Canada’s military has quietly drafted a conceptual response to a hypothetical invasion by the United States, envisioning unconventional, insurgency-style warfare in the event of a rapid and overwhelming attack, according to media reports citing senior defense officials. The exercise marks a rare and striking departure for a country that has long viewed the US as its closest ally and security partner.
The model reportedly assumes that US forces, attacking from the south, could overrun Canada’s key land and maritime positions within as little as two days. Acknowledging that Canada would be unable to repel such an assault through conventional means, planners explored the possibility of prolonged resistance using irregular tactics. These include sabotage, drone strikes, and hit-and-run operations conducted by small units of soldiers or armed civilians, inspired by the Afghan mujahideen’s campaign against Soviet troops during the 1979–1989 war.
Defense officials stressed that the exercise is not an operational war plan but a theoretical framework designed to test assumptions and examine worst-case scenarios. Nonetheless, it is believed to be the first time in roughly a century that the Canadian Armed Forces have modeled a potential military conflict with the United States, a founding NATO member and Canada’s partner in continental air defense through NORAD.
The move was reportedly prompted by growing unease within NATO and escalating political rhetoric from US President Donald Trump. Trump has repeatedly suggested that Canada should become part of the United States and has aggressively pursued the idea of acquiring Greenland from Denmark, citing strategic competition with Russia and China. His statements, along with recent symbolic gestures such as AI-generated images depicting US control over Canada and Greenland, have unsettled allies and fueled diplomatic friction.
Trump’s Greenland campaign has drawn sharp opposition from European NATO members, who reject any change to the island’s status and warn that such actions could fracture the alliance. The US president has escalated pressure by announcing new tariffs on European states opposing his plans unless a deal is reached, further straining transatlantic relations.
Canada has firmly rejected any notion of joining the United States and maintains that Greenland’s future is a matter for Greenland and Denmark alone. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Prime Minister Mark Carney urged so-called middle powers to act collectively to deter what he described as “hard power” states, a remark widely interpreted as a veiled reference to Washington. Carney warned that nations excluded from global decision-making risk becoming targets rather than participants.
While officials continue to emphasize that a US invasion remains highly unlikely, the mere consideration of such a scenario reflects a shifting strategic mindset in Ottawa. The exercise underscores how expansionist rhetoric and geopolitical posturing, even among allies, can prompt governments to reexamine assumptions once considered unthinkable.
