In a historic shift for German politics, Friedrich Merz and his center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc emerged victorious in the federal elections, securing around 29% of the vote, according to projections. Despite the win, Merz faces the challenge of forming a coalition in what could become a complex political landscape, as Germany veers to the right during a period of profound change for Europe.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to second place with a record-breaking 21% of the vote, marking its most significant gains since the party’s inception. The election result reflects growing anti-immigrant sentiment following a series of violent incidents involving migrants and economic stagnation fueled by high energy prices and increasing competition from China.
In remarks that echoed sentiments reported by the Financial Times (FT), Merz signaled a dramatic shift in Germany’s foreign policy, pledging to reduce the nation’s reliance on the United States. “It must be an absolute priority to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we actually achieve independence from the USA,” Merz stated. His comments highlighted concerns over US President Donald Trump’s perceived indifference toward European security and growing transatlantic tensions.
Merz also questioned the future of NATO, expressing frustration with what he perceived as interference from Washington in the German election campaign—drawing controversial comparisons to Russian meddling. The Trump administration has openly supported the AfD and criticized mainstream German politicians for distancing themselves from the far-right party, which has been accused of using rhetoric reminiscent of the Nazi era.
Outgoing Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck described the election result as presenting Germany with a “historical challenge,” warning that the US was not just disengaging from Europe but actively working against it.
Coalition talks are expected to be arduous, with Merz’s likely partner, outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), achieving only 16%—its worst showing since 1887. Traditional allies like the Free Democrats (FDP) risk falling below the 5% threshold needed for parliamentary representation. Meanwhile, the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is on the verge of entering parliament, further complicating the path to a majority.
Merz acknowledged the difficulties ahead, stating, “I know the scale of the challenge that lies ahead of us. It will not be easy.” A potential coalition with the Greens is seen as the most viable route to achieving a stable government.
Voter turnout reached 84%, the highest since German reunification in 1990, underscoring the election’s significance. The CDU/CSU’s strategy to avoid a multi-partner coalition may face hurdles, particularly as fringe parties gain strength, raising concerns about potential obstacles to constitutional reforms.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, warned that fringe parties could block essential reforms, including adjustments to Germany’s debt brake and increased military spending. Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing urged swift government formation, emphasizing the need for decisive action in the face of economic and geopolitical challenges.
