The UK and Germany are among the countries most exposed to Chinese economic and political influence, according to a new international index that challenges assumptions about where Beijing has accumulated the greatest leverage.
France, Germany and the UK, Europe’s three largest economies, were ranked among the seven countries globally most exposed to Chinese power in an index developed by researchers at National Taiwan University. The study found that democracies were generally more vulnerable to Chinese influence than autocratic states.
Researchers used computer simulations to assess indicators including trade, foreign investment, military and diplomatic ties, and other forms of influence. The resulting index ranks 184 countries and provides a comparative picture of Chinese power since 2013, the year Xi Jinping became China’s president and Beijing adopted a more assertive diplomatic approach.
George Yin, a senior research fellow at National Taiwan University’s Center for China Studies, said the findings challenged the expectation that China’s greatest influence would be concentrated in poorer countries in Asia, Africa and South America, where Chinese companies have invested heavily in manufacturing and extractive industries.
“These findings contradict the expectation that exposure to Chinese power would be significantly less in Europe than in the Indo-Pacific, given Europe’s geographical insulation from Chinese military reach,” Yin said.
The research is being published jointly by the Global Public Policy Institute and the Mercator Institute for China Studies, two Berlin-based think-tanks that have also examined Europe’s economic exposure to China. The index combines measures ranging from foreign direct investment and trade to military power and softer forms of influence, including Confucius Institutes and pandas in zoos. Researchers said the computational model was designed to reduce the risk of unintentional bias, while giving significant weight to foreign direct investment.
South Korea ranked first globally, while Russia was the most exposed European country. Russia’s position was driven largely by the growth of exports to China, which increased from the equivalent of 1.6 per cent of its GDP in 2013 to a peak of 5.4 per cent in 2023.
The research found that European attempts to reduce exposure to Chinese economic chokepoints had produced only a “modest” effect since the European Union designated China a strategic rival in 2019. The UK, Norway, Switzerland and Sweden have reduced their relative exposure in recent years. Sweden, for example, closed all its Confucius Institutes in 2020 following a diplomatic dispute with Beijing.
Other European economies have moved in the opposite direction. Ireland and Spain increased their reliance on China as Chinese investment expanded. Chinese imports to Spain, which ranked fifth among Europe’s most exposed economies, have almost doubled since 2013. In Ireland, Chinese investment in pharmaceuticals and technology increased sharply, with the stock of Chinese foreign investment reaching nearly $20bn by 2025.
The findings come as China’s role in global supply chains has become a source of leverage in disputes with advanced economies. Beijing has restricted exports of key components, including magnets, while the US and EU have imposed increasing numbers of export controls. The EU is also confronting China over a €1bn-a-day trade deficit, which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has described as “unsustainable”.
Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute, said western governments seeking greater economic resilience needed to be prepared to use their own leverage against Beijing. “Learn to use your own leverage vis-à-vis Beijing and be willing to pay a price for this as you defend your interests — otherwise the outcome will be submission to a Sino-centric economic order,” he said.
