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India’s Bangladesh Dispute Exposes the Limits of Regional Hegemony

Regional leadership cannot rest on demographic size, economic power or military capability alone.

4 mins read
Recently concluded election in Bangladesh

India’s latest dispute with Bangladesh over alleged “illegal immigrants” has exposed growing contradictions between New Delhi’s regional rhetoric and its actual conduct toward neighbouring states. For years, India has presented itself as South Asia’s stabilizing force – a responsible regional power committed to cooperation, connectivity and mutual respect. Yet the current tensions with Dhaka once again reveal how India’s neighbourhood policy increasingly relies on political pressure, unilateral expectations and diplomatic heavy-handedness rather than genuine partnership.

The controversy intensified after India’s Ministry of External Affairs urged Bangladesh to accelerate nationality verification for nearly 3,000 individuals New Delhi claims are illegal Bangladeshi immigrants residing in India. According to Indian officials, more than 2,862 verification cases remain pending, some unresolved for over five years. India maintains that undocumented foreign nationals must be repatriated under existing laws and bilateral arrangements.

Bangladesh, however, has refused to simply accept India’s claims without verification. Dhaka’s response was careful but significant. Bangladeshi officials warned they would respond to any unilateral “push-in” attempts by India – a term increasingly associated with informal border expulsions and efforts to transfer undocumented individuals without properly established nationality status or due legal procedure.

At one level, the dispute concerns migration management. But politically, it reflects much deeper tensions about sovereignty, regional hierarchy and the nature of India’s relations with its neighbours.

Bangladesh’s refusal to automatically validate India’s claims has publicly challenged New Delhi’s assumption that neighbouring countries will quietly absorb the consequences of India’s domestic political pressures. By demanding proper verification procedures, Dhaka has exposed weaknesses in India’s narrative while also highlighting the absence of transparent evidentiary standards behind many of New Delhi’s allegations.

The episode has also damaged India’s carefully cultivated image as a cooperative regional partner. Behind repeated slogans of “Neighbourhood First” diplomacy, many neighbouring states increasingly encounter a more transactional and pressure-oriented approach. Instead of addressing long-standing governance and border management failures internally, India appears increasingly willing to regionalize politically sensitive domestic issues.

To be fair, India’s concerns regarding undocumented migration are not without legitimacy. Border management along densely populated and economically unequal regions has long posed challenges for successive Indian governments. But the methods, rhetoric and political framing surrounding the issue have generated growing unease across the region.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, migration politics has become closely tied to nationalist mobilization. During election campaigning in West Bengal, allegations of Bangladeshi infiltration were repeatedly amplified for domestic political purposes. In this environment, migration is no longer treated simply as an administrative or humanitarian issue. It has become part of a larger political narrative designed to energize nationalist sentiment and reinforce hardline electoral messaging.

The problem emerges when domestic political narratives begin shaping external policy behavior.

India’s approach toward Bangladesh increasingly reflects this trend. Rather than relying primarily on quiet institutional coordination and mutually agreed mechanisms, New Delhi’s public messaging often creates the impression that neighbouring states are expected to comply with India’s political priorities regardless of legal sensitivities or sovereign concerns. That inevitably produces perceptions of asymmetry rather than partnership.

Bangladesh’s pushback therefore carries significance beyond the immediate migration dispute. It reflects broader discomfort among smaller South Asian states regarding India’s increasingly assertive regional posture.

This unease is not limited to Bangladesh alone. Nepal has experienced repeated tensions with India over border disputes and political pressure. The Maldives has witnessed domestic political polarization tied to perceptions of excessive Indian influence. Sri Lanka itself has periodically navigated concerns regarding strategic dependency amid intensifying Indian Ocean competition. Across the region, there is growing sensitivity toward any relationship perceived as overly unequal or politically coercive.

The controversy also exposes a larger contradiction in India’s regional posture. Internationally, New Delhi frequently presents itself as a democratic counterweight to authoritarian influence in Asia. Yet within its own neighbourhood, India is increasingly viewed by some smaller states as relying on unilateral pressure, diplomatic leverage and politically charged narratives when dealing with its neighbours. The gap between India’s global image and regional conduct is becoming harder to ignore.

The tensions became even more visible when the conversation expanded beyond migration into the Teesta River issue and Bangladesh’s outreach to China for infrastructure cooperation. During his visit to Beijing, Bangladesh’s foreign minister reportedly sought Chinese involvement in the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project – a move that immediately triggered Indian concerns.

India has long opposed Chinese participation in projects connected to the Teesta River because of the river’s proximity to strategically sensitive border regions. Yet from Bangladesh’s perspective, seeking external investment and technical support represents a sovereign developmental decision. Dhaka’s willingness to diversify partnerships reflects a broader regional trend in which smaller states increasingly seek strategic flexibility rather than dependence on any single dominant actor.

Ironically, India’s own regional behavior may be accelerating this process.

The more New Delhi relies on public pressure, politicized rhetoric and unilateral expectations, the more neighbouring countries may feel compelled to hedge strategically by expanding ties with alternative powers, particularly China. In the long run, this could weaken India’s regional influence far more than any individual infrastructure project or diplomatic disagreement.

Equally important is the reputational dimension. Regional perceptions are shaped less by official slogans and more by political experience. When neighbouring states encounter aggressive border rhetoric, migration-related pressure tactics and disregard for sovereign verification procedures, India’s claims of cooperative regional leadership become increasingly difficult to sustain.

Bangladesh’s resistance therefore carries symbolic importance beyond the immediate dispute. It demonstrates that smaller South Asian states are becoming more willing to publicly defend sovereign procedures and challenge regional pressure even when confronting a far larger neighbour. More importantly, it signals growing frustration across the region with what many increasingly perceive as an overbearing and hierarchical approach to regional politics.

For India, this should serve as an important strategic warning.

Regional leadership cannot rest on demographic size, economic power or military capability alone. Durable influence depends on trust, legitimacy and the ability to reassure neighbouring states rather than pressure them. If India increasingly comes to be viewed as coercive rather than cooperative, it risks undermining the very regional influence it seeks to preserve.

The current confrontation over alleged illegal immigrants is therefore not only about migration. It is also about power, hierarchy and the future political balance of South Asia itself. Bangladesh’s response demonstrates that regional states are becoming less willing to quietly accommodate India’s political imperatives without question.

That reality may ultimately prove more consequential for South Asian geopolitics than the migration dispute itself.

Saima Afzal

Saima Afzal is a researcher specializing in South Asian security, counterterrorism, and broader geopolitical dynamics across the Middle East, Afghanistan, and the Indo-Pacific. Her work examines strategic affairs and evolving patterns of regional conflict. She is currently a Research Scholar at Justus Liebig University, Germany.

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