By now, the most surprising thing about Donald Trump’s policies, according to Yuval Noah Harari, is that anyone is still surprised. In a sweeping critique published in the Financial Times, the acclaimed historian and author of Sapiens dismantles the idea that Trump is erratic or misunderstood. Instead, Harari argues, “his policies are so consistent, and his vision of the world so clearly defined, that by this stage only wilful self-deception can account for any surprise.”
In the essay, Harari contrasts two visions of the world: the liberal order, built on cooperation and shared human values, and what he calls the “Trumpian vision” — a return to raw power politics, zero-sum logic, and the fortress mentality of a pre-modern era.
The Liberal Order vs. the Fortress World
Harari lays out the liberal worldview succinctly: it sees the world as “a potentially win-win network of co-operation,” where “conflict is not inevitable” and where mutual benefits can be found through global institutions, shared knowledge, and universal values.
He highlights examples like public health, where “all humans abhor illness and have a common interest in preventing the spread of contagious diseases.” This rational, cooperative mindset underpinned the creation of bodies like the World Health Organization and the international exchange of medical research.
But Trump, Harari warns, sees none of that. “In the Trumpian vision… the world is seen as a zero-sum game in which every transaction involves winners and losers.” Ideas, people, goods — everything crossing borders is suspect. Global institutions are viewed not as safeguards, but conspiracies “to weaken some countries and strengthen others — or perhaps a plot to weaken all countries and benefit a sinister cosmopolitan elite.”
Peace Through Power, Not Justice
So, what does this vision lead to? A world of “fortresses,” as Harari puts it — one where nations isolate themselves behind “high financial, military, cultural and physical walls.”
This is not a bug but a feature of Trumpism, he says. “Trump’s ideal world is a mosaic of fortresses,” and while it “forgoes the potential of mutually beneficial co-operation,” he and like-minded populists claim it would lead to greater stability and peace.
But Harari isn’t buying it. “Thousands of years of history teach us that each fortress would probably want a bit more security, prosperity and territory for itself, at the expense of its neighbours.” In such a world, lacking shared values or international law, “how would rival fortresses resolve their disputes?”
Trump’s answer, Harari explains, is brutally simple: “The way to prevent conflicts is for the weak to do whatever the strong demand.” War, in this view, is not caused by aggression but by the refusal of the weak to surrender. “According to the Trumpian worldview, considerations of justice, morality and international law are irrelevant, and the only thing that matters in international relations is power.”
Blaming the Victim
This logic, Harari says, explains Trump’s shocking blame of Ukraine for Russia’s invasion. “Many people couldn’t understand how he could hold such a preposterous view,” he writes. But Trump isn’t duped — he just sees morality as irrelevant. “Since Ukraine is weaker than Russia, it should have surrendered… and since Ukraine refused to surrender, the war is its fault.”
The same mindset, Harari argues, drove Trump’s infamous plan to buy Greenland — and his not-so-subtle threat to take it by force. If Denmark refused, “and the US then invades and conquers Greenland by force, Denmark would bear sole responsibility for any violence and bloodshed.”
Empire, Not Alliances
In this fortress world, Harari warns, true cooperation dies, and imperialism returns. “Trump himself is very clear about his own imperial plans,” he writes. “He clearly wants vassals rather than allies.” He cites Denmark again, noting that despite its loyal support of the U.S. in conflicts like Afghanistan — where 44 Danish soldiers died — Trump offered no thanks, only demands.
The Arms Race Returns
A world of fortresses is not a safer world — it’s a militarized one. “Since no fortress can afford to be weak, all of them would be under enormous pressure to strengthen themselves militarily,” Harari writes. That means fewer resources for education or healthcare, and more for weapons. “The resulting arms races would decrease everyone’s prosperity without making anyone feel more secure.”
When the Strong Miscalculate
Harari poses a critical question to the logic of surrender: what if the “strong” misjudge their power? He recalls the U.S. misadventure in Vietnam, when it believed overwhelming force would bring North Vietnam to heel — only to be defeated. Or the outbreak of World War I, when “both Germany and Russia were convinced they would win the war by Christmas.”
Trump’s world, Harari argues, offers no answers when power fails to dictate terms — only bloodshed.
A 21st-Century Threat
But the stakes today are even higher. The Trumpian vision, Harari warns, ignores or outright denies the realities of climate change and artificial intelligence. “Without robust international co-operation, there is no way to deal with these global problems,” he writes. “Since Trump has no viable solution… his strategy is to simply deny their existence.”
A Post-Liberal World Disorder
For those still hoping Trumpism is a passing phase, Harari offers a grim reality check: “Following a decade of confusion and uncertainty, we now have a clear picture of the post-liberal world disorder.”
“The liberal vision of the world as a co-operative network is replaced by the vision of the world as a mosaic of fortresses,” he writes. “Walls are going up and drawbridges are raised.”
The short-term consequences? “Trade wars, arms races and imperial expansion.” The long-term outcome? “Global war, ecological collapse and out-of-control AI.”
And while Harari encourages outrage and resistance, he ends on a blunt note: “There is no longer any excuse for being surprised.”
