Note from Our Editorial Desk
The weather and flood forecast for Sri Lanka, as of 12:30 on 27 November 2024, highlights the presence of a cyclonic system that is currently a deep depression, expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm within the next 12 hours. Located approximately 130 km east-southeast of Trincomalee, the system is moving north-northwestward at 13 km/h, with its path set to skirt the eastern and northern coasts of Sri Lanka before heading towards Tamil Nadu, India. Wind speeds are currently ranging from 55-65 km/h, with gusts reaching 75 km/h, and are likely to increase to 65-75 km/h, gusting up to 85 km/h later today. Sea conditions are very rough to high along the Sri Lankan coast, and fishermen are strongly advised to avoid venturing into the sea.
In terms of rainfall, the past 24 hours have seen significant amounts of precipitation, particularly in the Northern and Eastern Provinces. Rainfall totals have ranged from 160 mm to 311 mm, with the heaviest recorded in Ampara (311 mm), Kanakarayan Kulam (298 mm), and Mankulam (289.5 mm). Over the next 24 hours, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected, with up to 227 mm of rain forecast for the Northern, North-Central, and Eastern Provinces, especially in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, and Jaffna districts.
The risk of flash floods is elevated, with a moderate to high threat over the next six hours. Areas with saturated soils, such as Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, and Mannar, are at risk of surface runoff and flash flooding, particularly in low-lying regions near tanks and reservoirs like Iranamadu and Thannimurippu. The flash flood outlook for the next 24 hours indicates a high risk across the Northern, North-Central, and Eastern Provinces due to continuous rainfall and already saturated catchment areas. Key locations at risk include Kilinochchi East, downstream of Iranamadu Tank, Vavuniya (due to spillover from Kanakarayan Kulam), and Mullaitivu, where tanks like Muththuiyankaddu are contributing to flood risks.
Tank and reservoir conditions are concerning, particularly at Iranamadu Tank, which is rising rapidly due to inflows from Kanakarayan Kulam. Although it has not yet started spilling, it is expected to do so within 12-18 hours if rainfall continues. Other reservoirs, such as Thannimurippu and Muththuiyankaddu, are experiencing spillover, and Vavunikulam is also at risk of breaching, requiring emergency action. These conditions are contributing to the growing flood risks.
