by Our Defence Affairs Editor
The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025 presents a stark yet predictable analysis of the evolving nature of terrorism worldwide. With a reported 13% decline in deaths and a 3% drop in incidents, the surface-level statistics suggest progress. However, the reality beneath these numbers is far more complex, shaped by global power struggles, economic interests, and the ever-adaptable strategies of state and non-state actors. Terrorism is not merely a threat; it is a currency—traded by governments, intelligence agencies, and corporate entities to maintain control, justify interventions, and reallocate global influence.
The GTI identifies the Sahel region as the new epicentre of global terrorism, with Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger witnessing a surge in jihadist attacks. These countries now account for over 43% of global terrorism deaths, underscoring how Western military failures and regional instability have fueled a power vacuum. France’s withdrawal from the region after decades of military involvement has only emboldened groups like JNIM and IS-affiliated factions, allowing them to expand unchecked. The growing influence of Russia and China in these regions suggests a recalibration of global power, where security partnerships are dictated by strategic interest rather than human rights or stability.
South Asia remains another focal point of terrorism, with Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India among the hardest-hit nations. Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government has failed to curb the resurgence of IS-KP, with attacks increasing by over 20% compared to the previous year. Pakistan continues its dual role as both a victim and a sponsor of terrorism, with groups like the TTP operating in a grey zone of state control and insurgent autonomy. India, meanwhile, grapples with both external threats and rising domestic extremism, further complicating an already volatile security landscape. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, while experiencing fewer high-profile attacks, have weaponised counterterrorism laws to suppress political dissent under the guise of national security.
The Hidden Economics of Terrorism
The financial mechanisms sustaining terrorism remain as potent as ever. The GTI reports that over $100 billion flows through illicit channels annually, funding everything from weapons procurement to recruitment campaigns. Terrorist groups have evolved beyond traditional insurgency tactics, now operating as hybrid organisations engaging in drug trafficking, illegal mining, and human smuggling. The Sahel’s gold mines, for instance, have become lucrative revenue sources for jihadist groups, while Afghanistan’s narcotics trade continues to bankroll Taliban operations.
But terrorism financing is not a one-sided equation. Counterterrorism itself is a billion-dollar industry, with defense contractors, intelligence agencies, and private security firms all profiting from perpetual conflict. Western arms manufacturers continue to supply regimes that sponsor extremism, while global financial institutions facilitate the laundering of illicit funds under the guise of trade and investment. The counterterrorism-industrial complex thrives on the persistence of terrorism, making genuine eradication efforts more performative than effective.
State-Sponsored Chaos: The Role of Intelligence Agencies
Perhaps the most controversial revelation of the GTI is the increasing reliance on criminal proxies and intelligence-backed operatives to conduct espionage and destabilisation efforts under the cover of terrorism. The UK’s recent espionage trial, which exposed a network of Russian spies masquerading as criminal gangs, underscores how terrorism is often a smokescreen for covert operations.
In South Asia, Pakistan’s ISI has long been accused of cultivating jihadist groups as strategic assets, allowing them to operate freely while maintaining plausible deniability. India’s counterterrorism efforts, while robust, have also faced scrutiny for their selective application, often targeting political opponents under the pretext of national security. The blurred lines between state-sanctioned counterterrorism and politically motivated suppression raise serious questions about the authenticity of global terrorism narratives.
The Weaponisation of AI in Counterterrorism
The GTI highlights the increasing role of AI-driven predictive analysis in counterterrorism, but this technological shift presents alarming ethical concerns. More than 36% of terrorist attacks in 2024 were not claimed by any group, making attribution a highly speculative process. Intelligence agencies now rely on machine learning models to determine responsibility, effectively allowing algorithms to shape military responses, economic sanctions, and foreign policy decisions.
This raises fundamental questions: Are these AI-driven attributions being manipulated to fit pre-existing geopolitical agendas? Is the push towards algorithmic counterterrorism a means of bypassing accountability? If AI determines that an attack in Afghanistan bears the hallmarks of an IS-KP operation, does that justify a drone strike without human verification? The potential for misuse is staggering, turning counterterrorism into a digital-age witch hunt with no room for transparency.
Terrorism as a Geopolitical Lever
The GTI inadvertently exposes the most uncomfortable truth: terrorism is not an existential threat to powerful nations; it is a tool of influence. The US, Russia, China, and other major players selectively engage in counterterrorism efforts when it aligns with their strategic goals, while turning a blind eye when it does not. The West’s military withdrawal from Afghanistan was framed as an end to an unwinnable war, yet covert drone strikes and intelligence operations persist, ensuring that instability remains a justification for future intervention.
Similarly, Russia’s counterterrorism efforts have been overshadowed by its war in Ukraine, where its resources have been redirected from anti-terror operations in Africa and the Middle East. Meanwhile, China’s counterterrorism rhetoric is increasingly being used to justify repression in Xinjiang, branding entire ethnic groups as security threats to legitimise mass surveillance and forced detentions.
The Perpetual Cycle of Manufactured Crisis
The Global Terrorism Index 2025, for all its data and analysis, ultimately serves as both a report and a distraction. By focusing on numerical trends and regional hotspots, it diverts attention from the underlying geopolitical and economic interests that sustain terrorism as a global phenomenon. The question is not how to defeat terrorism, but whether the world’s most powerful entities even want to. The evidence suggests that terrorism is far too valuable a commodity—used to justify wars, expand surveillance states, suppress dissent, and maintain economic dominance. Until this fundamental reality is acknowledged, the cycle will continue, with new enemies, new battlefields, and the same old game of domination, manipulation, and endless conflict repeating itself under different banners.
