China’s marriage rate has plummeted to its lowest level in more than four decades, with just 6.1 million couples marrying in 2024. This marks a 20% drop from the 7.7 million marriages the previous year, according to new government figures reported by The Times, UK. This steep decline in marriages is a major concern for China, where a low birth rate is increasingly seen as a threat to the country’s long-term economic stability. In fact, the number of newlyweds last year was less than half of what it was in 2013, when 13.5 million marriages were recorded.
The number of divorces, meanwhile, has slightly increased by 1.1%, reaching 2.82 million in 2024. While marriage numbers have decreased dramatically, the rise in divorces indicates ongoing relationship challenges in Chinese society.
This decline in marriages coincides with a continued decline in China’s overall population, which shrank for the third consecutive year in 2024. Although the number of births increased slightly due to the belief that the Year of the Dragon brings good luck, it was still the second-lowest number of births in the country since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, expressed concern over the unprecedented nature of the decline, noting that even the Covid-19 pandemic only caused a 12.2% decrease in marriages in 2020. This ongoing fall in marriages has experts worried about China’s future, as it is expected to contribute to an even lower birth rate. In China, local governments often require a marriage certificate to register a birth, meaning that unmarried couples are less likely to have children compared to Western countries where births outside of marriage are more common.
Yi Fuxian warned that if this trend continues, it could “ruin the Chinese government’s political and economic ambitions.” He called this demographic shift China’s “Achilles’ heel,” with the falling marriage rate and birth rate worsening the country’s already critical demographic problems. These problems mirror trends seen in other countries, including South Korea, Japan, and some Western nations, where low marriage and birth rates lead to shrinking populations and labor shortages, which in turn strain economies and social security systems.
Despite government efforts to address the issue, such as President Xi’s pro-family campaign and a draft law that makes marriage registration easier but makes divorce harder, the trend continues. The government’s efforts have been ineffective at reversing the demographic decline, and the long-term outlook remains concerning.
Several factors contribute to the drop in marriages. First, the rising affluence of urban middle-class populations, who tend to have fewer children than poorer, rural populations, is a significant cause. This trend has been exacerbated by the legacy of the one-child policy, which limited the population growth and contributed to a demographic imbalance. The policy reduced the number of women of childbearing age and fostered a generation of women who, despite having higher levels of education and career prospects, are less inclined to follow the traditional marriage and childrearing model.
Additionally, the rising youth unemployment rate, which stood at 15.7% for 16 to 24-year-olds in December 2024, has made young people hesitant to marry. The country’s economic instability, including falling wages, a crisis in the property market, and rising education and childcare costs, has further discouraged couples from settling down and starting families. The pressure of financial insecurity, along with the growing challenges of urban living, has made it more difficult for young people to take on the responsibilities of marriage and raising children.
This demographic decline, if left unaddressed, poses serious challenges for China’s future, particularly regarding its economic health and social systems, where fewer working-age individuals will be left to support an aging population. The government will need to find ways to encourage marriage and birth rates if it hopes to avoid long-term consequences for the country’s social and economic fabric.
