Arpita Hazarika

Dr Arpita Hazarika is a Gauhati University, Assam, India-based researcher. She is interested in refugee affairs, political economy, security and strategic affairs, and foreign policies of the Asia-Pacific region. With numerous foreign exposures, she has conducted research works on India-Bangladesh affairs.

Should ICC be equally active not only in Ukraine but also in Myanmar?

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It has been two years since the military coup in Southeast Asia’s Myanmar. The military junta came to power after overthrowing the democratically elected government on charges of corruption. Myanmar has been under the leadership of the country’s military chief Min Aung Hlaing since February 1, 2021. For more than two years, the military government has repressed the people’s movement and protest demanding democracy. According to various international organizations, at least 2,000 people have been killed and more than 15,000 arrested in the junta’s crackdown; At least another 1 million have been displaced. Even then, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has not seen any role in the beleaguered country.

The people of Myanmar may be in solidarity with their Ukrainian brethren, but they have every reason to be infuriated by the contrasting response from the international community to the crisis they face at home.

Western nations and key Asian allies responded within days to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with tough sanctions and weapon supplies. The international reaction to the bloody military takeover in Myanmar one year ago has been half-hearted by comparison.

There is a degree of racism. The West is quick to defend a fellow and easily identifiable Western state. In part, it speaks to diaspora politics in the West, given the presence of Ukrainian communities in the U.S. and across Europe, something Myanmar does not enjoy to the same extent.

The types of Russian weapons used in Ukraine are also killing people in Myanmar, an independent United Nations expert has said, urging countries at the UN to form a coalition — as they had done after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine — to put pressure on Myanmar’s military rulers. UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, said that a coalition of countries should target Myanmar’s military with sanctions and an arms embargo.

Following the military coup, in April 2021, Myanmar’s pro-democracy and elected representatives formed the National Unity Government (NUG). They formed a government against the junta and announced the acceptance of the mandate of the ICC. The ICC also recognized the declaration. The NUG originally requested the ICC to investigate the junta’s war crimes and crimes against humanity in Myanmar. Because the political leaders know very well that there is no possibility of trial in the courts of that country. And that is why Myanmar, a country of 55 million, is now looking to the international organization in the hope of justice.

But sadly, the ICC is not as active in Myanmar as it is in investigating the crimes committed in Ukraine. This raises the question of many, is the ICC more concerned about the suffering of the West? Myanmar and Ukraine lend themselves to comparison, but the differences in international response are revealing. Why have many countries in the Indo-Pacific responded more forcefully to Ukraine than to Myanmar? Ye Myo Hein and Lucas Myers argue that the “democracy versus authoritarianism” framing is not persuasive to many regional actors, who are more interested in defending the norms of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Additionally, their findings expose differences in risk tolerance and interests regarding global order between Russia and China.

Russia-Ukraine recently marked one year of direct conflict. Just a few days after the start of the conflict, the ICC representative went there and started investigating the incident. The International Criminal Court even issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Putin on Friday (March 17) for war crimes. Although the Myanmar conflict has passed twice as long, there is still no ICC activity there.

Political analysts say that since the ICC has recognized the NUG’s declaration, the ICC must send a team of investigators like Ukraine to find the truth and announce a fair trial against the perpetrators. This will increase the transparency of this international organization and make it a place of trust for the affected countries.

But here comes a question. That is, whether the anti-junta NUG government can represent Myanmar at the ICC. According to an analysis published in The Diplomat, a Washington DC-based online news outlet, the Government of National Unity has the power to make this representation. According to the authors of the analysis, John Daugaard, Chris Gunes, Tommy Thomas, Yuyun Wahuningram and Ralph Wilde, according to domestic law, the NUG is the legitimate government of Myanmar. Because according to the 2008 constitution, these representatives were elected through popular vote in 2020. Thus, they have no chance of being illegitimate even if they are repressed by the junta; Their government formation is completely legal.

On the other hand, the junta seized power through a military coup, in clear violation of Articles 71(a) and 417 of the country’s constitution. These articles contain clear instructions for the impeachment of the President and the imposition of a state of emergency. But according to the rules it was not followed. On the contrary, the military has taken power by force, ignoring the protests of the people and putting the democratically elected people, including the president, in jail.

As a result, analysts say, the military’s seizure of power in this way is completely illegal.

At the end of 2021, the UN removed the junta representative from its General Assembly and allowed the NUG representative to represent Myanmar at the meeting. The International Labor Organization (ILO) also agreed with this decision of the United Nations. As a result, the ICC must now accept the NUG’s declaration as valid. There should be fair investigation and prosecution of the crimes committed and committed there.

The UN Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar was established in 2017 by the United Nations to investigate the persecution of the Rohingya minority in Myanmar. Analysts believe that a similar investigation committee should be formed against the illegal junta government. And through this they are of the opinion that justice should be ensured for the common people of Myanmar. The people of the country have been waiting for justice for a long time. So, the state, UN and ICC should take appropriate steps in this regard. ICC should be equally active not only in Ukraine but also in Myanmar.

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Significance of ‘India-Bangladesh friendship pipeline diplomacy’

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India will begin exporting diesel to neighbouring Bangladesh through a pipeline this month after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bangladeshi counterpart Sheikh Hasina inaugurate the cross-border oil pipeline on 18 March.

“Good news is India will send us diesel, the (oil) pipeline has been completed. The two premiers will inaugurate the pipeline on 18 March,” Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dr AK Abdul Momen said.

The India-Bangladesh cross-border pipeline will be inaugurated by the Prime Ministers of Bangladesh and India virtually.

India-Bangladesh friendship pipeline

Till now, Bangladesh used to import diesel from India through railway carriages. The announcement of India-Bangladesh friendship pipeline (IBFPL) launch by Momen came a week after he held talks with Indian counterpart, India’s External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar on the sidelines of the G20 Foreign Ministers’ meeting last week in New Delhi.

India-Bangladesh oil pipeline

India would export diesel to Bangladesh through the 130-km pipeline.

The India-Bangladesh oil pipeline has been constructed at a cost of Rs 3.46 billion and has been drawn from the Indian line of credit (LoC).

The pipeline stretched 125-kilometre inside Bangladesh territory and 5-kilometre inside India.

The cross-border pipeline will carry fuel from Assam-based Numaligarh Refinery Ltd’s (NRL) marketing terminal at Siliguri in eastern Indian state of West Bengal to the Parbatipur depot of Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC).

The mechanical works of the project was completed on 12 December last year. The ground breaking ceremony for IBFPL was held in September 2018 in the presence of PM Modi and PM Hasina through video conferencing.

During his meeting with Hasina in 2017, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to finance the cross-border pipeline with a capacity of one million metric tonne per annum (MMTPA)..

The project once completed will solve the problem that 100,000-ton tankers cannot dock at Chittagong Port, Bangladesh, and must rely on maritime ships to transport crude oil.

The pipeline with India will cut transportation cost of fuel oil for Bangladesh by 50 percent, State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid has said. State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid on Friday said the Bangladesh-India Friendship Pipeline will effectively contribute to the country’s energy security. 

“It [the pipeline] will be a milestone in providing quick and uninterrupted fuel supply to the northern region of the country in a cost-effective manner,”

During a visit to the receipt terminal at Parbatipur in Dinajpur on Friday, Nasrul described the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline as groundbreaking in Bangladesh’s energy history. “It will ensure energy security and low-cost fuel.”

In the near future, Bangladesh needs to transition from conventional energy sources to ensure its energy security and long-term sustainability. Following the Ukraine crisis, energy security has become a major concern for developing and least-developed countries. In this context, cross-border energy cooperation and revitalising the idea of the power corridor could perhaps help Bangladesh to mitigate its energy crisis.

Friendly and warm relations between Bangladesh and India since the birth of Bangladesh in 1971. In any time of crisis, India and Bangladesh have got each other’s side just like a close mother. Be it the current corona epidemic, or the liberation war of 1971. However, the whole world is currently in a turmoil due to the post-pandemic wartime global crisis. Along with the political and economic crisis, the energy crisis has also intensified. Bangladesh is also in the grip of this crisis. To solve this global energy crisis, Bangladesh government has decided to reduce energy consumption. Importing fuel oil at an affordable price was very important for Bangladesh to reduce this cost. Although talks were started with countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Brunei about the import of fuel oil, Bangladesh’s neighboring friendly country India was the first to come forward to supply fuel.

The initiation of multi-dimensional avenues of cooperation with Bangladesh is only possible because of its geographical proximity to India. A prime example of this is the import of diesel from India through pipelines. These imports will ensure maximum utilization of Bangladesh’s geographical proximity to India. Diesel will arrive in the pipeline from India in June this year. Once this diesel starts coming in, it will be profitable for both Bangladesh and India. In this diesel trade, both countries will benefit economically and Bangladesh will be able to face its energy crisis more firmly. India will also benefit from it. India will earn revenue through this diesel export. India has already expressed a positive attitude towards increasing cooperation with Bangladesh. Not only that, recently Bangladesh-India has signed several agreements and memorandum of understanding to increase bilateral trade and investment.

Bangladesh-India diesel trade

Since 2017, India-Bangladesh diesel trade has been going on through railways. About 2,200 tonnes of diesel is sent from Numaligarh Refinery Limited through West Bengal Railway every month. This transportation cost was very expensive for Bangladesh Petroleum Company. When this pipeline is operational, the supply of fuel in the country will increase significantly and the cost of transporting fuel by rail will be reduced. As the demand for diesel is highest in 16 districts of northern region during Aman and Boro season, the government decided to import this fuel through pipeline. If the project is implemented, diesel will reach consumer level in 16 districts of Rangpur and Rajshahi divisions within a short period of time. As a result, besides saving a huge amount of money, it will be able to provide it to the farmers at a low cost in a short period of time. This export of India will not only strengthen Bangladesh’s economic relationship with India but also strengthen the bond of friendship during energy crisis as well as dollar crisis. Apart from ensuring uninterrupted, cheap and fast fuel supply, the cross-border pipeline is also expected to help reduce system losses through petty pilferage due to rail transport.

India-Bangladesh Partnership Pipeline Agreement

An agreement was signed between the two countries in November 2018 to implement the India-Bangladesh Partnership Pipeline Agreement project. The work of this project started in March 2020. whose term was till June 2022; But the project has been extended till July 2023 as the pace of work has slowed down due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Now the construction of this Bangladesh-India friendship pipeline is almost at the final stage. The 131.57 km long pipeline project connects Siliguri and Parvatipur, Dinajpur in West Bengal. Out of the total length of the pipeline, 126.50 km is inside Bangladesh and the remaining 5.07 km is in India. Out of the construction cost of Tk 520 crore, Government of India is contributing Tk 303 crore and BPC is paying the remaining Tk 217 crore. About 1 million metric tons of diesel can be imported from India annually through this pipeline. However, in the initial phase, two and a half lakh tons will be imported. According to the 15-year agreement, the import volume will increase by 4 to 5 MT annually.

Light of hope in times of crisis?

When Bangladesh along with the rest of the world is troubled by the energy crisis, this diesel business is showing a kind of light of hope. An alternative source of diesel import is being created for Bangladesh through this pipeline. According to Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation data, Bangladesh imports 6.5 million tons of fuel oil annually. Among these imported fuels, 4 million tons of diesel are imported annually. About fifty percent of the imported fuel will come to this country by reducing the significant amount of transportation cost through this pipeline.

Moreover, according to Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation data, currently the average premium cost per barrel (159 litres) of fuel oil (including freight) is $10. If this fuel is imported from India, it costs eight dollars. A reduction of two dollars per barrel can save about $1.5 million per 100,000 tons. Apart from taking less time for fuel supply, the people of 16 districts of the northern region will be able to enjoy this benefit. So, importing from India will also save foreign exchange. Now if it is possible to import in rupees instead of dollars, our dollar crisis will be reduced to some extent. Later, if India gives some price concession to Bangladesh, Bangladesh may benefit more.

Exporter India on the other hand can earn foreign currency inflows from its export earnings and invest it in other sectors to benefit economically. Even if India exports refined oil to Bangladesh at cheaper prices, it will bring overall economic benefits to both countries. India and Bangladesh through bilateral and multilateral energy cooperation can address the global problem of high energy prices in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war. When diesel starts coming in, the India-Bangladesh alliance pipeline, if properly managed, could be a prime example of bilateral energy cooperation. Not only this, it will usher in a new dimension in energy cooperation between India and Bangladesh.

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The devastation of war and the G-20 summit

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The last world war brought the world to the brink of destruction. At that time, the world leadership of the time came forward to return to the path of peace. Today, that responsibility has fallen on world leaders. Everyone has to play an active role in making the world peaceful, prosperous and safe. This is what is needed most at the moment. Due to the conflict in Ukraine, climate change and the global crisis of the Covid pandemic, supply systems around the world are on the brink of collapse. There are shortages of daily necessities around the world. All around moaning. The plight of the poor in every country is dire. Especially poor countries are under threat. Daily life has become difficult for them. Undoubtedly, multilateral institutions like the United Nations have failed to deal with this crisis.

All have failed in the necessary reforms. Because of that, the expectations of the world’s people towards the G20 leadership have increased. In the last conference, Indonesian President Joko Yudodo called for unity and said, we have no other way. Saving the world requires cooperation. The G20 should act as a catalyst for economic recovery. It is not right to divide the world into different parts. We cannot walk down the path of being embroiled in another “age war”. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at the G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, that everyone should find a way to end the war in Ukraine. That responsibility is on everyone today. This is not a time for war. Everyone should try to find ways to get back on the diplomatic track. Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022 against the US-led imperialist war alliance NATO’s continued expansion into Eastern Europe and Ukraine’s complicity in that plot. And this is where the global recession began.

Developed Western countries including America, Britain, Germany, France have been helping Ukraine with weapons, technology and other necessary aspects since the beginning. According to Russia, the goal of the imperialist camp was to put Ukraine on the path to conflict and seize Russia’s vast natural resources. Just like in the past, the Americans recklessly attacked Arab countries like Iraq and Libya. During the discussion at the UN, India’s representative also pointed out the limitations of the proposal. He said, the proposal is not compatible with New Delhi’s desired solution to end the war that has been going on for more than a year and for a far-reaching peace. In fact, Russia also knows that occupying Ukraine is no longer possible. And anti-Russian Western countries also need to understand that overthrowing Putin is not so simple. If Putin is cornered, the whole world, including Ukraine, may become more miserable in the future. China is on Putin’s side. This relationship between the President of China and Putin is not a personal matter. It should be seen from the perspective of international politics. Now in this situation the G-20 conference was held in India. In the first week of March, the meeting of the foreign ministers of the G20 member countries was held. Bangladesh also got special importance there as a special invited country. The main reason for Bangladesh’s importance is its geo-strategic position. At the same time, financial and social progress of Bangladesh in this subcontinent and good relations with India. The heads of state of the Western countries, including US President Joe Biden, who have visited Kiev, now have only one goal to provide more weapons to Ukraine.

Even European countries like Switzerland and Sweden, which were the pioneers of the peace process, have now joined the ranks of these arms suppliers. There is no disagreement that what Russia is doing under the leadership of Vladimir Putin is wrong. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Putin and publicly urged him to stop the war. He did not support this war. But does continuing to arm Ukraine and fuel the conflict bear a message of peace? A year has passed since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The destruction still continues. The damage is only increasing every moment. This Russian attack is not only destroying Ukraine’s economy, but also damaging the world’s prospects for recovery in the post-Covid era.

Protracted war can take dire shape at any moment. It is necessary for all countries to take initiative to stop the war immediately. But do we see that initiative as much as it needs? Meanwhile, India did not vote again on the resolution brought to the United Nations regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. Out of the 193 member states of the General Assembly, 141 countries voted in favor of the resolution. Seven countries voted against. And a total of 32 countries including India, China, Bangladesh abstained from voting. Now abstaining from this vote does not mean that India and Bangladesh are supporting this Russian aggression. Whatever India is doing in terms of its foreign policy, it is doing it in dialogue with Bangladesh, in consultation with Bangladesh. In this regard, the anti-war foreign policy of India and Bangladesh seems to be quite compatible.

Another recent sign of this diplomacy is that the nuclear power equipment of Bangladesh, which has been delayed for a long time, was not arriving in Bangladesh, which was supposed to come to Bangladesh from Russia and was stopped midway, in opposition to NATO, openly opposed by the United States. Now it appears that it is reaching Bangladesh. And reaching through India. That is, India is also doing a diplomatic mission in this regard and India has made arrangements to deliver the equipment due to Bangladesh. Therefore, equipment for Rooppur nuclear power plant is coming from Russia via India. As previously discussed, it was later stalled for some time due to US pressure. But India managed to uncomplicate it through diplomatic missions. As a result, the relationship between India and Bangladesh is getting stronger. This situation has further progressed at the G-20 summit in Delhi. Recently National Security Advisor Ajit Doval went to Russia. He met with Putin and Russian representatives. The most important fact is that despite being Russia’s friend, China has also taken a new initiative to stop this war. China has started a mission in this regard. China’s statement is that this time Russia should also follow the path of peace. A discussion should be started, so that different states go on the path of discussion like this. Why is China taking this initiative? This is because China also understands that if this war is not allowed to stop, the situation will worsen. The situation of China’s terrible conflict with America will become more complicated. And anyway, China is not ready for any war. Not for World War III. Narendra Modi has also started a track two dialogue with China. The discussion also suggested that Russia should stop the war in Ukraine and that Russia should not be targeted again by Ukraine. Modi has also created an environment for talks with China’s Xi Jinping to build that understanding with the western countries as well. There is a possibility that this peace message will be created around the summit of G-20.

Discussions have even started in India’s diplomatic circles about the solution formula to stop the Modi-Xi Jinping war. However, the G20 is the forum of the world’s major developed and developing economies. The forum is a platform for discussion on various global issues such as global economy as well as climate change mitigation and sustainable development. G20 countries control about 85 percent of global GDP. Members of this group also control more than 75 percent of global trade. Besides, this alliance is also full of human resources. About two-thirds of the world’s total population are members of this group. The Group of Twenty or G-20 was formed in 1999 in the wake of the global economic crisis. It was basically a meeting of finance ministers of various states and central bank governors. The aim of the meeting was to formulate effective policies to solve the global economic and financial crisis. At present, the summits of this forum are attended by the heads of state, finance ministers, foreign ministers and senior government officials of each member country. Therefore, there has been a lot of discussion in this conference to establish world peace. Russia-Ukraine war, Sino-US tensions, rising inflation, threat of recession in global economy, nuclear threat from North Korea and the most alarming thing is rising global temperature.

But the G-20 alliance must play an influential role in ending the war. The next generation cannot be pushed into another Cold War. A 16-page conference resolution said most members strongly condemned the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. It also states that the war is causing immense human suffering and putting a strain on the global economy. Keeping these considerations in mind, all the leaders coming to the G-20 conference this year will be active in solving the crisis through discussion instead of war – this is the expectation of the people of the world.

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Myanmar’s audacious military coup: Two Years On

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Today is 1st February 2023. The daring military takeover in Myanmar two years ago on February 1 will be remembered as the start of the most oppressive administration in recent memory on February 1, 2023. The situation in Myanmar has deteriorated drastically since February 2021, and a civil war between the military and the pro-democracy front is still raging. The years 2021 and 2022 were sad for the state of human rights as the military, often known as the Tatmadaw, used excessive violence to put an end to the call for democracy.

A resolution was vetoed in the UN Security Council because to Chinese and Russian support for the Tatmadaw, therefore it might be said that the situation has reached this point as a result of the lackluster response and insufficient strict steps of the international community.

Unprecedented agony and hardship for the people of Myanmar resulted from the military’s unrelenting violence and repression in 2022.

Aung San Suu Kyi was one of the prominent leaders of the National League for Democracy (NLD) who was detained by the Tatmadaw two years ago after they attempted a coup and made the absurd claim that elections had been rigged. Despite the fact that the NLD won the election with an overwhelming majority of seats and 83 percent of the vote overall, Tatmadaw, the “King Maker,” rejected the outcome out of concern for its continued control over Myanmar politics. The general populace of Myanmar protested against the coup and denounced it. The demonstration quickly evolved into the civil disobedience movement (CDM), in which professionals from all fields refused to report to work and sought the return of democracy.

The Tatmadaw’s choice to satiate the demand with bullets covered Myanmar’s streets in blood. According to the Thailand-based human rights organization Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, the Tatmadaw has killed roughly 1,500 people and detained up to 9,000 others in the past year (Burma). Additionally, the Tatmadaw employed stringent monitoring techniques to stifle protestors’ voices. 120 journalists have been detained under the recently implemented harsh provision, Section 505A of the penal code, of whom 15 have been found guilty and 50 are still awaiting trial. Seven media outlets’ licenses as well as those for satellite television have been revoked.

After the People’s Defence Force (PDF) was established as the political branch of the National Unity Government in the midst of the bloody crackdown, the CDM changed into an armed resistance group (NUG). Even though NUG has the least power over the force, former NLD officials and pro-democracy fronts founded NUG and PDF as their armed wings. PDF and NUG gradually became one of the main political groups in Myanmar. To combat PDF, Tatmadaw has increased its level of aggression, whereas PDF prefers guerrilla warfare. According to UN estimates, at least 406,000 people have been displaced due to the increasing civil war.

Myanmar’s economy has also been destroyed by political unrest. Foreign companies’ withdrawal and currency depreciation have stifled the nation’s economic expansion.

Even while previous military coups encountered the least resistance and protest, this one resulted in a hitherto unheard-of movement against the dictatorship. The youth of the nation have demonstrated a strong belief in democracy and have remained in the forefront of the protest. The “Five Twos,” often referred to as Myanmar’s “Generation Z,” have taken the Tatmadaw and the rest of the world by surprise. Their political awareness is commendable, and they exhibit an unwavering spirit of resistance.

The Tatmadaw started to experience an image crisis after the youth rebellion was violently put down, and they now worry about maintaining power in the face of unabated popular hatred. Outside of Myanmar, the Tatmadaw has substantial backing from mighty nations like China and Russia.

On the other hand, the people of Myanmar rely on the international world to change things and bring back democracy. With the military’s withdrawal from power, it is clear that the situation will change for the better, necessitating the major engagement of the international community. Ironically, there has been no progress toward resolving this political problem by the international community, which is still bitterly split.

The lives of Myanmar’s residents and ethnic communities are wretched and perpetually unstable due to the lackluster responses of the international community, the geopolitical alignment of major countries, the lengthy history of military rule, and the Tatmadaw’s counter-insurgency operations. Torture, famine, and displacement are the three main pillars of modern-day Myanmar society.

The Tatmadaw has not been significantly impacted by major corporations leaving the country in protest of violations of human rights, such as Chevron and Total. The causes of humanity, genocide, and ethnic cleansing are not what drive the global world; rather, it is geopolitical interests. Although many people believed NUG would have international assistance to drive the Tatmadaw out, in reality, it has not succeeded in securing the backing of significant international players beyond mere lip service.

Situations like these, ranging from the Rohingya catastrophe to the Middle East conflict, have demonstrated how keenly global powers have focused on securing their own interests through strategic realignments and readjustments. Bangladesh is affected by the military takeover in Myanmar and the subsequent political developments in that country since the repatriation of 1.1 million Rohingyas from Bangladesh has been put on hold.

The Tatmadaw’s violence, repression, and civil war in Myanmar have left people living in perpetual fear and uncertainty. The international community must restore democracy to Myanmar’s youth and give displaced people like the Rohingyas new hope. Before it’s too late, the international community must respond in a concerted and strict manner. The Tatmadaw would gain strength as a result of the great nations failing to act, prolonging the agony and vulnerability of the people of Myanmar in 2023 and beyond.

We honor the lives lost over the previous year, especially those of women, children, humanitarian workers, human rights advocates, and nonviolent protestors, on this second anniversary of the coup. We vehemently condemn the country’s widespread human rights abuses and breaches committed by the military dictatorship, especially those committed against Rohingya and other racial and religious minorities. We express our deep concern about the verifiable reports of sexual and gender-based violence as well as torture. We are really concerned about the additional more than 400,000 people who have fled their homes since the coup. We further express our serious concern for the worsening humanitarian situation throughout the nation and call on the military regime to grant immediate, complete, and unrestricted access to vulnerable communities for humanitarian purposes, including COVID-19 immunization.

We express our severe concern with the enormous number of people who have been jailed without warrants as well as the sentencing of State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners.

All members of the international community are urged to support initiatives aimed at promoting justice for the people of Myanmar, to hold those accountable for abuses and violations of human rights accountable, to stop providing the military and its representatives with arms, equipment, and technical assistance, and to continue assisting them in meeting immediate humanitarian needs.

We want to be clear that we support the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus and the Special Envoy of ASEAN in his efforts to promote a peaceful resolution that serves the needs of the people of Myanmar. In order to ensure that the ASEAN Special Envoy has access to all stakeholders in Myanmar, including pro-democracy organizations, we urge the military administration to actively participate in ASEAN’s efforts to achieve complete and urgent implementation of the Five-Point Consensus. We also applaud the work of the UN Special Envoy for Myanmar and call on the military government to cooperate constructively with her.

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Myanmar-Bangladesh ‘Border Guard Diplomacy’ strengthens ties

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Border Guard Bangladesh in a top-level meeting with their Myanmar counterpart Border Guard Police on Thursday called for maintaining peace and curbing trans-boundary crime.

In the meeting held in Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw, the Bangladeshi side also urged building mutual trust between the two forces.

The BGP is hosting the eighth edition of this top border conference, where several hours of discussion were held. A joint discussion will be held again today.   BGB director general Major General Shakil Ahmed is leading a 10-member Bangladesh delegation, while police force deputy chief Major General Aung Naing Thu is leading a 15-member Myanmar delegation. The Myanmar delegation includes senior officials from Myanmar’s Border Guard Police (BGP), as well as representatives from the country’s ministries of defence, home affairs, foreign affairs, and labour and population affairs.

Representatives from Bangladesh Prime Minister’s Office, home and foreign ministries, among others, are attending the discussion.

 Bangladesh wants a ‘peaceful’ and ‘crime-free’ border through the building of mutual trust. A press release shared by BGB headquarters said that issues related to recent border tension, including airspace violations, transnational counter-terrorism and criminal activities, drug smuggling, and human trafficking, among others, were on the priority list in the discussion.

The meeting also discussed joint patrolling and trust-building measures, it said. The Bangladesh delegation will return to Dhaka on November 28.

The meeting was held just 10 days after Squadron Leader Rizwan Rushdee, 30, an officer of the Bangladesh Air Force deputed to the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence, and a Rohingya woman were killed and a member of the Rapid Action Battalion was badly injured during an anti-smuggling operation on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border near Naikhyangchari under the Bandarban district on November 14.

The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army was blamed for the killing.Earlier on October 30, border forces from Bangladesh and Myanmar pledged to improve bilateral relations after shells landed in Bangladesh amid clashes between Myanmar forces and the rebel Arakan Army in Rakhine State.

On October 26, Myanmar’s special operations commander, Lieutenant General Phone Myat, visited Bangladesh’s army chief, General SM Shafiuddin Ahmed, in Dhaka in an apparent attempt to improve relations and boost regional security.

Bangladesh filed diplomatic complaints after fighter jets and drone flights violated its airspace and mortar shells landed on its territory several times between August and September.

On September 16, a Rohingya teenager was killed and five people were injured when a mortar exploded at a Rohingya camp along the Naikhyangchari border.

A 10-member Bangladesh delegation led by BGB Director General Major General Shakil Ahmed are participating in the conference.

The topic of discussion at the conference includes de-escalation of the tense situation at the border caused by the recent internal conflict in Myanmar, violation of the air border, combating inter-state terrorism and preventing the activities of cross-border criminal gangs, prevention of illegal infiltration, prevention of drug and human trafficking, enhancing mutual cooperation to increase security at borders, exchange of various information related to borders, conducting joint patrolling, organising regular coordination meetings/flag meetings at the region and battalion levels, repatriation of detained/punished citizens of both countries, repatriation of forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals to their original abodes and increasing mutual trust between BGB and BGP.

There had always been tension along the border between Bangladesh and Myanmar. Along the 271-kilometer sea and land boundary between the two nations, the two have a history of conflict. For instance, a border battle with the Myanmar military in 1978 necessitated the deployment of Bangladeshi troops along the border. When Myanmar sent out its naval ships to place a Korean drilling rig in Bangladesh’s exclusive economic zone close to St. Martin’s Island in 2008, Bangladesh too came dangerously close to having a maritime conflict. But the current issue really began in 2017 with the exodus of Rohingyas from Myanmar.

The entire world is aware that in 2017, more than a million Rohingya refugees sought safety in Bangladesh. These refugees have been hosted by Bangladesh on humanitarian grounds. To maintain regional stability, the Rohingya refugee situation must be solved.

Bangladesh is under great pressure due to the current Rohingya crisis. In dealing with this crisis, the country has had to face, and continues to face, some new diplomatic realities. It suddenly discovered that some of its long-time friends were no longer with it. It has largely failed to achieve the expected results by applying traditional diplomatic methods to resolve the crisis. Therefore, there is a need for new thinking in the successful application of the various methods of modern diplomacy. Such as economic diplomacy, military diplomacy, or cultural diplomacy. Military diplomacy is a special strategy among the strategies used by various countries to protect the country’s interests and strengthen the state’s diplomatic position in the international arena, and both its influence and application in the current world are increasing.

What did Bangladesh do at that time? First and foremost, Bangladesh found a peaceful and diplomatic solution to the tension it currently experienced at the border with Myanmar. There has never been any notion that it can resolve the issue through violence or armed war. But diplomatic action alone is insufficient.

It must be supported by deterrents because deterrents are what give diplomatic actions bite. Some international experts have also contended that the military balances are likely skewed in favor of Myanmar, making it challenging for us to demonstrate an effective level of deterrence. However, Bangladesh made an effort to make sure that its diplomatic actions have a solid foundation.

In an effort to deliver protest notes to the Myanmar ambassador, the Bangladesh Foreign Ministry has so far used diplomatic channels. It hasn’t changed anything. In addition to civilian diplomacy, the Bangladesh government has taken a step forward in solving the border and Rohingya crisis through successful military diplomatic activities. IT must be of no surprise that in special circumstances, a country’s military diplomacy plays an instrumental role in managing foreign relations.

Relations between the two countries are now at a chilly level, with rounds of talks between Bangladesh and Myanmar surrounding the Rohingya crisis and Myanmar’s last-minute bungling of repatriation. In such a context, Bangladesh is looking for a possible solution to this crisis in military diplomacy.

Just like political diplomacy, military diplomacy has had positive discussions with Myanmar’s military leadership to resolve the Rohingya crisis, and in terms of defense cooperation, the relationship between the two countries will accelerate and strengthen mutual trust with this friendly country.

The influence of the military on state power in Myanmar is immense. Apart from that, the current Rohingya crisis falls within the ambit of the army. As a result, any move to deal with the crisis without involving the country’s army is bound to fail. Had there already been a close professional relationship between the Bangladesh and Myanmar armies, that relationship could have been put to good use in de-escalating the current crisis.

The Bangladesh army and border guard have seen success in military diplomacy before. In May 2014, the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) member Naik Mizanur Rahman was killed in firing by Myanmar’s Border Guard Police (BGP), causing intense tension on the border between the two countries.

Later, on the instructions of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the then BGB Director General  took the initiative to develop bilateral relations with the BGP. In June of that year, he led an eighjt-member Bangladesh delegation to a meeting of the BGB and Myanmar Police Force (MPF) chiefs in Myanmar’s capital, Nay Pyi Taw.

This was the BGB’s first meeting with the MPF. The meeting was considered as a milestone in the development of the border forces of the two countries. BGB and BGP worked together for a long time by accepting the land border agreement during the visit of the then BGB Director General.

This brings relief to Bangladesh’s 261-km border with Myanmar. Based on that meeting, Myanmar then expressed good neighbourly behavior with Bangladesh.

A Myanmar military commander visited Bangladesh and met its Army chief in Dhaka in an apparent attempt to improve relations and boost regional security on October 27.

According to an ISPR statement, the Myanmar military’s special operation commander, Lt Gen Phone Myat, explained the situation in Myanmar and how the junta was trying to maintain law and order while working with friendly countries. The statement said Bangladesh army chief discussed improving military relations, discussions between commanders and training exchanges.

Bangladesh COAS Gen Shafiuddin Ahmed called for Myanmar to work with Bangladesh to ensure regional security and the rapid repatriation of the Rohingya community. Myanmar’s delegation expressed interest in cooperating in professional growth and training exchanges, increasing friendship and solving problems bilaterally, the statement said.

General Shafiuddin stated in September that Bangladesh’s armed forces were prepared to act if Myanmar’s troops continued to fire across the border while pursuing the Arakan Army. He claimed that he complained strongly to his counterpart in Myanmar about the shelling, gunfire, and interference with jet and drone flights that resulted in the death of a Rohingya refugee and injuries to others in the Bandarban district.

Tatmadaw, the military of Myanmar, has been engaged in combat with the AA in northern Rakhine State, close to the Bangladeshi border. Since August, Bangladesh has complained to the international community about fighter jet and drone flights over its territory as well as mortar and machine gun rounds that cross the border.

Mohammad Ikbal, a 17-year-old Rohingya teenager, was killed by at least three mortar rounds launched into Bangladesh on September 16. Six other people were also hurt. The visit was welcomed and is a great development.

A battalion-level flag meeting between BRB and BGP decided to improve bilateral relations between the two countries, while the Myanmar side regretted the recent incidents of shelling along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.The meeting stressed the need to take necessary steps to boost communication, confidence, and trust between the border guarding forces of the two ‘friendly countries.’

Although it has a long history, military diplomacy is currently being addressed in several nations. The Rohingya issue and the most recent border dispute have a negative impact on the peace, security, and stability of the region. Regional peace and security will be threatened by the Rohingya repatriation’s delay. Military influence and diplomacy may play a decisive role in ending the Rohingya crisis.

Additionally, given that Myanmar is currently governed by a military government, the military’s position will be able to strengthen bilateral ties. The Bangladesh Foreign Ministry can therefore develop plans and measures to end the Rohingya issue with this goal in mind. The solution to the border conflict between Bangladesh and Myanmar lies in multilateral diplomacy. Strengthening military diplomacy is necessary in this regard.

Although Bangladesh and Myanmar share a border of 271 km, the Rohingya refugee crisis has been a long-standing bilateral issue between Myanmar and Bangladesh. But in order to assist in resolving this regional humanitarian crisis, both involved parties must participate in meaningful political dialogue. To establish a long-lasting political solution, Myanmar and Bangladesh could use military diplomacy as a tactic.

Basically, there should be regular exchanges of visits, training sessions, and joint exercises between the military forces of Bangladesh and Myanmar. These will lessen mistrust while boosting assurance and comprehension. Additionally, this may assist in resolving the region’s ongoing Rohingya refugee problem.

Bangladesh and Myanmar must forge military-diplomatic ties in order to successfully handle the Rohingya repatriation process. The Rohingya situation might be resolved with the use of military diplomacy and clout. The military role will be able to promote bilateral relations because Myanmar is governed by a military regime.

Military diplomatic communication is an effective strategy in strengthening relations with neighboring states. As Myanmar is Bangladesh’s only neighbouring country after India, its strategic importance is undeniable for Bangladesh. It has tried all kinds of bilateral and multilateral efforts to deal with the ongoing Rohingya crisis in Myanmar, but so far, no promising results have been achieved.

The influence of the military on state power in Myanmar is immense. Apart from that, the current Rohingya crisis falls within the ambit of the army. As a result, any move to deal with the crisis without involving the country’s army is bound to fail. Had there already been a close professional relationship between the Bangladesh and Myanmar armies, that relationship could have been put to good use in de-escalating the current crisis.

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The Recent Rohingya Resolution Adopted by UNO Offers a Glimmer of Hope For Rohingyas?

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Since the overwhelming exodus of Rohingya refugees to Bangladesh in 2017, the Rohingya problem has gained attention. To continue housing more than 1.1 million refugees in Bangladesh, however, is proving to be an incredibly challenging endeavor given the recent emergence of other national and international challenges.

A ray of light is provided, nonetheless, by the recent Rohingya resolution passed by the UN General Assembly’s Third Committee. The resolution was jointly introduced on Wednesday (November 18) by members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the European Union (EU), who all agreed that it was urgent to confront Myanmar’s reprehensible treatment of the Rohingya people and other minorities.

This is good news since, up until now, the international community has not taken sufficient action to relieve the pressure on Bangladesh and to prevent Myanmar from abdicating its responsibility to its citizens.

The resolution is simply the first of several that must be taken to make sure that the Myanmar government creates a secure environment for the Rohingya refugees to return to; it does not, however, guarantee that the repatriation process for those refugees would be accelerated.

It is crucial that the resolution be turned into rapid action because the UN and humanitarian aid groups both have vital roles to play in this situation.

The perpetrators of the crimes done against the Rohingya population can finally be brought to justice with the assistance of the international community. Making sure that the refugees can finally and safely return home requires that we approach this catastrophe with the urgency that it demands.

While Bangladesh’s attempts to host the refugees demonstrate a level of generosity that the rest of the world has yet to demonstrate, it is time for the international community to take action to share the burden that isn’t ours to bear.

The Bangladeshi government has made numerous attempts to reach a deal with Myanmar and to solicit support from the international community for the safe and long-term repatriation of the Rohingya refugees.

The human rights situation of Rohingya Muslims and other minority communities in Myanmar was also raised in the resolution adopted by the third committee of the General Assembly on Wednesday.

The Permanent Mission of Bangladesh to the United Nations said in a statement that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the European Union (EU) jointly presented the proposal to the Third Committee of the General Assembly. 109 countries co-sponsored the resolution, the highest since 2017.

In that proposal, the current political situation in Myanmar has worsened the human rights situation of Rohingya Muslims and other minority communities there

In addition to finding the root cause of the Rohingya problem, the resolution calls on Myanmar to fully cooperate with all UN human rights bodies, including the UN Secretary General’s Special Envoy to Myanmar, to create an environment suitable for the voluntary, safe and sustainable return of the Rohingya to Rakhine State.

The statement added, “It commends Bangladesh’s continued cooperation with the ICC, IIMM and other accountability mechanisms to ensure justice and accountability for human rights violations against the Rohingya.”

This year’s resolution also called on UN member states to continue humanitarian assistance for the Rohingyas in Bangladesh under the principle of ‘Responsibility and Burden Sharing’.

When the proposal was accepted in the General Assembly, the charge of the affairs of Bangladesh. Manowar said, “The Rohingyas sheltering in camps in Bangladesh until their return deserve the solidarity of the international community. Adequate funding is needed to implement this humanitarian response process.”

Highlighting the problem of the Rohingya’s long standing in Bangladesh, Manowar Hossain said, “We sheltered the Rohingya fleeing from Myanmar due to humanitarian considerations, the displaced people always have the desire to return to Myanmar. Bangladesh is bilateral and multilateral in creating an environment suitable for the safe and voluntary return of the Rohingya to Myanmar. Front has undertaken multifaceted diplomatic efforts to create an environment conducive to safe and voluntary return to Myanmar.”

In addition, the important role of regional countries and organizations such as ASEAN in the development of Myanmar’s political and human rights situation has been highlighted. Special emphasis is placed on the speedy implementation of the five-point recommendations adopted unanimously by ASEAN.The UN General Assembly unanimously passed a resolution on the ‘Human Rights Situation of Rohingya Muslims and Other Minorities in Myanmar’. It also recognized Bangladesh’s humanitarian efforts for the Rohingya. This is definitely good news.

The proposal seeks to find the root cause of the Rohingya problem as well as create an environment conducive to the voluntary, safe and sustainable return of the Rohingya to Myanmar’s Rakhine State. In this regard, Myanmar has been called upon to fully cooperate with all human rights organizations of the United Nations, including the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary General in Myanmar.

It is hoped that the international community will be more alert and aware of the Rohingya issue at the United Nations. It can be said that the task of repatriating Rohingyas will be relatively easy if such a proposal is unanimously accepted by the Security Council in the future. The main question is whether the Rohingyas sheltered in Bangladesh will be able to return to their homeland. As long as this goal is not achieved, there will be no relief for Bangladesh. Despite being overpopulated and plagued by socio-economic problems, Bangladesh has given shelter to the displaced Rohingya fleeing from Myanmar on humanitarian grounds. But this humanitarian step has become a burden for Bangladesh now. Rohingyas coming to this country has created a multidimensional crisis. The environment of Cox’s Bazar area has become polluted. Population density has increased.

Rohingyas are involved in various criminal activities including drug smuggling and are worsening the law and order situation in the country. This situation is not only a threat to Bangladesh’s internal security but also to regional security. In this reality, an acceptable solution to the Rohingya crisis has become very important. And this solution can be done only through repatriation of Rohingyas to their homeland.

The international community should apply effective pressure on Myanmar, so that the country agrees to take back its citizens. It is expected that the international community will play a stronger role in the Rohingya issue after the unanimously adopted resolution at the United Nations.

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World can’t remain silent on Myanmar’s ‘Nuclear Ambition’

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If Myanmar acquires nuclear capability, it would be disaster for South and Southeast Asia. All regional countries would be facing security threat from Myanmar directly. Nuclear Myanmar is going to direct threat to not only for all regional countries. South and Southeast Asia is going to be vulnerable permanently if Myanmar continues to pursue its long-cherished nuclear ambitions. Definitely, the military junta would use the weapons against various ethnic rivals, and insurgents. Not only so that, but the whole Southeast Asian region would also be volatile, and unstable for the stupidity of the Myanmar junta.

Myanmar’s aggressive behavior would be growing day by day. Recent border tensions between Myanmar-Bangladesh are the best example to understand and realize that. Myanmar’s military is so brutal, and cruel that it has been carrying out airstrikes on its people. Thus, the nuclear weapons in the hand of the Myanmar military are more dangerous than North Korea even.

For example, the foreign ministry summoned Myanmar’s ambassador to Bangladesh, Aung Kyaw Moe, on September 18, 2022, for the fourth time in protest of the troubled neighbor’s continuous violations of Bangladesh’s air and land space in recent weeks. Myanmar has been embroiled in a civil conflict since mid-August, and throughout this time, shells have crossed the Bangladesh border. On September 16, a mortar bomb launched from Myanmar exploded in a Rohingya camp, killing one 18-year-old and injuring five others. Additionally, on September 3, military aircraft from Myanmar conducted coordinated shooting attacks from fighter jets and helicopters while in Bangladeshi airspace, putting the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) on notice.

One of Bangladesh’s closest neighbors is Myanmar. Unfortunately, the nation does not behave in a very neighborly manner. In a raid on the Rakhine state on August 25, 2017, the Myanmar army massacred the Rohingya community and burned their homes on fire. More than 700,000 Rohingyas fled this cruelty and sought refuge in Bangladesh. Thousands of Rohingyas have previously traveled from Myanmar to Bangladesh at various points in time.1.25 million Rohingyas are currently listed as living in Bangladesh’s numerous refugee camps. Releasing them has been difficult for Myanmar. Bangladesh is obligated to pay. Bangladesh has been the victim of numerous lies from the nation.

Myanmar has consistently infringed on Bangladesh’s sovereignty. This is a big surprise. At the border, no state has the authority to infringe on another state’s sovereignty. This is obviously against international law, standards, and traditions. The government of Myanmar must take into account the cordial ties between the two nations. It must keep in mind that Bangladesh is a sovereign nation and that firing shells into the border by itself, whether on purpose or accidentally, is unacceptable. Myanmar has no right to infringe on the territory of another state. In the international community, this mindset is unacceptable.
An agreement signed by Myanmar’s military regime and Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation to jointly assess building a small reactor in the Southeast Asian country underscores the junta’s long-term pursuit of nuclear weapons, analysts said.

Myo Thein Kyaw, the regime’s minister of science and technology; Thuang Han, minister of electric power; and Alexey Likhachev, chief executive officer at Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation, signed the “roadmap for cooperation upon its own citizens” while they attended the Eastern Economic Forum on Sept. 5-8 in Vladivostok. Junta leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing oversaw the signing of the agreement.
The deal would further Russian-Myanmar cooperation in the field of nuclear energy, and assess the feasibility of a small-scale nuclear reactor project in Myanmar, Rosatom said in a statement issued Sept. 6.
The same day, the junta announced that it would use nuclear energy for electricity generation, scientific research, medicine production, and industry.

There is no doubt Myanmar has a nuclear program. It sent scientists, technicians, and army officers to Russia for training in recent years. And Moscow has agreed to supply Myanmar, formerly Burma, with a small nuclear reactor for civilian use. The question is, why is the world silent in this regard? Why did ASEAN not raise the concern this time?

Myanmar (Burma) has been carrying out rudimentary steps toward developing nuclear weapons, a documentary released in June by an opposition group alleges. The documentary by the Democratic Voice of Burma featured information provided by Sai Thein Win, a former officer in the Myanmar army. Win claimed to have been deputy manager of special machine tool factories involved in Myanmar’s secret nuclear weapons efforts and ballistic missile development program.

The opposition group also issued a corresponding report on June 3 featuring an analysis of Win’s information by former International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspector Robert Kelley. Kelley claimed in the report that, taken collectively, the technology featured in Win’s information “is only for nuclear weapons and not civilian use or nuclear power.”

Burma’s nuclear ambitions, spotlighted by last month’s announcement that Russia has agreed to help the regime build a nuclear research facility, date back at least seven years. In December 1995, the junta signed the Bangkok Treaty, banning the development, manufacture, possession, control, stationing, transport, testing, or use of nuclear weapons under the terms of the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Five years later, after a visit to Moscow by Burma’s minister for science and technology, U Thaung, the junta’s nuclear plans became clearer” The junta’s recent confirmation that it will build a small-scale nuclear power plant in the next few years caps Myanmar’s long pursuit of nuclear technology dating back to early 2000.

The Southeast Asian country’s two-decade-long journey to nuclear capability was made possible by Russia after a series of engagements that accelerated under the current junta and its military predecessor.
Though the current regime insists nuclear energy would be used for peaceful purposes in Myanmar, which has been hit by chronic electricity shortages, many believe this is the first step in a plan to utilize nuclear energy for military purposes including the production of nuclear weapons.

In 2009, it was reported that Myanmar was suspected of having initiated a nuclear weapons program. If such a program does exist, Burma’s technical and financial limitations may make it difficult for the program to succeed. The United States expressed concern in 2011 about potential violations of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), though by 2012 these concerns had been “partially allayed.” Burma has faced persistent accusations of using chemical weapons.

In 2007, Russia and Burma did a controversial nuclear research center deal. According to them, “The centre will comprise a 10MW light-water reactor working on 20%-enriched uranium-235, an activation analysis laboratory, a medical isotope production laboratory, silicon doping system, nuclear waste treatment, and burial facilities”.

According to an August 2009 report published in the Sydney Morning Herald, Burma had been working to develop a nuclear weapon by 2014. The reported effort, purportedly being undertaken with assistance from North Korea, involves the construction of a nuclear reactor and plutonium extraction facilities in caves tunneled into a mountain at Naung Laing, a village in the Mandalay division. The information cited in the newspaper story reportedly originated from two high-ranking defectors who had settled in Australia.

On June 3, 2010, a five-year investigation by an anti-government Myanmar broadcaster, the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), found evidence that allegedly shows the country’s military regime began a programme to develop nuclear weapons. The DVB said evidence of Myanmar’s nuclear programme came from top-secret documents smuggled out of the country over several years, including hundreds of files and other evidence provided by Sai Thein Win, a former major in the military of Myanmar. A UN report said there was evidence that North Korea had been exporting nuclear technology to Burma, Iran, and Syria. Now, Russia supports Myanmar’s nuclear program openly.

Based on Win’s evidence, Robert Kelley, a former weapons inspector, said he believed Burma “has the intent to go nuclear and it is… expending huge resources along the way.” But as of 2010, experts said that Burma was a long way from succeeding, given the poor quality of its current materials. Despite Kelley’s analysis, some experts are uncertain that a nuclear weapons programme exists; for example, the Institute for Science and International Security notes ambiguity as to whether certain equipment is used for uranium production, or for innocently producing “rare earth metals or metals such as titanium or vanadium.” The U.S. expressed concern in 2011 about possible NPT violations, but by 2012 stated that its concerns had been “partially allayed.”

Myanmar signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons on September 26, 2018, but has not ratified it.

On 15 December 1995, ASEAN Member States signed the Treaty of Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ Treaty) as a commitment to preserve the Southeast Asian region as a region free of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. The Treaty is also known as the Bangkok Treaty. Through this treaty, ASEAN reaffirms the importance of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and in contributing towards international peace and security. It also marks the establishment of a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (NWFZ) in Southeast Asia – one among five NWFZs in the world. The other four NWFZs are in Latin America and the Caribbean, South Pacific, Africa, and Central Asia.

The Protocol to the SEANWFZ Treaty welcomes the signing and early ratification of the Nuclear Weapon States (NWS), which will contribute to the promotion of the realisation of a Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone. Efforts are underway toward the accession of the NWS to the Protocol.

Myanmar’s attitude is contradictory to the Protocol to the SEANWFZ Treaty. Whatever may be the truth, the fact remains that nuclear Myanmar is not in India, China, or all neighbouring countries’ interst. They cannot afford to have another nuclear power along its border. Other regional countries would definitely feel insecure. The direct nuclear threat from Myanmar would destabilize the whole region in the long run. If nuclear deterrence works, then the arms race is a must in the region. Myanmar’s this dangerous ambition would take a relaxation from all stakeholders in the region. West should join with all regional countries and ASEAN to pressure Myanmar to give up its nuclear (weapons) ambitions. They must take action like in the Iran case, Otherwise, the world is going to see another nuclear threat in the Southeast region. Instead of developing nuclear weapons, the world must compel Myanmar to focus on bringing back democracy and resolving problems like HIV AIDS, human trafficking, rape, drug abuse, child soldiers, forced labour, ethnic crisis, refugee issues, and corruption. All bordering and neighbouring countries of Myanmar must be cautious in this regard.

The only peaceful course of action is for Myanmar to promptly implement appropriate measures to cease all forms of unwelcome behavior in the border area in order to preserve regular ties between the two nations. All regional countries must raise the issue in international community to stop Myanmar to commit such heinous activities.

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Myanmar: Military’s ‘cherished nuclear ambition’ threatens regional stability

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Southeast Asia is going to be vulnerable permanently if Myanmar continues to pursue its long-cherished nuclear ambitions.  Definitely, the military junta would use the weapons against various ethnic rivals, and insurgents. Not only so that, but the whole Southeast Asian region would also be volatile, and unstable for the stupidity of the Myanmar junta. Myanmar’s aggressive behaviour would be growing day by day. Recent border tensions between Myanmar-Bangladesh are the best example to understand and realize that. Myanmar’s military is so brutal, and cruel that it has been carrying out airstrikes upon its own people. Thus, the nuclear weapons in the hand of the Myanmar military are more dangerous than North Korea even.

An agreement signed by Myanmar’s military regime and Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation to jointly assess building a small reactor in the Southeast Asian country underscores the junta’s long-term pursuit of nuclear weapons, analysts said.

Myo Thein Kyaw, the regime’s minister of science and technology; Thuang Han, minister of electric power; and Alexey Likhachev, chief executive officer at Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation, signed the “roadmap for cooperation upon its own citizens” while they attended the Eastern Economic Forum on Sept. 5-8 in Vladivostok. Junta leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing oversaw the signing of the agreement.

The deal would further Russian-Myanmar cooperation in the field of nuclear energy, and assess the feasibility of a small-scale nuclear reactor project in Myanmar, Rosatom said in a statement issued Sept. 6.

The same day, the junta announced that it would use nuclear energy for electricity generation, scientific research, medicine production and industry.  

There is no doubt Myanmar has a nuclear program. It sent scientists, technicians and army officers to Russia for training in recent years. And Moscow has agreed to supply Myanmar, formerly Burma, with a small nuclear reactor for civilian use. The question is, why the world is silent in this regard? Why does not ASEAN raise the concern this time?

Myanmar (Burma) has been carrying out rudimentary steps toward developing nuclear weapons, a documentary released in June by an opposition group alleges. The documentary by the Democratic Voice of Burma featured information provided by Sai Thein Win, a former officer in the Myanmar army. Win claimed to have been deputy manager of special machine tool factories involved in Myanmar’s secret nuclear weapons efforts and ballistic missile development program.

The opposition group also issued a corresponding report on June 3 featuring an analysis of Win’s information by former International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspector Robert Kelley. Kelley claimed in the report that, taken collectively, the technology featured in Win’s information “is only for nuclear weapons and not civilian use or nuclear power.”

Burma’s nuclear ambitions, spotlighted by last month’s announcement that Russia has agreed to help the regime build a nuclear research facility, date back at least seven years. In December 1995, the junta signed the Bangkok Treaty, banning the development, manufacture, possession, control, stationing, transport, testing or use of nuclear weapons under the terms of the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Five years later, after a visit to Moscow by Burma’s minister for science and technology, U Thaung, the junta’s nuclear plans became clearer…”The junta’s recent confirmation that it will build a small-scale nuclear power plant in the next few years caps Myanmar’s long pursuit of nuclear technology dating back to early 2000.

The Southeast Asian country’s two-decade-long journey to nuclear capability was made possible by Russia after a series of engagements that accelerated under the current junta and its military predecessor.

Though the current regime insists nuclear energy would be used for peaceful purposes in Myanmar, which has been hit by chronic electricity shortages, many believe this is the first step in a plan to utilize nuclear energy for military purposes including the production of nuclear weapons.

In 2009, it was reported that Myanmar was suspected to have initiated a nuclear weapons program. If such a program does exist, Burma’s technical and financial limitations may make it difficult for the program to succeed. The United States expressed concern in 2011 about potential violations of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), though by 2012 these concerns had been “partially allayed.” Burma has faced persistent accusations of using chemical weapons.

In 2007, Russia and Burma did a controversial nuclear research centre deal. According to them, “The centre will comprise a 10MW light-water reactor working on 20%-enriched uranium-235, an activation analysis laboratory, a medical isotope production laboratory, silicon doping system, nuclear waste treatment and burial facilities”.

According to an August 2009 report published in the Sydney Morning Herald, Burma had been working to develop a nuclear weapon by 2014. The reported effort, purportedly being undertaken with assistance from North Korea, involves the construction of a nuclear reactor and plutonium extraction facilities in caves tunnelled into a mountain at Naung Laing, a village in the Mandalay division. The information cited in the newspaper story reportedly originated from two high-ranking defectors who had settled in Australia.

On June 3, 2010, a five-year investigation by an anti-government Myanmar broadcaster, the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), found evidence that allegedly shows the country’s military regime began a programme to develop nuclear weapons. The DVB said evidence of Myanmar’s nuclear programme came from top-secret documents smuggled out of the country over several years, including hundreds of files and other evidence provided by Sai Thein Win, a former major in the military of Myanmar. A UN report said there was evidence that North Korea had been exporting nuclear technology to Burma, Iran and Syria. Now, Russia supports Myanmar’s nuclear program openly.

Based on Win’s evidence, Robert Kelley, a former weapons inspector, said he believed Burma “has the intent to go nuclear and it is… expending huge resources along the way.” But as of 2010, experts said that Burma was a long way from succeeding, given the poor quality of its current materials. Despite Kelley’s analysis, some experts are uncertain that a nuclear weapons programme exists; for example, the Institute for Science and International Security notes ambiguity as to whether certain equipment is used for uranium production, or for innocently producing “rare earth metals or metals such as titanium or vanadium.” The U.S. expressed concern in 2011 about possible NPT violations, but by 2012 stated that its concerns had been “partially allayed.”

Myanmar signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons on September 26, 2018, but has not ratified it.

On 15 December 1995, ASEAN Member States signed the Treaty of Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ Treaty) as a commitment to preserve the Southeast Asian region as a region free of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. The Treaty is also known as the Bangkok Treaty. Through this treaty, ASEAN reaffirms the importance of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and in contributing towards international peace and security. It also marks the establishment of a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (NWFZ) in Southeast Asia – one among five NWFZs in the world. The other four NWFZs are in Latin America and the Caribbean, South Pacific, Africa, and Central Asia.

The Protocol to the SEANWFZ Treaty welcomes the signing and early ratification of the Nuclear Weapon States (NWS), which will contribute to the promotion of the realisation of a Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone. Efforts are underway towards the accession of the NWS to the Protocol.

Myanmar’s attitude is contradictory to the Protocol to the SEANWFZ Treaty. Whatever may be the truth, the fact remains that nuclear Myanmar is not in India or China, but all neighbouring countries’ interests. They cannot afford to have another nuclear power along its border. Other regional countries would definitely feel insecure. The direct nuclear threat from Myanmar would destabilize the whole region in the long run. If nuclear deterrence works, then the arms race is a must in the region. Myanmar’s this dangerous ambition would take a relaxation from all stakeholders in the region.   West should join with all regional countries and ASEAN to pressure Myanmar to give up its nuclear (weapons) ambitions. They must take action like in the Iran case, Otherwise, the world is going to see another nuclear threat in the Southeast region. Instead of developing nuclear weapons, the world must compel Myanmar to focus on bringing back democracy and resolving problems like HIV AIDS, human trafficking, rape, drug abuse, child soldiers, forced labour, ethnic crisis, refugee issues and corruption.

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Myanmar Military Junta: Sinking Within

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The piercing sound of air raids, mortar shelling, and gunfire on our southern border not only violates our territorial integrity and sovereignty but also presents a gloomy image of an uncertain future for the people of Myanmar, Bangladesh, and the entire region.

The sound of gunshots also serves as a metaphor for the Myanmar Junta’s struggles and failures in establishing control over its own nation. The present violence in Myanmar has all the characteristics of a civil war.

Burma (Myanmar) is already engulfed in a civil war. Organized opposition groups, credible challenges to state authority, ground presence, alternative governance infrastructure (usually), and external recognition are often necessary for civil conflicts. All those components exist in Burma. The opposition is not organized along ethnic lines. They have had success in battling the security forces and Burmese army.
Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League of Democracy was democratically elected to power in Myanmar, but that government was overthrown last year, and the military took its place. The recent trend of increased fighting and violence in Myanmar is evidence of growing unrest against the military establishment (NDL).

Following the military takeover, a sizable pro-democracy movement emerged, which later evolved into armed resistance in response to the Junta’s violent assault on dissent, which claimed the lives of at least 2,300 civilians throughout Myanmar.

People’s Defence Force (PDF), an anti-coup resistance force, has been in charge of a widespread armed resistance campaign since the coup. The National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow government in exile run by Suu Kyi’s NLD’s expelled MPs, served as the foundation for PDF.

Frequently armed only with handmade weapons and a thorough understanding of the terrain, PDF has managed to astound the military with its capabilities.

To put an end to the resistance movement, the Junta in reaction conducted indiscriminate airstrikes, shelling, and arson attacks against cities and villages.

The Junta’s support among the populace has been eroded by this indiscriminate violence against the civilian population, which has brought the nation dangerously close to civil war as more civilians take up guns to oppose the military regime.

The failure of the Junta military to take control of the country is due to the lack of popular support brought on by the indiscriminate violence against the country’s population, the Myanmar military’s lack of professionalism, and corruption at every level of its military leadership and law enforcement agencies.
Ethnic Armed Forces Organizations (EAOs), also known as powerful ethnic armed organizations, have formed coalitions to combat the Junta on the battlefield as a result of the Junta’s failings. There are some of them that have friendly ties to the military establishment.

In light of recent developments, the heads of Myanmar’s seven most potent ethnic armed groups, including the Arakan Army, recently met in the remote WA area bordering China to strengthen their alliance.

Some of these EAOs have actively given military training and other types of support to anti-coup resistance, even if they are not actively engaged in the campaign to topple the Junta regime in Myanmar, which is the PDF’s main goal.

The crisis in Myanmar has already served as a flashpoint for major world powers, just like every other contemporary conflict throughout the globe.

A semi-proxy battle has already developed in this conflict. China firmly supports the Burmese government. While western nations have denounced Burmese activities, supported the opposition diplomatically and helped them make their voices heard.

Myanmar has been attempting to take advantage of the west’s diversion in attention away from this region due to the conflict in Ukraine to annihilate its rivals on the battlefield.

The Junta has been looking for supporters domestically and abroad as part of its so-called “counter-terrorism” drive to combat the diplomatic isolation the west imposed on the country last year.

Last June, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution urging nations to stop arming Myanmar.

However, the call was ignored. China, Russia, and Serbia are now Burma’s top three weaponry suppliers.
Tom Andrews, the UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in Myanmar, criticized Russia and China for continuing to supply the Junta with weapons despite “proof of the horrific crimes being committed with impunity” since launching a coup last year in his report released in February. However, Russia is still selling the Junta military equipment, and as part of a 2018 contract, it will soon send brand-new Sukhoi SU-30SM jet fighters.

Due to an uptick in violence, conditions in Myanmar have recently gotten worse for a great number of innocent people.

This brutal crackdown has unleashed a major refugee crisis forcing tens of thousands of people from almost every region to flee the country.

Since the coup, at least 1.3 million people have been forcibly evacuated in an effort to flee military attacks, he claimed, adding that the effects of this refugee flow would be felt throughout the entire Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

The largest increase in the number of refugees arrived in the Indian state of Mizoram. Since the military overthrew the government in 2021, about 30,000 people from Myanmar have sought refuge in Mizoram, according to Hindustan Times.

Bangladesh is also seeing a small influx of refugees despite intensive monitoring and surveillance in border regions. A minimum of 10-15 Rohingyas have sought refuge in the Kutupalong and Balukhali shelter camps in Cox’s Bazar since September 10 as a result of the resumption of hostilities between the Myanmar military and Arakan Army in Rakhine.

The “spectre of violence” in Myanmar has started to compellASEAN members to take action against Myanmar. This is a very significant development.

Bangladesh and Thailand have both been patient and cautious in their response (to airspace violation and artillery shelling), but if conflict persists and such violations become routine, Burmese provocations will in the future be responded to and that might create region-wide instability and chaos.

The Indo-Pacific region’s stability is threatened by the recent flare-up of fighting in Myanmar, which has alarmed neighbouring nations. The continuous insecurity and instability in Rakhine state have produced a spillover impact across the region.

Everyone worries that terrorist groups like IS and al-Qaeda may exploit the deteriorating situation in Rakhine state if the situation there is not adequately addressed. The world must emphasize the necessity of taking action on a global scale to address the security risk brought on by the unrest in Myanmar.
Bangladesh and Myanmar share a turbulent, almost 300-kilometer border, which has the potential to have negative repercussions on both countries.

For more than a month, tensions have been rising between Dhaka and Naypyidaw. On the Bangladesh side of the border, numerous instances of Myanmar’s brutal army airspace violations, deadly shelling, and gunfire have been documented.

Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry summoned Myanmar’s Ambassador in Dhaka, Aung Kyaw Moe, to express opposition to the provocation following a recent incidence of mortar fire in Bangladesh that resulted in the death of an 18-year-old Rohingya boy in the no-land man’s near Bandarban.

Bangladesh must support the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Gambia, Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and other international organizations leading the efforts to hold the Myanmar military accountable for their actions against the Rohingya people in order to ensure the sustainable repatriation of the Rohingya refugees. Bangladesh needs to take the right actions to raise the Rohingya people’s voices and their grievances to the world community. Regional countries’ targets should be strict against the brutal Myanmar military. The world including regional countries must realize that the Rohingya issue is likely to remain stuck until the Myanmar junta is kicked out of power – and this could take a long time.

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Strategic Importance of Hasina’s Sojourn to India: A Post Script

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Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who completed her India visit recently, attended a closed-door meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on Tuesday (September 06). After the meeting, the two Prime Ministers attended a press conference. In this conference, Sheikh Hasina termed the bilateral relations between Bangladesh and India as a role model of ‘neighbourhood diplomacy’.

She also said that she agreed with the Prime Minister of India to work together on various bilateral issues. Sheikh Hasina said, we have agreed to carry out cooperative efforts to maintain our economic growth and regional peace, security and stability.

If Bangladesh and India can work together as partners, it will bring peace and prosperity not only for the two countries but also for the region. On the other hand, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, we have emphasized on cooperation against terrorism and radicalism. He said, those who want to hurt our mutual trust.

Security cooperation, investment, enhanced trade relations, Rohingya issue, water resource management, border management, cooperation in power and energy sector, common river water sharing, prevention of drug smuggling and human trafficking were discussed in the meeting of the two Prime Ministers.

Despite the delayed progress on the line of credit extension in 2018, different types of equipment are being considered at various stages. According to media reports, Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka recently shared a wish list of military platforms and systems that its armed forces would like to purchase from India, marking some progress on the delayed implementation of the $500 million defence Line of Credit (LoC) extended by India to Bangladesh. This contains a wide variety of tools, such as an oil tanker for the Bangladesh Navy, a logistics ship, and a floating dock.

India considers the signing of the first contract between Bangladesh and India under the $500 Line of Credit (LoC) to be an “important first step” in bolstering bilateral defence cooperation.

“This week, I believe the first contract under the defence line of credit was signed. You have undoubtedly been paying close attention to this. Despite being small, it was an essential first step “said Vinay Kwatra, the foreign secretary of India, in New Delhi

According to its “Forces Goal 2030,” Bangladesh is modernizing its military by introducing new weaponry and enhancing infrastructure. A large portion of these requirements can be met by India, which will also boost defence cooperation between the two countries.

China has sold Bangladesh weapons, including two traditional diesel-electric submarines. China has become one of the world’s leading suppliers of weapons, particularly to nations in India’s immediate neighbourhood.

India has recently greatly increased its military support for capacity building and capabilities development for nations in the Indian Ocean Region in an effort to counter this.

The “intensification” of bilateral defence ties was welcomed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi.

According to the joint statement released following the bilateral talks between the two leaders, they also agreed on the early completion of projects under the Line of Credit for Defense, which would be advantageous for both nations.

India looks forward to strengthening bilateral defence ties and welcomed the completion of “first purchase plans” for vehicles for the Bangladesh Armed Forces.

Both parties stressed the importance of cooperating closely to implement the $500 million Line of Credit offered by India for defence items at the 4th Bangladesh-India annual defence dialogue held in New Delhi in August. At the meeting, representatives from Bangladesh and India reaffirmed their commitment to improving interactions between their armed forces and discussed the development of bilateral defence cooperation programs.

For in-depth conversations, various facets of defence industrial and capability-building cooperation came up. Both nations looked at the possibility of working together on joint production, co-development, and commerce in the defence sector.

The Indian side reaffirmed its demand for the 2019 MoU’s provision of a coastal radar system for increased marine security to be implemented as soon as possible.

After the meeting between the two leaders, 7 MoUs were also signed between the two countries. These are – MoU on withdrawal of 153 cusecs of water from Kushiyara River under Surma-Kushiyara Project, MoU between BSIR of Bangladesh with Council of Science and Educational Research of India on Scientific Cooperation, MoU between Supreme Court of Bangladesh with National Judicial Academy at Bhopal, Indian Railway Training Institutes, an MoU between the Railway Ministries of the two countries for the training of Bangladesh Railway staff, an MoU between the Indian and Bangladesh Railway Ministries for information technology cooperation in Bangladesh Railways, an MoU between Bangladesh Television with India’s state broadcaster ‘Prasar Bharti’ and an MoU between BTCL and NSIL on space technology cooperation.

The relationship between Bangladesh and India is long-standing. We hope that this relationship will become closer and closer in the future. But it is also true, even though the two countries have maintained good relations, some issues have not been resolved yet. These include the Teesta water sharing agreement, border management and trade deficit. Regarding the Teesta water distribution agreement, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina expressed optimism and said that the agreement will be signed very soon.

It may be mentioned that all the formalities of signing this agreement have been completed but it was not implemented at the last moment. Indian authorities should consider to resolve the matter expeditiously. Indian government should also be sincere in stopping border killings. Reducing the trade deficit between the two countries is also of particular importance. We hope that the relations between the two countries will be strengthened through the settlement of the outstanding issues in the coming days.

Trade and cooperation between these two close neighbours have grown as a result of their special friendly relationship, promising advantages for both nations. To advance their relationship even further, Bangladesh and India signed seven agreements on Tuesday. These agreements covered important topics like water withdrawal from a shared river, railroad development assistance, judicial officer training in Bangladesh, science and technology cooperation, and broadcasting cooperation. These agreements portend a strengthening of the bonds that unite the two nations.

Compared to 2010, India’s loan assistance to Bangladesh has now increased tenfold. 25 percent of India’s total foreign aid is allocated to Bangladesh. In the meantime, the country has handed over a billion dollars to Bangladesh, that too at less than one percent interest, a generosity that no other friendly country has shown to Bangladesh.

India’s provision of tariff-free transit facilities to Bangladesh for exports to Nepal and Bhutan is considered a major step in bilateral cooperation. Also, since India can use the Chittagong seaport, not only the Seven Sisters of India will benefit from it, but Dhaka will also benefit from it. Because, due to this, the South Block of Delhi expects that the export of Bangladesh to Northeast India will increase significantly.

The visit also made it clear where India wants to take its relationship with Bangladesh in the days ahead. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, or CEPA for short, with Bangladesh. As a result, the products of both countries will get duty-free access.

It is estimated that the volume of trade between the two countries will increase from the current 1.4 billion dollars to 15 billion dollars in the next ten years. India was also requested to implement SEPA by Japan and China. But India chose Bangladesh as its fourth largest trading partner before Japan or China. Besides, in the coming days, the area of ​​cooperation between the two countries is going to expand in space as well.

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