US voters will decide control of Congress and 36 state governorships on November 3, in elections that will determine the balance of power for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term.
Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress. Democrats need to gain four seats to take control of the House of Representatives, while they need a net gain of four Senate seats to regain the upper chamber.
The House is particularly exposed because all 435 seats are contested every two years. Republicans currently hold 219 seats to the Democrats’ 214, with two vacancies, leaving the governing party with only a small margin. Two special elections are pending in Florida’s 20th District and Texas’ 23rd District following resignations in 2026.
The historical record also provides context for the House contest. Since the Second World War, the party occupying the White House has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterm elections, with an average loss of about 27 seats. The 2022 midterms were an exception to that broader pattern, with Democrats under then-President Joe Biden suffering a comparatively small reduction in their House representation.
Control of the House would have significant consequences for the administration’s ability to advance legislation and budgets, while the chamber’s committees can conduct investigations and oversight of the executive branch.
The Senate presents a different electoral map. Republicans currently hold 53 seats to the Democrats’ 47. Thirty-five Senate seats are being renewed in November, including two special elections in Florida and Ohio, and several contests are taking place in states that Trump carried in the 2024 presidential election.
Unlike the House, the Senate does not always follow the same electoral pattern as the lower chamber. In 2018, for example, Republicans gained Senate seats while losing control of the House. Democrats are also defending Senate seats in Georgia and Michigan, two states that Trump won in 2024.
The Senate has a distinct constitutional role in confirming federal judges and senior officials, making its party balance an important factor in the administration’s ability to fill key positions.
The elections extend beyond Washington. Governors will be chosen in 36 of the 50 states, with the current national balance standing at 23 Democratic governors and 27 Republican governors. Of the governorships being contested, 18 are currently held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans.
State elections can have a direct effect on issues including abortion, voting rules, immigration and education. State legislatures and local offices, including mayors, school boards and prosecutors, will also be contested in many states, shaping decisions on taxation, schools, policing and other public services.
The political map of the states has also shifted during previous midterm cycles. Republicans expanded their control of state governments in 2010 and 2014, while Democrats regained several important governorships in 2018, including Michigan, Kansas and Maine.
The 2026 elections are also taking place after a series of congressional redistricting battles. New House districts are being used in nine states, including Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah. The changes affect roughly 10 per cent of the US electorate, while a Supreme Court ruling has required Missouri to continue using its 2024 congressional map rather than a newly drawn Republican-backed map.
The November vote will therefore determine not only the party balance in Congress but also the distribution of political power across state governments, with consequences for federal legislation, executive oversight and state-level policy for the remainder of Trump’s term.
