Donald Trump’s push for a new era of American energy dominance is set to face resistance from Wall Street, according to US shale executives, who argue that investor caution and economic pressures will hinder any significant drilling surge.
Despite Trump’s inaugural pledge to harness “liquid gold” under America’s feet to combat inflation and boost prosperity, industry insiders doubt a repeat of the shale boom seen in the past decade. Analysts from Rystad Energy and Wood Mackenzie predict US oil output under Trump’s term will rise by less than 1.3 million barrels per day—far below the 1.9 million b/d increase achieved during Joe Biden’s presidency.
“The incentive to just drill, baby, drill . . . I just don’t believe that companies are going to do that,” said Wil VanLoh, CEO of Quantum Energy Partners. VanLoh, echoing other executives, emphasized that Wall Street’s financial priorities—not political agendas—will dictate production levels.
Trump has already signed executive orders to boost oil and gas supplies, cut Biden-era regulations, and declare a national energy emergency. Yet, producers are signaling caution, with major players like Chevron and ConocoPhillips cutting or maintaining spending levels to appease investors who demand capital discipline.
Lower oil prices are also undercutting Trump’s ambitions. With US oil prices hovering around $74 a barrel, well below the $84 threshold needed to spur significant drilling, analysts from JPMorgan predict further declines to $64 by year’s end, leading to slower activity.
Even in the face of deregulation, the economic realities of softer crude prices and dwindling prime drilling locations in areas like Texas’s Permian Basin will continue to curb growth. Wall Street’s influence on energy companies, executives warn, ensures that any significant rise in output will remain tempered, regardless of political support for fossil fuels.
As Ben Dell, managing partner at energy investment firm Kimmeridge, succinctly put it: “Prices will be a bigger signal than politics.”
