More than half a century after the last American helicopters lifted off from Saigon, Vietnam’s military is still quietly preparing for the possibility of war with the United States. A leaked internal defence document indicates that, behind the public warmth of upgraded diplomatic ties, Hanoi continues to regard Washington as a belligerent power capable of launching an invasion if Vietnam refuses to fall into line with US strategic ambitions in Asia.
The assessment, prepared by Vietnam’s Ministry of Defence in 2024 and released this week by the human rights group Project88, lays out contingency plans for what it calls a potential “war of aggression” by the United States. Titled “The 2nd US Invasion Plan,” the document was compiled less than a year after Vietnam and the US elevated relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, the highest diplomatic status Hanoi has ever granted Washington. That upgrade, announced during President Joe Biden’s visit to Hanoi in September 2023, was widely hailed as a historic milestone in bilateral relations.
Yet the contents of the leaked plan tell a starkly different story. According to Project88, the document shows that Vietnam’s military planners remain deeply suspicious of US intentions and view America not as a balancing partner against China, but as an existential threat to the Communist Party’s grip on power. The plan repeatedly characterises the United States as “belligerent” and warns that Washington and its allies could “create a pretext” to justify military intervention against Vietnam.
The document argues that although the immediate risk of war is low, Vietnam must remain vigilant because of what it describes as America’s long-standing tendency to invade countries that “deviate from its orbit”. It highlights Vietnam’s long coastline and vast maritime domain as vulnerabilities that could be exploited by the superior firepower of the US Navy, particularly in the event of a US-led amphibious assault.
Project88 says it obtained the document from a reliable source and independently verified its existence, though it was unable to authenticate the full text. Previous leaks published by the group, including classified Communist Party directives, have later been cited by international media and Western governments, lending credibility to its claims. Ben Swanton, Project88’s co-director, said the plan reflected a broad consensus across Vietnam’s political and security institutions. “This isn’t a fringe or paranoid view,” he said. “It’s deeply embedded across different ministries.”
The leak undercuts years of US policy built on the assumption that Vietnam could eventually be drawn into a US-led effort to counter China’s rise. American officials and analysts have long portrayed Hanoi as a natural partner, bound by shared anxieties over Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea. The document instead suggests that Vietnam’s leadership sees Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy as a greater long-term danger than China itself.
At the heart of the plan is a sweeping analysis of US strategy in Asia since the Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia” in 2011. Vietnamese military planners argue that what began as a unilateral effort to rebalance US power has evolved into a collective Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at encircling China through alliances, forward-deployed forces, and economic pressure. The Biden administration’s version of this strategy is described as resting on four pillars: security, economics, politics, and diplomacy, all designed to preserve US hegemony.
The plan pays particular attention to the military dimension. It meticulously catalogues US assets in the region, from B-2 and B-52 bombers rotating through Guam and Diego Garcia, to surveillance drones in Okinawa and missile systems tested in the Philippines. It notes that roughly 65 per cent of US naval power is now concentrated under Pacific Fleet command and that aircraft carrier strike groups, nuclear submarines, cruisers, and destroyers are routinely deployed to deter China.
Vietnamese analysts conclude that these forces could just as easily be turned against Vietnam. The document outlines scenarios in which US and allied navies launch amphibious operations along Vietnam’s coast, supported by carrier groups, Marine brigades, strategic bombers, and allied forces. In its most alarming passages, it speculates that if such an invasion were to fail, Washington might escalate to the use of biochemical or even tactical nuclear weapons.
Beyond military threats, the plan frames US engagement with Vietnam as a Trojan horse for regime change. It claims Washington seeks to exploit cooperation on trade, defence, and humanitarian programmes to spread Western values on democracy, human rights, religion, and ethnicity, gradually undermining Vietnam’s socialist system. When those efforts fail, the document argues, the US could resort to diplomatic pressure, economic coercion, or outright military intervention.
This suspicion is not confined to the armed forces. Other classified Vietnamese security assessments obtained by Project88 describe US intelligence agencies as actively working to overthrow the Communist Party of Vietnam. These documents accuse Washington of conducting psychological warfare online, deploying malware and spyware, and using cultural and educational exchanges to recruit informants and destabilise the political system.
Vietnam’s leadership has taken these fears seriously enough to formalise them into policy. In 2020, the government approved a nationwide initiative known as the Project to Prevent and Deter Color Revolutions, aimed explicitly at stopping Western-backed uprisings of the kind seen in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Internal security reports describe “peaceful evolution” and “color revolutions” as long-term strategies led by the US and its allies to dismantle Vietnam’s socialist regime.
The leaked invasion plan places these domestic security measures in a broader geopolitical context. It argues that the US Indo-Pacific strategy is not about regional stability, but about maintaining dominance by militarising Asia, forging hostile blocs, and turning the region into a liberalised economic zone dependent on Western markets and weapons. From Hanoi’s perspective, the economic agenda promoted by Washington is not a partnership among equals, but a neo-colonial project designed to marginalise China and subordinate smaller states.
Notably, the document does not portray China as an existential threat. While it acknowledges disputes with Beijing, particularly in the South China Sea, China is framed as a rival rather than a force seeking regime change in Hanoi. The plan blames regional instability on the US, accusing it of exploiting tensions between China and its neighbours to expand its own influence.
This distinction is rooted in the Communist Party’s strategic doctrine, which classifies external actors into “partners” and “adversaries”. Under this framework, the most serious threats are those conspiring to wage wars of aggression or foment internal unrest. Viewed through that lens, the United States occupies the highest threat category, while China, despite maritime disputes, is seen as infringing on territorial interests rather than threatening the survival of the regime itself.
The plan also sheds light on Vietnam’s increasingly close coordination with Beijing on regime security. In 2023, during Xi Jinping’s visit to Hanoi, the two countries announced an intelligence-sharing partnership aimed at preventing color revolutions. According to Project88, this initiative was proposed by Vietnam, underscoring how closely Hanoi’s security thinking now aligns with Beijing’s.
For Washington, the implications are uncomfortable. For more than a decade, US officials have described Vietnam as a potential “swing state” in the rivalry with China, a country that could be nudged toward deeper alignment through trade, arms sales, and diplomatic engagement. Media coverage and think tank analysis have often echoed this optimism, portraying Vietnam as steadily drifting away from China and toward the US.
The leaked document challenges that narrative head-on. It suggests that while Hanoi welcomes economic ties and limited cooperation, it has no intention of joining an anti-China alliance and privately regards the US as its most dangerous adversary. Rather than balancing between great powers, Vietnam appears to have made a clear strategic choice to prioritise regime survival above all else.
Vietnam’s distrust of US intentions is rooted in history as much as ideology. The memory of American intervention, devastating bombing campaigns, chemical contamination, and a punishing post-war embargo remains vivid in the national consciousness. Vietnamese leaders have also watched US interventions in other countries that defied Washington’s preferences, reinforcing the belief that independence invites punishment.
At the same time, US policy has increasingly shifted toward open strategic competition with China, expanding military deployments, forming new security pacts such as AUKUS, and placing long-range missiles in Japan and the Philippines. From Hanoi’s vantage point, these moves heighten the risk of conflict and make Southeast Asia a potential battleground in a great-power struggle it wants no part of.
The 2nd US Invasion Plan offers an unusually candid window into how Vietnam’s military elite interprets this environment. It reveals a leadership deeply wary of American power, sceptical of US rhetoric, and determined to prepare for worst-case scenarios, even as diplomats shake hands and issue joint communiqués. The contrast between public diplomacy and private planning could hardly be sharper.
For the United States, the leak raises fundamental questions about the assumptions underpinning its Asia strategy. If Vietnam, often held up as a quiet success story of engagement, still sees Washington as an enemy, it suggests that trust remains far thinner than official statements imply. More than fifty years after the war, Vietnam may be open for business with America, but its generals are still planning for the day US warships return, not as visitors, but as invaders.
