the Corona period, America suffered a serious economic crisis. In 2021, Trump was defeated in a way that was unimaginable even to him, because the country was exhausted by Corona and many Americans saw Trump as a failed leader.
Now, in Trump’s second term in office, he is pushing not only the United States but also the world economy into crisis by waging a war with Iran. Just as world leaders were alarmed by the Corona pandemic, they are now alarmed by Trump’s war with Iran. The reason is that the economies of their respective countries could collapse due to the Iran war, and many leaders fear they may lose the next election because of it. There is no doubt that Trump himself may now be feeling that same fear, despite his earlier confidence.
Gotabaya, who became president with the highest vote share in Sri Lanka—69%—had to flee not only the presidency but also the country because of Corona. Because of the pandemic, Sri Lanka lost foreign tourists. Foreign workers sent fewer dollars. Export earnings also declined. As a result, Sri Lanka lost the foreign reserves needed to pay its annual debts. There were no dollars to import oil and gas. Eventually, Gota had to declare Sri Lanka bankrupt. The SLPP, which had won 69% of the vote, was reduced to less than 3%.
Gota became president in 2019 on a massive wave of support. The two main parties in Sri Lanka, the UNP and the SLFP, were swept away by that wave. With Gota’s victory, many people believed that the Rajapaksa family would rule the country for at least another 25 years. Even though people gave Gota 69% of the vote, they did not realize that he had no real experience in governing a country.
If it were not for Corona, Gota might still be the president today. Under normal circumstances, governing the country would not have been very difficult for him. If Sri Lanka had continued to receive dollars from tourism, foreign workers, and exports, it would not have been a major challenge for Gota to run the country. But then Corona came, and the country faced extraordinary circumstances. Gota had no experience in governing under such conditions. He was caught unprepared, and in the end the country collapsed without him even fully realizing it.
Anura became president in a similar way to how Gota became president. Gota’s political wave was created by the Easter bombings. Anura’s wave was created by the people’s struggle. Gota rose to power after weakening the main parties in Sri Lanka, the UNP and the SLFP. Anura rose to power after the collapse of the most powerful party at the time, the SLPP, and many of its politicians. Gota weakened parties that once seemed impossible to defeat. Anura weakened the Rajapaksa family, who once seemed impossible to remove.
Gota became president in late 2019 and governed the country during the coronavirus period until 2021—about two years. In the first year of the pandemic, he provided free vaccines and gave Rs. 5,000 payments to poor families. During that time, he ruled the country without much opposition.
The first major issue he faced was the oil crisis. Cabinet discussions repeatedly warned that it would be impossible to distribute fuel without either increasing the price or creating shortages. A proposal was made to introduce a rationing system. At the time, the oil minister was Udaya Gammanpila. He traveled around the world trying to buy oil on credit. Even though it was clear that an oil crisis was coming, Gota failed to make a decision. Either fuel prices had to be increased or fuel had to be rationed. Out of fear, he did neither. Within days, fuel queues began to appear. Soon after, gas queues began as well.
It has now been about one and a half years since Anura became president. Like Gota, Anura is also a leader without prior experience in governing the state, although the people did not focus much on that fact. Like Gota, Anura spent his first year stabilizing the country’s system.
Now another unusual situation has arisen because of the Iran war. Anura has also had to face an oil-related problem early in his presidency.
However, the Sri Lankan economy today is not the same as it was when Gota took office in 2019. Gota left in 2022 after declaring the country bankrupt. IMF officials repeatedly warn that Sri Lanka’s economy could collapse again due to external economic pressure.
If the Iran war continues for a long time, Anura may face the same type of crisis that Gota faced. A prolonged Iran war would directly affect oil and gas prices. As a result, commodity prices would increase. There is also a risk that Sri Lankan workers in the Middle East could lose their jobs. Tourism could also be affected.
Will the same thing happen to Gota again?
It is difficult to say. If the Iran war ends quickly, Anura will not face serious problems in the immediate future. But if the global economic crisis created by the Iran war continues, Anura’s second and third years in office will not be as easy as his first year.
Anura inherited a treasury strengthened by the taxes introduced by Ranil and has saved funds for upcoming elections. However, even if the Iran war continues or ends, the money currently saved in the treasury will not be enough for a bankrupt country like Sri Lanka to withstand the economic shocks that could arise as a side effect of the war.
However, it is unlikely that Anura would flee the country like Gota, no matter what crisis arises. Unlike Gota, Anura is a career politician. If necessary, he may call for a snap election. Otherwise, he will remain in power until the end of his term.
Therefore, what the opposition should do is not simply go to Colombo and hold press conferences claiming they are ready to take over the country. Instead, they should prepare the people to win the next election.
