Germany’s nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD), long in opposition and labeled “right-wing extremist” by the country’s domestic intelligence agency, is positioning itself to take power in state governments for the first time, potentially transforming the nation’s political landscape. Founded 13 years ago, the AfD has built its platform on opposition to immigration, the European Union, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s governing coalition. This year, it eyes a historic breakthrough in the eastern states of Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where opinion polls show the party leading by wide margins ahead of elections in 2026.
Political analysts warn that an AfD victory in either state could fundamentally challenge Germany’s consensus-driven democracy. “It would massively challenge the institutional framework of consensus democracy in Germany,” said Benjamin Höhne, a political scientist at the Chemnitz University of Technology. The party’s ideology, which the domestic intelligence agency says treats Muslim residents as “non-equal members” of the ethnically defined German population, has led to repeated calls for it to be banned. Mainstream parties, including Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), have maintained a strict “fire wall” against collaborating with the AfD.
Despite these barriers, the AfD has gained significant support amid three years of economic stagnation, voter disillusionment with establishment parties, and lingering unease over migration waves under former Chancellor Angela Merkel. In the eastern states, economically lagging since reunification, the AfD sits far ahead of rivals, polling at around 40 percent in Saxony-Anhalt and showing strong leads in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Analysts suggest that in Germany’s multiparty system, where parties receiving less than 5 percent of votes are excluded from parliament, the AfD could achieve governing majorities with only modest overperformance relative to polls.
Party leaders are already preparing for governance. Hannes Gnauck, an AfD Bundestag lawmaker, said the party would deploy its top talent to Saxony-Anhalt if it wins a majority. “If we form a single-party government in Saxony-Anhalt … and we fail, then that will have repercussions at the federal level,” he said. Meanwhile, AfD deputy leader Beatrix von Storch expressed confidence that the current CDU-SPD coalition is finite and predicted that political shifts could open the door for the AfD to influence federal politics before 2029.
Coalition negotiations could be complex if the AfD falls short of outright majorities. Other parties could theoretically form anti-AfD coalitions, but this might require the CDU to work with the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) or the SPD, a prospect fraught with ideological and historical tensions. Analysts note that a coalition between the AfD and the BSW, despite seeming unlikely, shares overlapping stances on EU skepticism, social issues, and climate policy.
The AfD’s rise follows trends seen across Europe, where right-wing parties have entered governing coalitions in Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, Hungary, and Finland. In Germany, however, no far-right party has held state or national power since World War II. Success in Saxony-Anhalt or Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania would grant the AfD control over key state institutions, including interior ministries and representation in the Bundesrat, further legitimizing the party and boosting its national profile.
Even outside the eastern states, the AfD is testing its strength. In western states like Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, polls show support around 20 percent, trailing the CDU, but party leaders argue that outperforming expectations could trigger a “political earthquake” by forcing mainstream parties to rethink coalition strategies. Markus Frohnmaier, an AfD deputy leader, said, “If the CDU has to govern with the Greens, the Left Party and the SPD in order to form majorities, then their core voter groups will abandon them, and the AfD will continue to grow.”
With elections approaching and voter discontent mounting, the AfD’s potential ascent signals a pivotal moment in German politics, testing the resilience of the country’s postwar consensus and redefining the boundaries of mainstream governance. As von Storch noted, “If we aren’t banned, we’ll eventually have to be involved, because there simply won’t be any other majorities.”
