Taiwan

Taiwan’s Quest to Upgrade Its Battle Readiness Continues to Evolve

In early May 2023, a U.S. delegation consisting of 25 defense contractors arrived in Taiwan for a security summit, aimed to increase interoperability between the U.S. and Taiwanese militaries. It marks the latest step toward Taiwan’s years-long efforts to strengthen its defense capabilities and pose credible deterrence to the Chinese military.

The military relationship between Taiwan and the U.S. expanded significantly during the Trump administration. Washington approved major arms sales, increased cooperation with the Taiwanese military, and conducted more naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait to emphasize the U.S. position on Taiwan. During the Biden administration, it was revealed that dozens of U.S. military personnel were training Taiwanese forces on the island since at least 2020, numbers which have increased since.

And while conscription was previously considered an outdated military policy characteristic of the Cold War, the war in Ukraine has reversed this notion. Taiwan’s attempted transition to Western-style volunteer force in previous years now appears far less credible in being able to realistically oppose the Chinese military, and Taiwan’s government has since reverted to upholding its military reserve system.

But though Taiwan’s 1.7 million reservists appear to form a formidable challenge to China’s roughly 2 million active military personnel, Taiwan’s forces largely exist only on paper. Its military currently only has 169,000 active military members and an estimated 300,000 combat-ready reservists, according to Wang Ting-yu of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

The Taiwanese government was therefore quick to explore increasing training times for reservists after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, and in December 2022 lengthened conscription from four months to one year, bringing praise from the U.S. By boosting pay and training, the Taiwanese government hopes to bolster its forces and bring it closer to South Korea’s 18-month compulsory military service.

But China’s population of 1.4 billion dwarfs Taiwan’s mere 23 million, meaning additional Taiwanese conscription initiatives are futile if China resorts to additional conscription as well. Taiwan’s $19 billion defense budget also pales in comparison to the $230 billion spent by Beijing.

Washington’s hypothetical efforts to resupply the relatively isolated island of Taiwan during a conflict would meanwhile prove far more difficult than the ongoing Western effort to assist Ukraine. While stockpiling weapons could partially negate this issue, a prolonged conflict or blockade of Taiwan by China would steadily diminish Taiwan’s ability to continue fighting.

With the inherent disadvantages of the Taiwanese armed forces and the unwillingness of even the U.S. to officially commit to the island’s defense, Taiwan’s government has explored increasing engagement with the private sphere to ensure its security. The May 2023 U.S. contractors’ visit was just part of Taiwan’s recent efforts to increase engagement with both domestic and foreign private military firms.

Before the breakout of conflict in Ukraine in 2022, Taiwan had taken incremental steps toward greater privatization in its defense sector, such as privatizing the state aircraft manufacturer Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation in 2014.

However, the war in Ukraine completely altered the Taiwanese government’s view of private war. Russian private military and security companies (PMSCs) have been active in Ukraine since 2014, while the Russian PMSC known as Wagner has played an essential part in the war and in Russian propagandaVarious Western and Russian PMSCs are also fighting in Ukraine, while Chinese civilian drones have been used to great effect by both sides.

The Taiwanese government has since taken significant steps in engaging with Taiwan’s private sector to increase drone production. But more notable are the proposed changes to the Private Security Services Act, which regulates PMSCs operating in Taiwan, early into the war. Taipei has various types of private services to consider, such as those providing security, consulting, and training services, intelligence gathering, logistics support, and cyber and maritime security.

Enoch Wu, a politician from Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party and a former special operations soldier, founded the security and civilian defense organization Forward Alliance in 2020. Alongside programs to treat injuries and respond to crises, Forward Alliance’s combat training programs expanded significantly following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. The number of Taiwanese private programs run by various companies “specializing in urban warfare and firearms training” has also increased since the start of the war, according to Voice of America.

In September 2022, Taiwanese entrepreneur Robert Tsao pledged to spend $100 million training 3 million soldiers over three years in the Kuma Academy (also known as the Black Bear Academy). While his claims are ambitious, Russian billionaire Yevgeny Prigozhin’s financing of Wagner has already played an integral role in the war in Ukraine, at the same time drastically increasing his stature in Russia and notoriety abroad.

Due to its own limited industry, any Taiwanese effort to promote greater military cooperation with the private sphere would require Western assistance. The U.S. scrapped its mutual defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979 to normalize relations with China but the Taiwan Relations Act enables the U.S. to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, and privatization could make it easier for the West to support the Taiwanese military. Alongside weapons deals, Western PMSCs like G4S have been active in Taiwan for more than two decades and could quickly expand their operations on the island.

Greater cooperation with Western PMSCs may not be able to help Taiwan repel a Chinese assault. But they could complement Taiwanese military efforts to create a volunteer force modeled on Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Force and advocated by former Taiwanese defense chief Admiral Lee Hsi-min. The U.S. has explored developing guerilla forces in the Baltic States to harass Russian forces if they were to invade, and growing the multiple private initiatives already underway in Taiwan could form a powerful guerilla network that could remain active even if Taiwan’s military is forced to stand down.

But committing to privatization has its own consequences for Taiwan. The role of Chinese PMSCs abroad has grown significantly over the last few years, with an estimated 20 to 40 Chinese active largely to guard Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure projects. However, China’s 7,000-plus PSMCs operating domestically “suggests ample opportunity for the future growth of internationally active” Chinese firms according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. And, while Chinese law prohibits them from using force abroad except for defense, Beijing’s assertion that Taiwan is part of China’s territory could erode legal and political barriers to using them.

In recent years, China has also deputized maritime militias of fishing boats to swarm parts of the South China Sea and establish control over certain areas. By collaborating with Chinese PMSCs, these militias could even avoid Taiwan and surround the Kinmen, Matsu, or uninhabited Pratas islands. Although these islands are claimed by Taiwan, they are geographically closer to China. This could be justified on the grounds of economic interests or security concerns. The use of these fishing militias to harass Taiwan could make up for significant underdevelopment in Chinese PMSC capabilities and help China to avoid using its official military forces.

The scale of cooperation between the Taiwanese government and private military actors is so far limited. But Taiwan’s manpower shortages and lack of official military and diplomatic ties have made the prospect of private military assistance far more attractive. The lack of international regulations sustaining Taiwan’s recent increased engagement with the private military sphere, however, will further encourage China to respond in kind.

Ukrainian oligarchs had turned to PMSCs to protect their assets in Ukraine after 2014, while Ukraine has come to heavily lean on foreign PMSCs to supplement the war effort. Wagner and other Russian PMSCs have meanwhile grown in importance to Russian military efforts in Ukraine as well. The growing power of PMSCs in Ukraine, as well as worldwide, suggests further military privatization of the dispute over Taiwan may be inevitable.

China’s Territorial Greed – Threat to World Peace?

Since 1980s, in the last four decades, China has recorded  spectacular growth in the industrial and economic front.  Several multinational companies have invested several billion dollar  in China to set up projects , which happened due to the imaginative and proactive policy of Government of China. Aided by  the investment and technology from multinational companies, China gained immensely. China is now well recognised as one of the world  economic  super power.

With the economic power , China is also expanding it’s military capability and it’s present  annual military budget is around 2030 billion USD.

Unfortunately, along with the economic and industrial growth, China’s territorial greed have also increased to an alarming level. . To achieve it’s territorial greed , China is using it’s military and economic power.  This is now causing concern  worldwide

Chinese leaders  appear to have such territorial greed  deep in their mindset and this is  now becoming more visible

Case study Tibet

In the 1950s, China forcibly occupied Tibet and massacred thousands of protesting Tibetans brutally.  In the last few decades after China’s unethical occupation of Tibet, China has been trying to destroy the Tibetan culture and traditional practices and brainwash the youth, as if Tibet is only an extended territory of China.  While China took over Tibet militarily, there was no  significant protest in the world and this encouraged China to move on with it’s territorial greed adventures.

Case study India

After this occupation of Tibet, in 1962, China waged a war against India and occupied thousands of kilometres of Indian territory, which it is continuing to hold under it’s control till now. India has around  3500 kilometre length of land in China border which China calls as disputed territory,  and wants to occupy.  Frequently, China has been trying to intrude into Indian territory and it is reported in the media that in the year 2020, large area  of Ladakh region has been taken over by the Chinese army. Further, not satisfied with so much occupation of Indian land , China now demands that Arunachal Pradesh in India  should be part of Tibet region , now occupied by China.

To conceal it’s territorial greed , China often talks about peace with India and mischievously says that  “India and China share far more common interest than differences”  and says that bilateral relations between both the countries should be strengthened. However, territorial greed of China is now too blatant to be concealed.

Case study – Taiwan

China claims that Taiwan should be part of China, which is thoroughly unjustified.  There was a civil war in China when the communists occupied most parts of China except the Taiwan region. It was forcible occupation by China. Under the circumstances, the ground reality is that while the Chinese leaders claim that Taiwan should be part of mainland China, certainly, the government of Taiwan can legitimately claim that mainland China should be part of Taiwan.

In it’s territorial greed to grab Taiwan, China is threatening to invade Taiwan at any moment. The recent news is that China has sent 38 war planes and 6 navy vessels to areas near Taiwan.

Case study – South China Sea:

Apart from the above  territorial greed acts of China , it is laying  claims on South China sea, Senkaku Island , which is creating tension with Philippines , Japan and other neighbouring countries.

 It is a matter of concern now that China is planning to have military installations in Co Co Island in Myanmar.

Economic domination:

Apart from such military  oriented aggressive tactics, China has effectively brought countries like Pakistan, North Korea under it’s control,  exploiting   the economic and other weakness of these countries.   Sri Lanka is also now facing a threat of going down under China’s grip  due to it’s excessive dependence on China  for infrastructure projects and the  consequent  debt burden ,  which has forced Sri Lanka to undergo the humiliation of handing over Hambantota port to China on 99 years lease. The fact is that Sri Lanka has now virtually no control over the activities of China in Hambantota port .

China – A threat to world peace :

While most countries in the world are concerned about the territorial greed of China, it is strange that China has offered to mediate between Ukraine and Russia to end the Ukraine war. This is like the devil quoting scripture

China emerging as an economic superpower in the world has resulted in a situation , where it competes with USA in economic super power status. USA is all the time trying to extend it’s influence over other countries in the world and now China too is trying to do the same.  But, the difference is that USA is extending  it’s influence without territorial greed and this is not so in the case of China.

It appears that ultimate result of China’s territorial greed  would inevitably result in disturbing peace in the world.  It appears that the ambition of Adolf Hitler and Chinese President do not seem to be different.

Views expressed in this article are the author’s own