OpenAI may need to raise more than $200 billion in fresh capital by the end of the decade to keep pace with soaring computing demands and global AI competition, according to new research from HSBC cited by several media outlets. The findings underline the enormous financial pressures behind the rapid expansion of the AI industry, even as OpenAI cements its status as the world’s most valuable private company.
HSBC’s updated financial model — circulated to clients this week — follows OpenAI’s sweeping long-term cloud and compute agreements with Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle, which lock the company into vast infrastructure commitments. Even under optimistic revenue forecasts, the bank estimates OpenAI faces a $207bn funding shortfall by 2030, with revenues projected to reach about $129bn.
A major driver of that gap is the skyrocketing cost of compute. HSBC reportedly estimates that OpenAI’s cumulative cloud-rental bill could total roughly $800bn by the end of the decade as the company trains and runs increasingly advanced AI models. The analysis also forecasts extraordinary user growth, predicting ChatGPT could reach 3 billion regular users by 2030 — up from approximately 800 million last month. That would represent nearly 44% of the global adult population outside China.
The projections come at a moment of intense investment across the tech sector. Since the launch of ChatGPT three years ago, OpenAI has sat at the center of the AI boom, drawing massive interest from venture capitalists and Big Tech firms racing to secure data-centre capacity and cutting-edge chips. But analysts have cautioned that spending may be accelerating faster than actual returns, raising the risk of an AI-driven investment bubble.
Governments have also taken notice of the global race. Russia recently warned of the dangers of an AI “arms race,” arguing that unrestrained competition could destabilize economies and even geopolitical systems.
OpenAI, meanwhile, continues to surge in valuation. In October, the company surpassed Elon Musk’s SpaceX to become the world’s most valuable private firm, reaching a valuation of around $500bn following a $6.6bn employee share sale.
As the AI landscape expands and compute requirements grow exponentially, HSBC’s analysis suggests OpenAI may face one of the most aggressive capital-raising challenges in tech history — a test that could shape not only the company’s future, but the trajectory of the global AI race itself.
