An extreme heatwave that struck Central Asia last month was at least 4°C hotter due to the ongoing climate crisis, with researchers warning that temperatures could have been up to 10°C warmer than in a pre-industrial climate. This alarming finding comes from a new study published by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, which analyzed soaring temperatures in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan during March 2024.
The heatwave, which saw some areas experience temperatures up to 15°C above average, is expected to become far more common as global temperatures continue to rise. In some parts of Central Asia, highs approached 30°C—unprecedented for the spring season in a region not traditionally known for blistering heatwaves.
“This kind of change seems unreal,” said Dr. Ben Clarke, co-author of the study and a researcher at Imperial College London. “But fossil fuel burning is fundamentally altering the climate faster than humans have ever experienced.”
The study highlights that the extreme temperatures had significant impacts on the region’s environment and economy. Glaciers, which are a critical source of water for drinking, farming, and hydropower, are melting at an accelerating rate, threatening essential water supplies. Rivers such as the Syr Darya, which is shared by multiple countries in the region, are at risk of reduced flow, raising the possibility of water shortages and even conflict.
The heatwave also coincided with a critical period for agriculture, endangering crops like almonds, apricots, and cherries, which faced premature fruit drop due to the extreme temperatures. Wheat harvests, already under threat from ongoing drought conditions, are also expected to be affected.
Dr. Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, emphasized that the heatwave is a stark example of how even small increases in global temperatures can have large, cascading effects. “Climate change is death by a thousand cuts,” Dr. Otto said. “This heatwave didn’t make headlines, but it is impacting agriculture harvests, glacier-fed water systems, and people’s health.”
The WWA study estimates that similar springtime heatwaves in Central Asia can now be expected approximately once every three years. Without drastic reductions in emissions, such extreme weather events are likely to become both hotter and more frequent.
The study’s findings come as the World Meteorological Organization and Europe’s Copernicus confirm that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record, with global temperatures now 1.5°C higher than pre-industrial levels. This alarming trend underscores the urgent need for action to curb fossil fuel emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change.
The researchers’ analysis is part of a growing body of work by the WWA group, which has conducted more than 90 attribution studies linking human-induced climate change to the intensification of extreme weather events around the world. As the planet continues to warm, similar heatwaves and other extreme weather events are expected to occur with increasing frequency, exacerbating the challenges faced by vulnerable regions like Central Asia.
