by Yossi Melman
In a matter of hours, Israeli intelligence and military proved its tactical and operational capabilities twice over. On Tuesday evening, an airstrike using a precision-guided missile on a building in Beirut’s Dahiyeh neighborhood – a Hezbollah stronghold – killed Fuad Shukr, a woman and two children. Shukr was a top Hezbollah commander wanted by both the U.S. and Israel; the latter had tried to assassinate him several times over the years.
Seven hours later, in an even more daring operation imputed to Israel, if foreign reports are accurate, another precision-guided missile killed Ismail Haniyeh, the leader-in-exile of Hamas. His residence in Tehran was struck at 2 A.M., killing him and his bodyguard. When the war in Gaza began in October, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Mossad Director David Barnea promised that they would kill Hamas leaders wherever they are.
From the perspective of most Israelis – right and left, coalition and opposition, as well as the defense establishment – both were terrorist leaders who deserved death.
The only difference between the two operations is that while Israel proudly claimed responsibility for the hit on Shukr, it has maintained silence on the killing of Haniyeh, who lost his sons and other relatives in the war in Gaza.
Some Israelis, not least Netanyahu’s right-wing government and its supporters, argue that the two hits are part of a necessary process of restoring Israel’s deterrence and self-confidence, shattered by the surprise Hamas attack on October 7 that saw hundreds of men, women and children massacred and 260 hostages kidnapped.
To be sure, the morale of the depressed public, grappling daily with a terrible war that has no end in sight, may be boosted temporarily. It is also evident that Israeli intelligence – both the Mossad spy agency and Military Intelligence – have penetrated both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian defenses, and not for the first time.
Mossad agents and Israeli pilots have conducted similar operations in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Sudan and Iran. According to foreign reports, in the past, the Mossad operatives were Israeli nationals. However, based on these reports, for over a decade, mercenaries from foreign nations have been recruited and paid handsomely for some of the missions in a bid to lower the risks.
The strikes on Haniyeh and Shukr are not a game-changer. In the past, Israel used targeted killings of Palestinian terrorists or Iranian nuclear scientists as a last resort and as part of a wider strategy. Assassinations were meant to serve meaningful diplomatic aims. But since the beginning of the war, which has dragged on for 10 months, it seems that the doctrine of targeted killing has become an end in itself.
Lacking any coherent plan for ending the war, while vowing that it will continue for years to come, the Netanyahu government is driven only by vengeance and is enamored with targeted killings. Hezbollah and Iran have promised to retaliate, and the ping-pong game of action and reaction by all parties is likely to continue.
Iran’s pride has been dealt a particularly harsh blow, as its sovereignty was violated a day after the swearing-in of a new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Haniyeh was visiting Tehran for the inauguration ceremony and to discuss the future of Hamas and the war in Gaza with Iran’s leaders.
Meanwhile, Israel is in deep crisis. Its society is divided as never before. Radical right-wing zealots are turning the violent methods they’ve used on Palestinians against liberal Israeli protesters, the judiciary and the media. The economy is in tatters. Many Israelis, especially the young, are considering leaving and resettling abroad. They see no hope in the future. Israel may find itself on the brink of a civil war.
The two killings will only make Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran more stubborn and determined.
In 2008, a joint Mossad-CIA operation in Damascus killed Imad Mughniyeh, Hezbollah’s “defense minister,” with a car bomb. Israel said it would be difficult for Hezbollah to recover that after his death. Nevertheless, the group emerged even stronger, and sooner than expected. Terrorists and their leaders are replaceable.
If Israel had wise leaders who think outside the box, it could use the killings as leverage to reach an overall settlement and bring some measure of tranquility to the tormented Israeli public. But the Netanyahu government, with its zealous, racist and messianic ministers, talk about a “total victory” that they know all too well is not achievable.
The risk of a regional war is becoming more acute. A cease-fire and end to hostilities, as well as the release of the hostages, are more distant. The fear is that the gradual escalation we have witnessed in the past several months may spiral out of control.
Courtesy: Haaretz
