Former President Donald Trump’s signature tax legislation—championed as a cornerstone of his second-term economic agenda—will add $2.4 trillion to the federal deficit by 2034, according to a report released Wednesday by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The non-partisan fiscal watchdog’s estimate presents a major hurdle for Trump as the bill heads to a contentious debate in the Senate.
Dubbed the “big beautiful bill” by Trump, the legislation narrowly passed the House of Representatives last month but now faces growing resistance from Senate Republicans, particularly among fiscal conservatives alarmed by its long-term cost.
The CBO’s assessment comes as another blow to the former president, who is attempting to rekindle enthusiasm around his pro-growth tax policy amid skepticism from within his own party and public criticism from key allies.
One of the most high-profile detractors is tech billionaire Elon Musk, a longtime Trump backer. Musk lambasted the bill on Tuesday as a “disgusting abomination,” warning that it would undo much of the federal cost-cutting achieved through his Department of Government Efficiency—an initiative launched during Trump’s first term aimed at streamlining federal spending.
Despite the backlash, the Trump administration has dismissed concerns over the CBO’s deficit projection, arguing that the analysis fails to account for the bill’s potential to spur economic growth and ultimately pay for itself through increased revenue. A macroeconomic analysis is expected in a forthcoming report.
“The CBO’s static score doesn’t reflect the dynamic impact of pro-growth tax policy,” a White House spokesperson said. “This bill will unleash American productivity, revitalize industry, and generate revenue well beyond what outdated models can predict.”
Still, the stark $2.4 trillion figure intensifies pressure on Senate Republicans, many of whom have made deficit reduction a core plank of their policy platforms. With a slim Republican majority and Democrats united in opposition, the fate of the bill remains uncertain.
The tax legislation includes sweeping cuts to corporate tax rates, estate taxes, and capital gains, while introducing a flat individual tax bracket for most households. Critics say it disproportionately benefits the wealthy and risks destabilizing the federal budget, while supporters argue it will attract investment and reinvigorate American competitiveness.
As debate moves to the Senate, the bill’s path forward may hinge on revisions to reduce its fiscal footprint—or at least soften its political optics. Some lawmakers have suggested temporary provisions or sunset clauses to win over skeptics.
