China’s population will continue to age rapidly before 2050 even if birth rates recover significantly, according to a new report that describes the country’s demographic shift as unavoidable in the coming decades while arguing that efforts to increase fertility remain critical to limiting longer-term economic challenges.
The report, led by Zhongtai Securities Chief Economist Li Xunlei, concludes that “a rapid increase in China’s ageing population rate before 2050 is inevitable,” despite any realistic improvement in the country’s fertility rate.
According to the analysis, even under an optimistic scenario in which China’s total fertility rate rises above 1.3 births per woman from its current level of about 1.05, the proportion of people aged 65 and older would still reach 29% of the population by the middle of the century. The report says that demographic profile would closely resemble present-day Japan, currently regarded as the world’s most aged society.
The findings come as China continues to face a sustained decline in births and a shrinking population. Official data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the country’s population fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, while births dropped 17% to a record low of 7.9 million.
Demographers generally regard a fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman as the level needed to maintain a stable population without immigration. Like several other East Asian economies, China’s fertility rate has remained well below that threshold.
Although a recovery to above 1.3 births per woman would not slow population ageing in the coming decades, the report says it would significantly improve China’s long-term dependency ratio, which measures the number of children and retirees relative to the working-age population.
Under that scenario, the dependency ratio would reach 74% by the end of the century. If fertility rates continue to decline, however, the ratio could rise to 120% by 2100, leaving China with more dependents than working-age citizens.
China’s demographic challenges have been shaped by decades of family planning policies and growing economic pressures that continue to discourage many young people from marrying and having children.
In response, authorities have introduced a series of measures aimed at encouraging higher birth rates. These include extending marriage leave in several provinces and launching a nationwide childcare subsidy programme designed to reduce the financial burden of raising children.
The Zhongtai Securities report argues that such policies are likely to be more effective in rural areas and smaller towns, where living costs are lower, than in major urban centres. The analysts also suggest that government support should focus on families that already have one child rather than couples who have chosen to remain childless.
“Policies designed to encourage these people to marry and have children will certainly be less effective than those aimed at encouraging families who are willing to do so to have a second or further children,” the report states, adding that supportive measures should reduce the costs associated with raising larger families.
The study also identifies demographic imbalances that could limit future improvements in fertility. According to the report, the generation born between 2006 and 2010, which will soon enter the marriage market, includes about 20% more males than females. The analysts also note that women now represent a larger share of the higher-educated population, increasing challenges for lower-educated men seeking partners.
The report concludes that addressing broader social factors, including the difficulties faced by lower-educated rural men in finding spouses, will be an important part of any effort to raise China’s fertility rate while the country continues to prepare for a rapidly ageing population in the decades ahead.
