Ukraine has issued a strong warning about the potentially “really damaging” consequences if the European Union fails to extend its emergency trade measures, which are set to expire on June 5. The trade measures, introduced after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, lifted tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian exports to support the country’s economy during the war. However, as the deadline approaches, Ukraine faces uncertainty about continued support, with concerns over both the expiration of these measures and a potential decline in long-term backing from the United States.
Serhiy Marchenko, Ukraine’s finance minister, stressed the importance of the EU’s trade relationship with Ukraine, saying it would be “really damaging” if the country were to revert to pre-war trade conditions. “The European Union is our key trade partner, and that’s why it would be really damaging for us if we [found] ourselves in a situation which we had before the war,” Marchenko told the Financial Times. The trade measures, referred to as “autonomous trade measures” (ATMs), account for nearly 10% of Ukraine’s $41 billion export revenue in 2024, making them crucial to funding the ongoing war effort.
Ukraine’s reliance on EU exports has put immense pressure on both Ukrainian and European officials, with the expiration deadline approaching fast. Both sides are racing against time to finalize a deal that would either extend the current arrangements or transition to a broader market access framework. However, negotiations have been slow, and there is concern that a deal may not be reached in time. “It would be a very wrong signal if we do not reach some kind of agreement with the EU,” Marchenko added, underscoring the urgency of the situation.
Some EU member states have pushed back on the extension of the trade measures, particularly countries like Poland, which fears that increased Ukrainian agricultural imports could undercut local farmers. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria had previously imposed unilateral bans on Ukrainian agricultural imports in violation of the EU’s common trade policy. These political dynamics have complicated efforts to renew the trade measures, as countries seek to protect their domestic industries.
During the last renewal of the trade measures, Poland, France, and Hungary demanded an “emergency brake” mechanism, which would impose tariffs on Ukrainian exports such as eggs, sugar, oats, and honey if their volumes exceeded certain thresholds. The measure was intended to safeguard local prices and protect farmers in these countries from the impact of cheap Ukrainian imports.
Vitaliy Koval, Ukraine’s agriculture minister, has called on Poland to use its upcoming six-month presidency of the EU to push through the extension of the trade deal. Koval emphasized that Poland has the opportunity to take a leadership role in ensuring the continued flow of Ukrainian exports into the EU market. However, EU officials acknowledge that there is little political will in Poland to further liberalize trade with Ukraine, especially with Polish presidential elections looming in May. Countries like Slovakia and Hungary, which have been more sympathetic to Russia, are also expected to oppose such moves.
Given the stalled negotiations under Article 29 of the EU, which allows for reciprocal trade liberalization with third countries, it is now “too late” for a comprehensive deal to be reached before the June deadline. An EU official noted that a temporary renewal of the existing agreement is the most likely fallback option, a move that would be more favorable for Ukraine than reverting to pre-invasion trade terms.
A spokesperson for the European Commission confirmed that proposals to advance reciprocal tariff liberalization would be presented to Ukraine soon. However, Ukrainian officials stressed that they need predictability in their exports and cannot afford to negotiate a new deal in the final days before the current agreement expires.
The expiration of the trade measures could also exacerbate Ukraine’s financial difficulties at a time when uncertainty over U.S. military support looms large. “Without support from the United States we’d be in a very dramatic situation… because we cannot easily substitute it,” Marchenko warned, highlighting the difficult position Ukraine faces as it navigates both the geopolitical tensions and the ongoing economic strain of the war.
