Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached a significant breakthrough in their long-running peace negotiations, agreeing on the language of a historic agreement that could officially end decades of hostilities. The announcement, which signals a major step toward regional stability, has been welcomed by Western officials, though key sticking points remain before a final treaty can be signed.
After months of intense discussions mediated by the European Union and occasionally by Russia, Azerbaijan’s foreign minister Jeyhun Bayramov confirmed late Thursday that negotiations had concluded. Armenia’s foreign ministry also endorsed the latest proposal, stating that the peace agreement is “ready for signing” and that Yerevan is prepared to consult with Baku on the date and location for the official signing ceremony.
The negotiations have been particularly sensitive following Azerbaijan’s rapid military operation in the autumn of 2023, which resulted in Baku reclaiming control over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The offensive triggered the mass displacement of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians, effectively ending the region’s de facto self-rule since 1991. The swift takeover was seen in Yerevan as a betrayal by Russia, which had historically acted as Armenia’s protector but was increasingly preoccupied with its war in Ukraine.
Western leaders have hailed the apparent breakthrough as a step toward lasting peace. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the agreement a “decisive step toward security in the South Caucasus,” while Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock praised Armenia for making “courageous concessions.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the deal as an opportunity for both nations to “turn the page on a decades-old conflict” and urged them to formally commit to the agreement.
However, experts warn that significant hurdles remain. Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, noted that while the agreement “lowers the risk of war,” several unresolved issues could delay its implementation. One of the most contentious demands comes from Azerbaijan, which insists that Armenia amend its constitution to remove references to Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has expressed interest in drafting a new constitution, is hesitant to be seen as making constitutional changes under pressure from Baku, especially with elections looming in 2026. Some analysts believe this issue may not be resolved until at least 2027.
Another critical challenge is Azerbaijan’s demand for a corridor through Armenian territory to connect the Azerbaijani mainland with the exclave of Nakhchivan. Many in Yerevan view this as a potential threat to Armenia’s territorial integrity. Additionally, the fate of several ethnic Armenian leaders from Nagorno-Karabakh currently on trial in Baku remains uncertain. Among them is businessman Ruben Vardanyan, who was arrested while attempting to flee the enclave and has since launched a hunger strike to protest what he calls a “judicial farce.”
Despite these lingering disputes, both sides have reportedly agreed to withdraw lawsuits filed against each other in international courts, marking a rare point of consensus. However, Azerbaijan has also pushed for the removal of an OSCE monitoring mission stationed along the volatile border, with Azerbaijani Ambassador to the UK Elin Suleymanov arguing that the mission is “long irrelevant and obsolete.”
Beyond bilateral relations, the peace process also has broader geopolitical implications, particularly for Armenia’s ties with Turkey. Relations between Yerevan and Ankara have long been strained due to the historical dispute over the 1915 mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire. However, diplomatic efforts have gained momentum since Azerbaijan’s takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, with both sides recently easing visa restrictions and discussing the reopening of trade routes. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan expressed optimism on Thursday, stating that the normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations is now “a matter of time.”
While the latest developments offer hope for a long-term resolution, the path to lasting peace remains uncertain. With unresolved constitutional disputes, territorial disagreements, and historical grievances still in play, the next phase of negotiations will be crucial in determining whether this agreement can truly end one of the region’s most enduring conflicts.
