For more than two decades, Pakistan has conducted repeated counterterrorism campaigns against Taliban militants and Baloch insurgents in its western regions bordering Afghanistan and Iran. Yet the country remains caught in a persistent cycle of attacks, retaliatory operations and renewed insurgent activity, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan continuing to experience near-daily violence against security forces, government officials and other prominent targets.
Militants have attacked patrols, checkpoints, police stations and administrative centres using roadside bombs, explosive-laden drones, coordinated ambushes, suicide attacks, large-scale raids, assassinations and kidnappings. Soldiers, police officers and civilians are killed every month. Pakistan’s military regularly announces successful counterterrorism operations, often reporting that hundreds of militants have been killed. Its statements frequently describe insurgents as having been “sent to hell”, with only a small number left alive for interrogation.
Those operational successes, however, have not produced the strategic outcome Islamabad has sought. Farwa Aamer, director of South Asia initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, said military force alone could not resolve the problem. “Force alone won’t help in curbing security issues long term,” she said. “Force will continue to meet force, keeping the loop alive. There has to be some political solution and dialogue.” Without such a solution, or at least a viable long-term strategy, she said continuing instability could deter foreign investment, including investment connected to Pakistan’s critical minerals sector.
The most immediate escalation has centred on the porous Pakistan-Afghanistan border, which armed groups have long used for sanctuary, smuggling and logistical support. Following months of terrorist campaigns and rising casualties, Pakistan has repeatedly responded with air strikes against militants it says are based in Afghanistan. On Monday, Pakistani military aircraft struck what the information ministry described as Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, “terrorist camps and safe havens” in Afghanistan’s Paktika and Kunar provinces. The ministry said 28 militants were killed, including suicide bombers undergoing training.
The strikes followed a September 18 assault on a mosque at a police compound in Kohat in north-western Pakistan that killed at least 31 people and injured more than 100. Zabihullah Mujahid, chief spokesman for Afghanistan’s Taliban regime, has repeatedly denied that terrorist camps exist in Afghanistan. He said the Pakistani strikes had killed three civilians and subsequently vowed revenge.
Tensions escalated further on Thursday when Pakistani security officials said eight “rudimentary” drones had entered Pakistani airspace from Afghanistan. All were reportedly shot down, including four near Kohat. Mujahid again denied responsibility. Pakistani officials, however, regarded the incursions as further evidence that Kabul was actively supporting the TTP rather than merely tolerating its presence.
Pakistan responded with what Information Minister Attaullah Tarar described as “precision aerial and drone strikes” on 10 locations in Afghanistan that he said were being used to launch and store the drones. The latest escalation followed unsuccessful diplomatic efforts involving China, Turkey and Qatar. According to Islamabad-based security analyst Iftikhar Firdous, officials meeting in Belarus this summer discussed a possible joint mechanism to monitor the cross-border movement of TTP militants. The talks reportedly failed because Kabul would not agree to compel the TTP to stop attacks on Pakistan or move militants away from the border.
The diplomatic effort had continued shortly before the Kohat attack, when Qatar’s National Security Council deputy secretary general Hamad Khamis al-Kubaisi and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalın visited Kabul in an attempt to facilitate further Pakistani-Afghan discussions. Pakistan has subsequently indicated that it believes the Taliban government has shown little genuine willingness to address the issue.
Analysts also point to weaknesses inside Pakistan’s own counterterrorism system. Riccardo Valle, a researcher tracking militancy across South and Central Asia, described Islamabad’s approach as “incomplete and limited”. Local grievances, weak governance and inadequate resources constrain operations in the affected areas, he said, while police forces in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan are poorly equipped to confront “full-fledged insurgencies”. The emphasis on reactive intelligence-based operations rather than preventive measures is another limitation. “Thus, tactical success cannot compensate for a broader strategic deficiency, which fuels a circle of instability,” Valle said, describing the twin insurgencies as a “multigenerational issue” capable of drawing successive generations of young militants into violence.
The security challenge is also becoming more complicated in Balochistan, where signs of tactical cooperation have emerged between the TTP and Baloch separatist organisations. The province, which borders southern Afghanistan and eastern Iran, experienced a marked increase in attacks during the summer. In July, the TTP and Balochistan Liberation Army carried out separate attacks in Pishin and Ziarat districts within hours of one another.
Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher at the University of Technology Sydney, said tactical coordination, including reports of joint training and logistical links, was “increasingly documented”. He nevertheless doubted that the two movements would form a “durable strategic coalition”. The TTP seeks to overthrow Pakistan’s government and establish an Islamist political order, while Baloch separatist groups are primarily concerned with independence. Linguistic, cultural and geographic differences also restrict their ability to operate in each other’s core areas, making cooperation more likely to remain focused on tactics and targets.
Pakistan’s relations with Iran have improved since the two countries exchanged air strikes against militants on each other’s territory in January 2024. Islamabad also helped broker talks earlier this year aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran. But Faisal said the wider conflict and continuing mistrust could still hamper bilateral relations. Pakistan has also accused India of covertly supporting Baloch separatists, although Faisal argued that Islamabad should closely monitor separatist networks rather than treating every attack as evidence of foreign sponsorship. The more immediate concern, he said, was whether conflict involving Iran could create a security vacuum exploited by militants and foreign intelligence operatives. “This is a serious security risk, but one best managed through intelligence cooperation and sustained diplomacy,” Faisal said.
