German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces a critical few weeks as electoral setbacks, internal party divisions and renewed tensions within his governing coalition threaten his political authority. With the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) struggling to recover from disappointing results in several elections, Merz must demonstrate that he can stabilise his government while preventing the party’s crisis from deepening.
The CDU suffered defeats in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while its performance in Berlin also fell short of expectations. In Schwerin, the party lost its representation in the state parliament. In Magdeburg, an Alternative for Germany (AfD) politician was elected state parliament president, amid allegations that four CDU lawmakers may have supported him. Meanwhile, in Berlin, the Left Party, Greens and Social Democrats are exploring a possible coalition.
The developments have intensified questions about Merz’s leadership and the future of the political barriers traditionally separating mainstream conservatives from the far right.
The CDU leadership is due to meet for an extraordinary strategy session in Berlin on Sunday and Monday. Merz is expected to present a credible plan for reversing the party’s declining fortunes and restoring confidence among its state leaders.
Three challenges will dominate the coming weeks: keeping the coalition government functioning, defining a political direction for the CDU and limiting the damage from the crisis in Saxony-Anhalt.
A fragile coalition faces difficult reforms
A meeting of senior figures from the CDU, its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) on Wednesday ended without major decisions. Nevertheless, participants from both sides described the discussions as more constructive than anticipated.
Relations between the coalition partners had deteriorated in recent weeks, with increasingly confrontational statements raising doubts about their willingness to continue governing together. Wednesday’s meeting included disagreements, particularly over the political consequences of the elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Berlin, but the discussion reportedly remained factual. Some participants stayed behind for a beer after the formal meeting ended.
Both parties said they had reviewed outstanding reform proposals and agreed to continue implementing their coalition agreement. A timetable for the next steps was expected to be finalised before the weekend.
SPD leader and Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil acknowledged that differences remained over pension reform but expressed confidence that they could be resolved if both parties were willing to compromise.
That optimism, however, may prove difficult to sustain. Only six regular weeks of parliamentary sessions remain before the end of the year, leaving limited time to pass legislation. The coalition must also persuade increasingly assertive parliamentary factions and state leaders, whose willingness to challenge their national leadership has grown as Merz and Klingbeil have lost authority.
Renewable energy policy and electoral reform could become additional sources of conflict. The CDU wants substantial cuts to support under the Renewable Energy Sources Act, while the SPD opposes them. Without agreement, the existing arrangements are due to expire at the end of the year. Conservative lawmakers are also increasingly frustrated with what they regard as delays by the SPD in implementing an agreed change to electoral law.
The immediate task is therefore not simply to preserve the coalition but to demonstrate that it can still govern effectively.
Merz must give the CDU a convincing direction
The forthcoming CDU leadership meeting will test whether Merz can unite a party increasingly divided over its political priorities and governing strategy.
Earlier this year, conservatives had hoped to have ten state premiers in office by the autumn. Instead, the number could soon fall to six. Sven Schulze in Saxony-Anhalt and Berlin Mayor Kai Wegner are both serving in caretaker capacities following their parties’ setbacks.
Several influential state leaders are calling for a clear political plan. Sebastian Lechner, the CDU leader in Lower Saxony, has demanded a convincing strategy, while North Rhine-Westphalia Premier Hendrik Wüst and Schleswig-Holstein Premier Daniel Günther have their own electoral calculations to consider ahead of state elections in April 2027.
The party is divided over what that strategy should entail. Lechner has advocated economic renewal combined with social fairness. Hesse Premier Boris Rhein wants the CDU to place greater emphasis on conservative positions, while the party’s parliamentary group insists that planned reforms should be implemented without dilution.
The debate also concerns Merz’s leadership style, the government’s performance and the party’s identity as a governing force. The leadership intends to carry the discussion into the wider organisation, including a conference of local party chairpersons scheduled for the first week of November.
Merz needs support from the state premiers, but their growing demands for influence could complicate his control over the federal government. CSU leader Markus Söder, another powerful figure within the governing alliance, is unlikely to accept an expanded role for state leaders without resistance.
Saxony-Anhalt exposes the limits of Merz’s authority
The third challenge is the growing crisis over the AfD’s influence in Saxony-Anhalt.
The CDU leadership maintains that it will not cooperate with either the AfD or the Left Party. But the position could face a severe test if AfD state leader Ulrich Siegmund is elected minister-president in Magdeburg in December.
The state leadership vote will be secret, and there is currently no evidence establishing an agreement between AfD politicians and CDU lawmakers. The AfD nevertheless claims that four Christian Democrats have promised to support Siegmund.
After an AfD politician was elected state parliament president, Merz cautioned against drawing premature conclusions, suggesting that political false-flag operations were possible. That explanation has failed to convince everyone within his own party, while the SPD has also expressed reservations.
Merz has simultaneously urged the SPD and Greens in Berlin not to form a government led by the Left Party, which the CDU accuses of antisemitism and links to criminal clans. The dispute has exposed tensions over how consistently the coalition’s parties apply their commitments to reject cooperation with extremist and anti-democratic political forces.
Yet Merz may lack the authority to discipline the deeply divided CDU parliamentary group in Saxony-Anhalt, where many members regard him as a principal contributor to the election defeat. Klingbeil faces similar difficulties within his own party in Berlin.
The CDU also remembers the consequences of its failed intervention in Thuringia in 2020, when it joined the AfD in helping elect the liberal Thomas Kemmerich as minister-president. The resulting crisis contributed to the resignation of then CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.
Merz will be keen to avoid repeating that episode. But with his coalition under pressure, his party divided and the AfD gaining influence, the coming weeks could determine whether he can restore political control—or whether the crises now confronting him begin to threaten his position as chancellor and party leader.
