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Manipur’s Deadly Spiral: Ethnic Conflict Spawns a Wider Security Crisis

With 95 conflict-linked deaths in 2026 and renewed Naga-Kuki hostilities, civilian killings and mounting protests expose the limits of efforts to restore stability.

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People block a road in protest after two children were killed and their mother was injured in a bomb attack, in Bishnupur district, Manipur on April 7, 2026

The continuing ethnic conflict in Manipur has entered another volatile phase, with fresh civilian killings, armed confrontations and attacks across the Valley and Hill districts, raising concerns over the deteriorating security situation. The resurgence of Naga-Kuki hostilities, alongside the unresolved Meitei-Kuki conflict, has further complicated the security environment. The latest developments indicate that the violence, which erupted in May 2023, remains unresolved and is increasingly complicated by overlapping ethnic tensions, the activities of multiple armed groups and declining public confidence in the State Government’s ability to ensure civilian security.

On October 20, 2026, a 44-year-old Kuki civilian, Paolenmung Thangeo, was shot dead while collecting wild bamboo shoots in a forest near Leimakhong in Kangpokpi District. According to the P. Muolding Village Authority and the P. Muolding Youth Club, Thangeo had entered the forest with another villager, Laldenga, who reportedly escaped. The village bodies alleged that cadres of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and the Zeliangrong United Front-Kamson (ZUF-K) were responsible for the killing, though the allegations have not been independently verified.

The latest major (involving three or more fatalities) incident in the Valley occurred on October 19, 2026, when three Meitei civilians were killed in an ambush while collecting firewood in the Khongban Sunurok hill range near the boundary of Imphal East and Kangpokpi districts. The victims were identified as Arubam Ronil, Lairenlakpam Inaobi and Kshetrimayum Sushil. They were among a group of villagers who came under fire while collecting and transporting firewood. Several others were injured.

The killings triggered widespread protests across Manipur’s Valley districts. On October 19, 2026, demonstrators brought the bodies of two victims to the residence of Chief Minister Yumnam Khemchand Singh in Imphal, demanding immediate action against those responsible. The Native People’s Committee Manipur (NPCM) subsequently called a 48-hour statewide general strike, beginning at midnight on October 19, while the Ireipak Kanba Apunba Lup (IKAL, Organisation for Saving the Motherland) announced a separate 24-hour shutdown. The organisations demanded stronger security arrangements, a transparent and time-bound investigation, the identification and removal of unauthorised militant camps, and a clear decision on the Suspension of Operations (SoO) Agreements with militant groups. The NPCM also demanded the resignation of Deputy Chief Minister Nemcha Kipgen.

On October 22, 2026, protests and sit-ins spread across the Valley districts following a call by a newly formed Joint Action Committee (JAC). Demonstrators demanded the resignations of Chief Minister Yumnam Khemchand Singh, Deputy Chief Minister Nemcha Kipgen and Member of Parliament A. Sarda Devi, accusing the political leadership of failing to protect civilians. Educational institutions remained closed in the Valley districts. In Imphal, security personnel clashed with members of the All India Students Federation (AISF) near Kangla Gate, after protesters attempted to march towards the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters. Several demonstrators were detained. Hundreds of women vendors from Khwairamband Ima Keithel (Khwairamband Mother’s Market) also closed their shops and participated in rallies, questioning official assurances that movement within the State was safe.

The protests reflect mounting frustration over the continued loss of civilian lives despite the formation of a new government in February 2026, following the revocation of President’s Rule. The opposition also questioned claims that normalcy was returning, pointing to continued killings, abductions, arson and displacement. The latest attacks have reinforced concerns that civilians remain exposed to violence even when undertaking essential activities outside their villages. The protests represent not only anger over particular incidents, but also wider dissatisfaction with the pace of security restoration and the lack of confidence in official assurances.

The Government responded with intensified security operations and arrests. On October 20, 2026, a joint team comprising Manipur Police, the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and the Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) arrested three suspected Kuki militants in Imphal West District, in connection with the October 19 killings. Additional Director General of Police (Law and Order) Lhari Dorjee Lhatoo alleged that two of the suspects were involved in the attack and had reportedly confessed during preliminary questioning. Subsequent raids led to the recovery of 12 firearms, including INSAS, AK-47, sniper and M16 rifles, a Lethod gun (crowd-control projectile launcher) and a makeshift rocket launcher. Security personnel also seized 1,099 rounds of ammunition, grenades, a locally made ‘Pompi bomb’ (modified shells used as explosive devices), communication equipment, tactical uniforms and poppy seeds. The recovery highlighted the continued availability of sophisticated weapons and explosive devices in the conflict-affected areas.

The arrests and weapons recovery coincided with renewed scrutiny of the SoO arrangements with Kuki militant groups. On October 23, 2026, Manipur Home Minister Govindas Konthoujam stated that the agreements had expired in the first week of September 2026 and had not been renewed. He added that the State and Central Governments were considering whether to continue the arrangement amid strong public opposition. The statement followed a security operation at the designated Sinai Camp in connection with the killing of the three Meitei civilians. Of the 18 people found at the camp, only one was verified as a cadre of the Kuki National Front (KNF) covered by the former agreements. The remaining 17, whose status as cadres covered by the arrangement could not be verified, were detained for further investigation.

The SoO agreement, originally signed in 2008 between the Governments of India, the Government of Manipur and Kuki armed groups, represented by the Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and the United People’s Front (UPF), was intended to suspend hostilities and regulate the activities of participating organisations. Its continuation has remained contentious since the outbreak of ethnic violence in May 2023, with Meitei organisations repeatedly demanding its abrogation. The latest killings have intensified these demands, while the Government’s decision not to renew the agreement has introduced further uncertainty into the security framework governing the participating groups.

The Valley violence is unfolding alongside a separate but increasingly dangerous pattern of Naga-Kuki confrontation in the Hill districts. On October 18, 2026, a Nepalese couple, Sandip Dahal (35) and his wife, Bepanah Dahal (29), sustained bullet injuries after unidentified assailants opened fire on National Highway 202, between Mahadev and Guwaltabi villages, in Kamjong District.

On October 17, 2026, one person, Seikhohao Haokip (35), was killed and another five were injured in a reported attack on Chassad village in Kamjong District. Local residents reported that armed assailants opened fire on the village from the direction of the Chassad Police Station. On the same day, three Tangkhul Naga civil defence volunteers were injured in a separate firing incident at the Kamjong District Headquarters. The Naga Village Guard (NVG), Eastern Command, accused cadres of the Kuki National Army-Burma (KNA-B) and Village Volunteers of Eastern Zone (VVEZ) of involvement and claimed that its guards retaliated.

Earlier, on October 15, 2026, a Kuki woman, Hatneikim Haokip, was reportedly killed in a suspected ambush between Molnoi and Phaikoh in Kamjong District. Her husband sustained bullet injuries, while two other civilians travelling with them were reported missing. The Kuki Inpi Manipur (KIM) alleged that NSCN-IM cadres were responsible.

On October 10, 2026, two Tangkhul Naga civilians, Leishisan Hungyo and his nephew Ngachanso Ningshen, were reportedly killed in an ambush at Ningchou village, while three suspected Kuki militants were reported killed in the ensuing confrontation. Separate attacks were also reported at Makui Ashang and Tapon Liangmai villages in Kangpokpi District on the same day, where three village guards and one civilian were reportedly killed. The accumulation of such incidents indicates that the violence has spread beyond the original Meitei-Kuki confrontation and is increasingly affecting relations among multiple communities.

The use of explosives and attacks on security personnel have added to the deterioration. On October 18, 2026, three CRPF personnel were injured in an improvised explosive device (IED) blast near Singjamei Police Station in Imphal West District. No organisation had claimed responsibility till the time of writing.

On October 8, 2026, a Rapid Action Force (RAF) head constable Dhananjay Rai was injured in a grenade attack at New Lambulane in Imphal East District.

On October 6, 2026, a woman was injured after being caught in crossfire between suspected NSCN-IM and Zeliangrong United Front-Jenchui (ZUF-J) cadres at Bunruang village in Noney District.

On October 4, 2026, a 71-year-old Kuki man, Hemjang Haokip, was found dead in the S. Golai area of Kangpokpi District, Manipur, after he was allegedly abducted by NSCN-IM AND ZUF-K militants from his farm on October 3.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Manipur has recorded 95 insurgency-linked fatalities in 48 incidents in 2026, comprising 68 civilians, 24 militants and three Security Force (SF) personnel. This compares with 58 fatalities during 2025 and 87 during 2024. Since the outbreak of ethnic violence in May 2023, at least 393 insurgency-linked fatalities have been recorded in 181 incidents, including 188 civilians, 176 terrorists, 28 SF personnel and one fatality in the not-specified category.

The 95 fatalities recorded in 2026 already exceed the totals for both 2024 (87) and 2025 (58), making the current year the deadliest of the three. The high civilian toll and the frequency of attacks indicate that the security situation remains volatile despite changes in the State’s political administration.

The resurgence of Kuki-Naga hostilities has particular significance because the two communities have a history of violent disputes over territory, traditional authority and political representation. The current escalation suggests that these historical fault lines have re-emerged amid the prolonged Meitei-Kuki conflict. The involvement or alleged involvement of organisations such as NSCN-IM, NSCN/GPRN-Aleng, KNA-B and Kuki National Front-Presidential (KNF-P), alongside village defence formations and local volunteers, has fragmented the security environment. Incidents near the Indo-Myanmar border also raise concerns about the movement of armed cadres and weapons, although the precise scale of cross-border support cannot be established from the reported incidents alone.

The persistence of violence reflects the interaction of unresolved ethnic and territorial disputes, the proliferation of armed groups and inadequate public confidence in security arrangements. The Meitei-Kuki confrontation remains unresolved, while Kuki-Naga hostilities have reopened an additional source of instability in the Hill districts. Civilian killings, attacks on villages and the use of sophisticated weapons risk deepening community polarisation and encouraging retaliatory violence. The absence of a durable political settlement has also left local disputes vulnerable to escalation, particularly in areas where competing territorial claims and armed organisations overlap.

The latest killings and protests demonstrate that Manipur’s crisis cannot be addressed through isolated security operations or political assurances alone. The expansion of violence across the Valley and Hill districts points to a complex conflict involving multiple ethnic fault lines and armed actors. Unless the Government combines effective civilian protection with accountability, credible weapons control and sustained political dialogue, the State will remain trapped in a cycle of violence, public anger and retaliatory mobilisation. The expiry of the SoO agreement adds urgency to the need for a coherent security strategy, but lasting stability will ultimately depend on addressing the public grievances and conditions that continue to sustain the conflict.

Afsara Shaheen

Dr. Afsara Shaheen is a Research Associate at the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi, India

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