A two-month negotiating period between the United States and Iran has ended without a final agreement, with the prospects for renewed diplomacy appearing increasingly uncertain. Instead, tensions have intensified over Iran’s nuclear programme and the future of the Strait of Hormuz, as both sides continue to issue increasingly forceful statements.
Under a framework agreement signed around two months ago, Washington and Tehran were expected to resolve their remaining disputes, particularly over Iran’s nuclear programme, within the designated period. The agreement also included a ceasefire and other provisions, but the ceasefire has been violated several times in recent weeks.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragtschi said Tehran had not yet decided whether to enter new negotiations. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has renewed his demand for US control over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the central issues complicating efforts to prevent further escalation.
According to security sources in Pakistan, which has acted as a mediator, the ceasefire could be extended by another 60 or 90 days. It remained unclear, however, whether such an extension would be publicly announced.
The dispute over the Strait of Hormuz has become particularly contentious. Trump has repeatedly claimed that the United States has control over the strategic waterway. At a campaign appearance in New Jersey, he went further, declaring: “Sobald wir den Iran besiegt haben – der gerade eine vernichtende Niederlage erleidet –, werde ich die Hormus-Straße zum Territorium der Vereinigten Staaten erklären” — that once the United States had defeated Iran, he would declare the Strait of Hormuz US territory.
Iran rejected the claim. Deputy Foreign Minister Kasem Gharibabadi wrote on X that the Strait of Hormuz could not be taken “per Tweet” or by an aircraft carrier, command or campaign speech. He said Iran was not afraid of threats or intimidated by displays of power, arguing that the United States had suffered a strategic and serious defeat. “Die Straße von Hormus gehörte dem Iran, gehört dem Iran und wird dem Iran gehören,” he wrote.
Iran says it controls much of the strategically important waterway and has made the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, the withdrawal of US forces from the region and full compensation for war damage conditions for reopening the strait.
A separate deadline is also approaching. Iran’s commitment to allow fee-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz expires this weekend. The future arrangements governing shipping through the waterway are being discussed in negotiations between Iran and Oman, although no agreement has yet been announced.
The dispute is already having a direct impact on commercial shipping. Since the war began in February, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has largely come to a standstill. Ships have repeatedly come under attack in the waterway, often by Iran’s allies.
The United Arab Emirates’ state news agency WAM reported another series of attacks on commercial vessels during the latest night, including an attack on a ship belonging to the UAE state-owned oil company Adnoc. No one was injured, while details of possible damage were initially unavailable. The UAE blamed Iran for the attack. Abu Dhabi had reported on Thursday evening that two Adnoc vessels had also been attacked by Iran in the strait.
The confrontation follows a major escalation earlier this year. The United States and Israel jointly attacked Iran at the end of February, killing senior members of its leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran responded with attacks, including against US military bases in Gulf states.
With the negotiating deadline now expired and no final agreement in place, the immediate future of the ceasefire, the nuclear negotiations and commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. Pakistan’s mediation efforts may provide an opportunity to extend the ceasefire, but the increasingly direct confrontation over the strategic waterway highlights how far the parties remain from a durable settlement.
