France’s plans to double its defense budget by the end of the decade face mounting scrutiny as the country grapples with ballooning public debt and one of Europe’s highest budget deficits. President Emmanuel Macron’s push to ramp up military spending to 3–3.5% of GDP by 2030—a leap from today’s roughly 2%—may clash with economic realities and EU fiscal rules, raising doubts about France’s ability to maintain its status as one of Europe’s military heavyweights.
Under Macron’s vision, France would spend €100 billion annually on defense by the end of the decade, up from approximately €50 billion in 2024. This ambitious increase aligns with NATO’s anticipated new targets, driven by U.S. demands for greater European responsibility in collective security. Yet, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 113%—behind only Greece and Italy—and a 2024 budget deficit of 5.8%, many question whether France can afford the effort without painful trade-offs.
Clément Beaune, a former minister and close ally of Macron, concluded in a recent government-backed report that France would need a “radical push” to find the necessary funding. “We’ll have to make more of an effort than other countries,” Beaune said, citing France’s already high tax levels and legal commitment to reducing its deficit.
Despite this, Macron has refused to consider raising taxes and has ruled out abandoning deficit-reduction goals. Instead, he has called for “tough choices and courage” to fund military expansion. In March, he tasked Prime Minister François Bayrou with identifying budgetary pathways to support defense spending increases—an assignment that remains incomplete, much to Macron’s frustration.
The stakes are high. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Macron has been a vocal advocate for European strategic autonomy, urging the continent to become a credible military power independent of U.S. protection. Yet, critics say France has struggled to back its rhetoric with action, falling behind Germany and the UK in terms of direct aid to Ukraine and troop deployments.
A recent report by conservative senator Dominique de Legge revealed that cost overruns related to Ukraine aid and NATO deployments forced the armed forces to delay payments totaling €8 billion in 2024. At the same time, French defense contractors have voiced frustration over the lack of follow-through on promised procurement increases, despite Macron’s calls for a “war economy.”
France’s challenge is further complicated by inflation and rising borrowing costs, which threaten to erode gains from planned increases. While the defense budget is set to rise from €36 billion in 2019 to €67.4 billion in 2030, experts warn that higher prices for equipment mean France will field fewer fighter jets and tanks by 2035 than it did in 2021—despite the expanded spending.
Élie Tenenbaum, a defense analyst at the Ifri think-tank, warned that France’s ambition to maintain a full-spectrum military—mirroring the capabilities of much larger forces like the U.S.—has left it with a “bonsai army”: broad in scope but too small to sustain prolonged combat operations.
Nonetheless, Macron remains committed to maintaining France’s global military stature, especially as the country is one of the few in Europe with nuclear capabilities. Officials argue that France’s independent deterrent—delivered via submarines and aircraft—sets it apart and helps maintain its leadership within NATO.
While other EU countries, including Germany and Poland, have applied for special deficit rule waivers to fund military spending, France has so far refused to follow suit. Officials fear that such a move would alarm bond markets and worsen France’s already heavy debt servicing burden, which hit €59 billion in 2024 and is forecast to rise to €107 billion by 2029—surpassing education spending.
Still, France is expected to participate in a new EU initiative that provides subsidized loans for joint weapons purchases, aimed at improving collective defense capabilities across the bloc.
The pressure is mounting, however. With Germany and Poland accelerating their military buildups and applying for EU fiscal exemptions to do so, analysts warn that France risks falling behind. “We tend to think of ourselves as the only serious players, but that’s not really true,” said Tenenbaum. “There is a significant risk that France will be passed by its neighbors if it doesn’t act decisively.”
