Turkey is fast becoming a cornerstone of European security strategy, as its burgeoning defense industry and strategic geography make it an indispensable NATO ally in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.
According to a recent Financial Times report, Ankara’s growing military and technological capabilities — exemplified by the successful deployment of a TB3 attack drone from the deck of the Turkish-built aircraft carrier TCG Anadolu — signal a dramatic resurgence of Turkish naval power not seen since the days of the Ottoman Empire.
“Just as we once ruled the seas, you as descendants of Barbaros Hayreddin, have today opened the doors to a new world,” declared Selçuk Bayraktar, chair of leading Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar and son-in-law of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The development comes as Turkey’s geopolitical importance to Europe grows sharply, partly due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.’s long-term commitment to NATO under Donald Trump’s influence and the escalating threat from an assertive Russia. A western diplomat described Turkey as “a country condemned to strategic significance.”
Despite mounting criticism over democratic backsliding — including the recent arrest of opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu — European powers are opting for pragmatism over principle. Turkey’s formidable military capabilities and control of Black Sea access routes make it a vital ally, especially as Russia continues to menace Ukraine and the broader region.
“European security cannot be thought of without Turkey,” Erdoğan recently declared, weeks after widespread protests over İmamoğlu’s detention. His remarks underscore Ankara’s ambition to turn military clout into political leverage — potentially to reopen long-frozen EU accession talks.
Turkey’s armed forces, numbering 355,000 active personnel, are NATO’s largest in Europe. Their experience in expeditionary missions, including in Libya and Somalia, and proven counter-insurgency expertise have drawn attention from Western officials. “The Turks know how to use force, and are not afraid to take casualties,” one Western security official told the Financial Times.
Turkey’s defense industry, meanwhile, is booming. Baykar’s drones were instrumental in Ukraine’s early resistance to Russia’s full-scale invasion, and the company has now entered a joint venture with Italian defense giant Leonardo, aiming to expand into Europe’s fast-growing drone market.
Other Turkish firms are also exporting extensively. State-owned STM and ASFAT are supplying warships to Ukraine, while companies like Repkon are helping boost Western artillery shell production. Deliveries of Turkey’s indigenous fifth-generation fighter jet, the Kaan, are expected to begin by 2028.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan — a former intelligence chief — has become a regular presence at EU and NATO meetings, signaling deeper engagement between Ankara and its Western allies. Turkey’s offer to host a trilateral summit in Istanbul with U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian leaders reflects Erdoğan’s unique positioning as a broker between East and West.
However, as the Financial Times notes, the relationship between Europe and Turkey remains fraught. EU officials are clear that the current strategic alignment does not imply a revival of accession talks, especially given Erdoğan’s continued consolidation of power.
Yet there is mutual dependency. Europe needs Turkey’s defense capabilities, particularly as it plans €800 billion in security spending. Turkey, in turn, needs European investment and markets to sustain its military-industrial momentum. “Turkey is trying to tell Europe: ‘Look at what we can do, and how well we can do it,’” said Tom Waldwyn of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The domestic-political dimension complicates this alignment. Even from jail, opposition leader İmamoğlu urged Germany to continue arms sales to Turkey, arguing national interest should trump political disputes. “Turkey is not just about Erdoğan,” he wrote on X. “Turkey is bigger than Erdoğan.”
As the war in Ukraine grinds on and European security reorients, Turkey’s military assertiveness and strategic weight make it both a critical partner and a geopolitical wildcard — one that Europe can neither fully embrace nor afford to ignore.
