US crude exports are projected to reach record levels in April as the ongoing war with Iran disrupts Middle Eastern oil supplies, prompting Asian buyers to turn to American sources, the Financial Times reports. Oil research group Kpler estimates that US shipments will rise nearly a third to 5.2 million barrels per day, up from 3.9 million b/d in March, while demand from Asia alone is expected to surge 82 percent to 2.5 million b/d.
According to Kpler, 68 empty tankers are currently en route to US ports, compared with 24 in the week before the war began on February 28, and an annual average of 27 tankers. Analyst Matt Smith described the movement as “an armada of tankers heading this way,” highlighting the United States’ emerging role as a global swing supplier. However, the rush for oil is also driving US crude prices higher, with West Texas Intermediate reaching a four-year high above $110 per barrel earlier this week, despite a fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.
The conflict has left Asia particularly vulnerable, as roughly 80 percent of oil and petroleum products transiting the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 were destined for China and neighboring countries. Iranian threats to shut the strait following Israeli attacks on Lebanon have further exacerbated supply concerns. Domestically, rising fuel costs pose a political challenge for President Donald Trump, who retook office in 2025 promising to halve energy prices. US petrol prices have risen above $4 per gallon, with diesel approaching $5.81 a gallon, prompting the administration to release over 170 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and relax pollution rules to ease costs.
Analysts warn that these measures may have unintended consequences, making US crude more attractive to foreign buyers desperate for supply. Susan Bell of research group Rystad noted that rising imports from Venezuela, where the US recently installed de facto control over the oil sector, are enabling greater exports of lighter domestic shale oil while US refineries process heavier foreign grades.
Political tensions are mounting as some lawmakers, including California Democrat Brad Sherman, call for a ban on US oil exports to stabilize domestic prices. While the Trump administration has so far rejected such a move, analysts caution that escalating war-related supply disruptions ahead of the November midterm elections could prompt a policy reversal, potentially reshaping the global energy market.
