Donald Trump is presenting the latest difficulties in his dealings with Iran as part of a process that will eventually resolve itself. But the signals emerging from Tehran and Israel point to a far more complicated picture, with negotiations over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz stalled, Israel rejecting a 15-point Gaza peace plan backed by Trump, and the US military reportedly pressing its weapons industry to accelerate production.
The US president indicated on Sunday that Washington would, for the time being, refrain from further military attacks on Iran and rely instead on economic pressure. In a telephone interview with the news portal Axios, Trump said: “Wir halten uns zurück” — “We are holding back”. He added: “Wir verhandeln nur so halb mit ihnen” — “We are only half negotiating with them”.
Trump said the United States was instead watching Iran struggle with extremely high inflation and a lack of money. He also highlighted the economic consequences of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, which he said had further worsened the country’s situation. In a post on Truth Social, he similarly wrote that Iran had “kein Geld” — “no money”.
The change in tone comes barely more than a week after Trump threatened massive new attacks on Iran. Those attacks were subsequently suspended after what he described as “Umrisse einer Vereinbarung”, or “outlines of an agreement”, concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Yet there is little indication of a rapid settlement. Tehran demanded substantial concessions from the United States over the weekend before agreeing to reopen the waterway, which is important to international oil and gas trade. According to Iranian media, the country’s National Security Council has attached six conditions to reopening what is effectively a blocked Strait of Hormuz.
Iran is demanding an end to all US threats against the Islamic Republic, a permanent cessation of the war against Iran and its regional allies, the lifting of the naval blockade of Iranian ports and the withdrawal of US forces from the region. It is also demanding full financial compensation for war damage, the complete lifting of sanctions against Iran and the unconditional release of all frozen Iranian assets.
Whether the US government would accept such demands remains doubtful. Trump, however, struck a notably relaxed tone when speaking to Axios. “Es wird sich regeln,” he said — “It will work itself out” — adding: “Es regelt sich immer. Es ist wie eine Schachpartie.” The situation, he suggested, was like a game of chess.
The continuing uncertainty over when the Strait of Hormuz might reopen was already reflected in energy markets on Monday. Brent crude, the North Sea benchmark, rose 1.09 per cent to $84.46 a barrel, while US light crude, WTI, increased 0.78 per cent to $78.79.
The difficulties confronting Trump extend beyond Iran. Israel’s government delivered another setback over the weekend when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the 15-point document associated with the Gaza peace process.
During a cabinet meeting, Netanyahu stated: “Israel lehnt das 15-Punkte-Dokument ab” — “Israel rejects the 15-point document”.
The document is the roadmap of the so-called Gaza Peace Council, an internationally staffed “Board of Peace” established at the beginning of the year as part of a peace plan mediated by Trump. Under its charter, the body is intended to oversee the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip and the post-war order in the devastated coastal territory.
The roadmap includes the disarmament of Hamas and an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu rejected the prospect of an Israeli military withdrawal before Hamas is disarmed. “Die israelische Armee wird keinerlei Abzug vollziehen, bis die Hamas entwaffnet ist,” he said — “The Israeli army will make no withdrawal until Hamas is disarmed.”
Netanyahu made clear that his position applied to all weapons, rather than only heavy weapons. He also reiterated his opposition to an independent Palestinian state, placing another significant obstacle before the framework envisaged by the Gaza Peace Council.
At the same time, the war with Iran is placing demands on the American military establishment. The United States began the war with Iran jointly with Israel at the end of February. Reports have recently intensified that the US military is running short of weapons.
Over the weekend, the Washington Post and CNN reported that the Pentagon had asked representatives of the US arms industry to increase the production and delivery of weapons rapidly. The reports cited a communication from a ministry representative. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell confirmed the authenticity of the document to the German news agency dpa.
The developments coincide with a significant change within Iran’s own security leadership. The American-Israeli air strikes that began the Iran war killed many central figures in the Iranian leadership. Mohsen Resai, a former commander of Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, has now been appointed chairman of Iran’s National Security Council.
Major General Resai is regarded as one of the longest-serving figures in Iran’s power apparatus. He replaces the relatively unknown Brigadier General Mohammed Bagher Solghadr. The appointment could indicate a further consolidation of the IRGC’s influence within the government.
Another unresolved question concerns the public visibility of Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the Iran war, and his son Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed as his successor. Since then, however, he has not appeared publicly.
On Sunday, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard general announced that photographs showing Mojtaba Khamenei in public and at meetings would be released. The general, speaking to the Tasnim news agency, gave no specific timetable, saying only that the images would be published “künftig” — “in the future”.
Khamenei’s office, meanwhile, said that the supreme leader had met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday. According to the office, the two discussed “ausführlich über die Probleme und Herausforderungen des Landes” — “in detail the problems and challenges facing the country” — including the “derzeitigen militärischen Lage und der Zukunftsaussichten”, or “current military situation and future prospects”.
No precise time was given for the meeting. On Wednesday, Pezeshkian had described communication with Khamenei as “momentan sehr schwierig” — “currently very difficult”.
Taken together, the developments present Trump with a series of unresolved challenges. Tehran has attached sweeping conditions to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington is maintaining economic pressure and holding back from further attacks for now. Israel has rejected a key document associated with Trump’s Gaza peace framework, while the Pentagon is reportedly seeking faster weapons production. Inside Iran, meanwhile, the appointment of a veteran IRGC figure to the National Security Council and the continuing absence of Mojtaba Khamenei from public view point to a leadership structure undergoing significant change.
For Trump, the conflicts remain a test not only of military power but also of whether diplomatic and political arrangements can deliver the outcomes his administration is seeking. For now, the latest developments suggest that neither the Iranian negotiations nor the Gaza peace process has reached the straightforward resolution the US president has publicly portrayed.
