The Gaza summit in Egypt last week, which gathered a galaxy of world leaders, unexpectedly featured a moment of high drama involving the Italian leader when President Trump abruptly paused his remarks to declare, “I’m not allowed to say it — because usually it’s the end of your political career if you say it — she’s a beautiful young woman,” before adding, “But I’ll take my chances. Where is she? There she is. You don’t mind being called beautiful right? Because you are.” According to analysis in The Times UK, Meloni handled the comment deftly, managing a broad smile towards Trump without visibly nodding agreement, only to snap back to her signature “fiercest power stare” once the American leader turned away. This diplomatic control comes as Meloni approaches three years in government on October 22, a milestone which in politically volatile Italy is seen to amount to “decades in politician years,” and one which coincides with strong poll ratings at home and a positive outlook for the Italian economy from credit rating agencies. Italy’s relative stability stands in stark contrast to its neighbor France, which, as The Times UK noted, has “gone full Italian,” with governments collapsing almost daily.
The prime minister’s domestic strength is anchored in her forthright character, a trait a senior member of her team credits with breaking the Italian tradition of voters getting bored with a politician after about 18 months. Her government is on track to become Italy’s longest-lasting, surpassing the record set by the late Silvio Berlusconi’s 2001–05 administration by September 4 next year. Commentator Beppe Severgnini sees this appeal as a balancing act between two political personas, noting, “One is the tough rabble rouser who shouts, who attacks migration and calls pro-Palestine marchers Hamas. That gets her 25 to 28 per cent of the vote. Then there is the second Meloni, who looks moderate in Egypt besides [Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin] Netanyahu, [Turkey’s President] Erdogan and Trump, let alone Salvini and Vannacci, who are trying to be [Hungary’s President] Orban. That gets her another 10 per cent.” On the international front, Meloni has successfully shed the lingering unease over the fascist roots of her Brothers of Italy party, which had been highlighted during her 2022 election, by firmly backing Ukraine, a position which separates her from the Russophilia-tinged hard-right figures like Orban and Le Pen.
Despite her political successes and consolidation of power, Meloni faces significant economic headwinds that threaten her bid for a second term by 2027. While employment is up and budget deficits are controlled, Italian gross domestic product growth is described as “anaemic” and real wages have dropped by 4.4 per cent between 2019 and last year. Carlo Altomonte, an economics professor at Bocconi University in Milan, pointed out that Italy is “the only EU member where real wages did not recover after Covid and the Ukraine energy shock.” Meloni struggled to offer clear solutions during a recent televised interview when confronted with a public that does not feel well off, initially deflecting blame onto previous governments and the European Union before weakly promising that salaries were rising, a pledge that fails to comfort shoppers facing soaring food prices. Furthermore, the Italian economy is currently being propped up by a crucial injection of 194 billion euros in post-Covid grants and loans from the European Union, which Altomonte notes accounts for a 0.8 per cent bonus in GDP growth. The economist warned that “there would be no GDP growth without that money,” a crucial fact Meloni has refrained from mentioning publicly, perhaps because the EU funding clashes with her nationalistic narrative. The two key challenges for the prime minister moving forward are tackling low workforce training—Italian firms train only 9 per cent of staff on the job compared with the 30 per cent EU average—and cutting high energy costs by imposing the EU’s agreed price cap and floor system on domestic energy companies.
