When President Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff arrives in Moscow this week for high-stakes negotiations, he is expected to receive a cordial reception, though Russia is showing little appetite for compromise. According to Times UK, President Vladimir Putin has insisted that the peace plan emerging from recent US-Ukraine talks in Geneva should form the basis of “serious discussion,” while emphasizing that all 28 original points remain important to Moscow. Reports suggest the Americans have agreed to remove or rewrite several points, but Putin’s stance hints at a maximalist, take-it-or-leave-it approach, a development that could be an embarrassment for Trump, who has publicly expressed optimism about a deal.
The Kremlin’s confidence is underpinned by recent battlefield gains, including advances in Pokrovsk, alongside continued missile strikes on Ukraine’s power infrastructure. Rolling blackouts have become routine, leaving thousands in Kyiv without electricity after attacks on Friday night. The humanitarian and material toll of the conflict remains high, with residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia set ablaze in recent strikes. At the same time, a corruption scandal has forced the resignation of Andrii Yermak, President Zelensky’s chief aide, while Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is set to step down in January.
Putin’s approach is opportunistic. While some Kremlin officials, including former ambassador to Washington Yuri Ushakov, are encouraging pragmatism, Putin has repeatedly emphasized that he is prepared to enforce his demands militarily if Ukrainian forces refuse to retreat. A former insider told Times UK that the Russian leader, long accustomed to issuing orders without concern for cost, is now acting as a “war accountant,” weighing the human and economic costs of prolonged conflict. Russia continues to recruit roughly 30,000 volunteers monthly, but rising signing-on bonuses indicate growing reluctance among potential recruits, with some regions like Yakutia unable to meet promised payments without federal intervention.
Diplomatically, Putin’s style combines toughness with selective compromise. While token gestures such as Russia’s potential return to the G8 are unlikely to impress him, he is reportedly seeking explicit guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO, staged sanctions relief, and control over the remaining fifth of Donetsk. Ukrainian officials view ceding territory as unacceptable, highlighting the gap between Russian demands and Kyiv’s capacity to compromise.
Putin is also leveraging the talks to strain transatlantic relations. By portraying European leaders as obstructing the peace process, Moscow positions itself to exploit divisions within the West and limit pressure to reach an agreement. As one Russian émigré observed, “the less the Europeans like any deal, the more warmly he will look on it.” For now, Putin retains strategic flexibility, and with confidence bolstered by battlefield gains, he appears prepared to double down rather than yield.
