The issue of who will succeed Xi Jinping, China’s paramount leader, is a subject shrouded in secrecy and delicate maneuvering. As Xi enters the midpoint of his third term, questions about his eventual departure or handover of power are becoming more urgent. Despite Xi’s apparent consolidation of power, the question of succession remains a critical and unspoken dilemma within China’s political sphere. While the Communist Party of China under Xi’s leadership has been remarkably stable, this stability is increasingly under the shadow of succession uncertainty.
In China, political transitions are far from transparent, unlike in Western democracies where peaceful leadership transitions are commonplace. Xi, who has maintained control over the Communist Party since 2012, has crushed any potential opposition, and his intention to remain in power indefinitely seems clear. However, as Joseph Torigian, a scholar of Chinese and Russian politics, notes, even Xi must confront the age-old dilemma of succession, which has plagued Chinese leaders since Mao Zedong. As Torigian explains, this dilemma is rooted in the need to ensure the regime’s survival, the leader’s legacy, and the safety of the ruling elite.
According to Financial Times writers Edward White in Shanghai and Joe Leahy in Beijing, Xi’s leadership has left no obvious successor, an issue exacerbated by his departure from the post-Deng Xiaoping collective leadership model. In the past, China’s leaders were often paired with a prominent deputy, such as the relationship between Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. Xi, however, has effectively eliminated this structure, leaving no clear “number two.” This has led to increasing speculation within China and abroad about how the transition will take place when the time comes.
As Xi enters his 71st year and prepares for a likely fourth term, there is mounting concern about the future of China’s leadership. While senior party officials, such as Li Cheng from the University of Hong Kong, believe Xi may be preparing for succession behind the scenes, the question remains as to when and how this transition will unfold. Given Xi’s track record of centralizing power and sidelining rivals, those close to the party—like senior officials and diplomats—are looking for signs of who might eventually step up to lead.
Though Xi has decimated his political rivals over the years, particularly through his anti-corruption campaign, the fear is that the current system lacks sufficient preparation for his exit. Without a clear successor, China’s political structure could face a crisis should Xi unexpectedly step down or face health issues, a risk highlighted by the sudden death of Premier Li Keqiang in 2023. The concern is that in such a case, China might experience political instability similar to the power struggles that followed the death of Soviet leaders, as Frank Pieke, a scholar on Chinese politics, suggests.
The article by White and Leahy delves into the delicate web of power within the Politburo Standing Committee and beyond, as they analyze the power plays and strategies employed by Xi’s closest allies. Figures such as Cai Qi, the director of the General Office of the Central Committee, have been seen as potential kingmakers, and Zhang Youxia, a senior military leader, may play a pivotal role should a sudden succession crisis arise. However, the lack of transparency in China’s leadership selection process complicates predictions, with experts relying on subtle clues such as official party rhetoric and the movements of senior officials to understand the trajectory of China’s political future.
As Xi’s leadership enters its third term, the question of succession remains one of the most pressing and uncertain issues facing the country. Despite Xi’s complete domination of the party and state apparatus, he still faces the challenge of ensuring a smooth transition of power when his time comes. As noted in the Financial Times, while Xi has consolidated his power through purges and strategic alliances, the absence of a clear successor raises significant questions about the future of China’s political stability and its leadership transition process.
