Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has renewed his longstanding warning over the country’s rapidly falling birth rate, describing it as a serious national concern that could weaken Turkey’s future strength. Despite more than two decades of pro-family messaging and policy initiatives, the country’s fertility rate continues to decline, reflecting deep economic pressures and shifting social norms.
Erdogan has repeatedly criticised birth control, calling it a “betrayal,” and has urged Turkish citizens to have at least three or more children. He has also promoted a traditional family model in which men are seen as primary providers while women are encouraged to focus on domestic roles. In recent remarks, he again pressed families to consider having four or even five children, arguing that a larger population is essential for national resilience and long-term development.
However, official data shows that Turkey’s demographic trend continues to move in the opposite direction. The country’s total fertility rate has been falling for more than a decade and dropped to a record low of 1.48 in 2024, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 required to maintain population stability without immigration. The decline marks a sharp shift from its 2014 peak, when demographic growth was considerably stronger.
Economists and demographers attribute the downward trend to a combination of structural and social factors. Rising living costs, persistent inflation, and stagnant wages have made it increasingly difficult for families to afford housing, childcare, and basic necessities. At the same time, greater access to education and changing aspirations among younger generations, particularly women, have contributed to delayed marriages and smaller family sizes.
Public sentiment reflects these pressures. Many families say that while they understand government appeals for larger households, financial realities make it increasingly difficult to consider having more children. The gap between policy messaging and everyday economic conditions has become a growing point of tension in public debate.
The trend is not unique to Turkey, with several countries including South Korea and the United States also experiencing declining birth rates and ageing populations. Policymakers globally have raised concerns that shrinking populations could lead to labour shortages, increased pressure on pension systems, and slower economic growth over time.
In response, the Turkish government has intensified its pro-natalist agenda. Authorities have declared 2025 the “Year of the Family” and launched a broader initiative extending to 2035, described as a “Decade of Family and Population,” aimed at reversing the demographic decline and reinforcing traditional family structures across the country.
