Europe’s leading military powers, including the UK, France, Germany, and Nordic countries, are engaged in informal discussions to assume greater responsibility for continental defense, anticipating a potential shift away from U.S. support within NATO. These talks aim to develop a structured plan for a managed transition over the next five to ten years, as concerns grow over former U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to reduce American involvement in the transatlantic alliance.
According to European officials involved in the discussions, the plan seeks to gradually shift both financial and military burdens to European nations, ensuring stability should the U.S. decide to withdraw or scale back its commitments. The proposal is expected to include firm commitments on increasing European defense spending and enhancing military capabilities. European leaders hope to present the plan to Washington ahead of NATO’s annual summit in The Hague this June.
The Financial Times, which first reported on these discussions, noted that European officials fear a sudden U.S. disengagement could leave the continent vulnerable. While American diplomats have reassured European allies that the U.S. remains committed to NATO, concerns persist over the unpredictability of future U.S. policy. Some European capitals are hesitant to engage in burden-sharing talks, fearing they might inadvertently encourage a faster American withdrawal. Others are skeptical that any agreement reached with Washington would be honored in the long term.
Currently, the U.S. provides indispensable military assets, including its nuclear deterrent, advanced military capabilities, and a network of bases with approximately 80,000 troops stationed across Europe. While European nations have ramped up defense spending since Trump’s election, analysts estimate that it could take up to a decade of sustained investment to replace most U.S. military competencies, excluding nuclear deterrence.
“Increasing spending is the only viable strategy—burden-sharing is key,” one European official said. “The scale of the task is overwhelming, but we must start somewhere.”
The push for greater European military self-reliance has been reinforced by ongoing discussions, led primarily by the UK and France, on forming a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine in its war against Russia. These talks, involving more than a dozen European defense powers, notably exclude the U.S. and serve as a test case for European-led security initiatives.
Despite the challenges, NATO officials emphasize that restructuring the alliance without the U.S. would be far simpler than creating an entirely new military framework. The existing structure already accommodates key defense players, such as the UK and other Atlantic naval powers, the Nordics for northern Europe, and Turkey for southeastern defense.
“Even without the United States, NATO provides a structure for security cooperation in Europe,” said Marion Messmer, a senior research fellow at Chatham House. “There are elements that would need to be replaced, but NATO already offers a framework that European nations are familiar with.”
