There was something revealing about the state of Reform UK in the decision to bring in an immaculately coiffured Frenchman to rally its annual conference. Jordan Bardella, who is expected to become France’s prime minister should Marine Le Pen win the presidency, received an enthusiastic reception from the Reform faithful when he raised the cry: “Long live Reform! Long live Nigel!”
The intervention offered a moment of relief at a conference otherwise dominated by the political difficulties confronting the party and its leader. Inside the cavernous chambers of Birmingham’s National Exhibition Centre, there was a concerted effort to look beyond the latest financial scandal engulfing Reform UK. Instead, supporters were treated to the combative rhetoric of Lee Anderson, the former Conservative who is now the party chair, and Zia Yusuf, Reform’s home affairs spokesman, who boasted that he would oversee “the largest deportation operation in history”.
Nigel Farage himself received a standing ovation before he had even spoken during one of three appearances on the stage over a chaotic Friday.
But beneath the enthusiasm was a more uncomfortable reality. Reform UK no longer looks as certain of its political advance as it did a year ago. When its conference last coincided with the resignation of Angela Rayner, supporters could convince themselves that Labour was collapsing, the Conservatives were stagnating and the future belonged to Reform. Twelve months later, the prospect of a Reform government appears considerably less certain.
The party is facing pressure from further to the right through Rupert Lowe’s Restore, while Labour has overtaken Reform in the polls since the arrival of Andy Burnham. One recent survey placed the Conservatives in second place, pushing Reform into third. The results challenge Farage’s previous confidence that the contest for supremacy on the right had already been settled in his favour.
The purpose of this year’s conference was therefore clear: draw a line beneath a summer of scandal and political turbulence and present Reform as a credible government-in-waiting. Instead, the defining event was the suspension of two of Farage’s senior aides following an undercover investigation.
The investigation secretly recorded the two men appearing to discuss ways of circumventing electoral law in order to secure foreign money for the party. One proposed donation would have amounted to £500,000. Reform may now face another police investigation into its finances. Both men deny wrongdoing.
Farage has sought to minimise the significance of the episode, describing those involved as “a couple of contractors” who had said some “injudicious things”. But the details presented in the source material point to figures considerably closer to the party leadership than that description suggests.
Dan Jukes had worked with Farage for a decade, and some insiders described their relationship as resembling that of father and son. He was recorded drinking outside a Westminster pub while claiming that he would become chief of staff at Number 10 in a Farage government. James Orr, a Cambridge academic who served as Reform’s head of policy, had been presented as part of the party’s intellectual core. He was also recorded discussing fundraising for Reform and telling an undercover reporter: “We could easily get away with it”, while dismissing the Electoral Commission as “completely useless”.
The political difficulty for Farage is not simply the scandal itself. It is that he has had to use the centrepiece of his party conference to reassure supporters that Reform has not broken the law.
That may do little to change the views of the party’s most committed supporters. Many conference attendees remained convinced that a “scared” establishment was attempting to prevent Reform from advancing. Farage has retained the loyalty of a movement that appears deeply resistant to scandals surrounding its leader.
The greater problem lies beyond the conference hall, among voters who have considered supporting Reform but remain undecided. Farage may have secured his seat in Clacton in the August byelection, but winning a parliamentary constituency is not the same as winning the country. The prime minister is chosen nationally, and Farage remains a deeply polarising figure.
According to YouGov figures reported before the latest scandal, only 23% of Britons held a favourable opinion of the Reform leader, while 67% viewed him unfavourably. A majority, 55%, regarded him very unfavourably. Other polling has produced similar results.
For a politician seeking to become prime minister, those figures present a formidable obstacle. Anti-Reform voters are also strongly motivated to unite behind whichever rival is best placed to defeat Farage’s party, making his personal unpopularity particularly significant.
Yet despite these weaknesses, there is little prospect of Reform replacing its leader. Farage remains inseparable from the identity of the party. Suggestions that he might lose interest in becoming prime minister or eventually step aside have generated speculation around the margins of the conference, but not a serious leadership challenge.
Potential alternatives face their own limitations. Zia Yusuf has considerable support among sections of the membership, but his confrontational personality does not appeal universally within the party. Robert Jenrick faces distrust among Reform supporters because of his Conservative background, while his previous role as a Home Office minister presents another complication. Richard Tice has previously sought the leadership without establishing a compelling alternative to Farage.
The party’s dependence on its founder was visible throughout the conference. Reform football shirts on sale at the merchandise stall carried Farage’s name alongside the number 10. His principal speech, in which he threatened to bulldoze the judiciary, civil service and House of Lords if they attempted to resist a Reform government, was met with rapture from the audience.
“I love you all!” Farage told the crowd. The response was equally enthusiastic.
That relationship remains the central strength and weakness of Reform UK. Farage is Reform, and Reform is Farage. His personal appeal has created a powerful political vehicle, but his standing with the wider electorate places a ceiling on how far that vehicle can travel.
The conference was intended to demonstrate that Reform had moved beyond protest politics and was preparing to govern. Instead, it exposed a party still heavily dependent on the personality of its leader, struggling with financial controversy and facing renewed competition from both Labour and the Conservatives, as well as pressure from further to the right.
The turquoise tide that once appeared capable of sweeping established parties before it is now showing signs of retreat. Farage may remain firmly in control of Reform UK, but the assumption that his march towards Downing Street is unstoppable has become considerably harder to sustain.
