On October 26, 2025, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group originating from the Janjaweed militias, seized control of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur. This event marked the total loss of authority by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) over the Darfur region and completed the RSF’s capture of all five Darfur state capitals. The fall of El Fasher, a strategic city in a region rich in oil, gold, and other minerals, consolidates the RSF’s dominion over an area roughly the size of Spain that also serves as a key transport corridor to Sudan’s western neighbours. According to Sudanese authorities, the takeover resulted in the deaths of at least 2,000 people, adding to a catastrophic humanitarian crisis in which the United Nations estimates over 30 million people require urgent assistance, including 9.6 million displaced from their homes and nearly 15 million children struggling to survive.
In the days leading to the city’s capture, heavy shelling between October 22 and 26 caused numerous civilian casualties, including among humanitarian workers. In the aftermath, hundreds of detainees were taken while trying to flee, and with communications severed and mass displacement ongoing, the full casualty count remains unknown. The risk of sexual violence against women and girls in North Darfur is alarmingly high, and reports have emerged of RSF fighters reportedly executing civilians in Bara City, North Kordofan, which they recaptured on October 25, 2025. Control over Bara has repeatedly shifted between SAF and RSF due to its strategic position on the “Export Road,” a key supply route linking Khartoum, El-Obeid, and Darfur. SAF had regained the city on September 11, 2025, as part of an offensive to cut RSF supply lines, but RSF’s renewed attacks in late October reversed those gains, leaving the city once again under RSF occupation. The RSF has exacerbated the crisis further by blocking aid, intensifying starvation among civilians and forcing large numbers of people to seek refuge in towns like Tawila in North Darfur.
The violence has extended beyond Darfur, with deadly drone strikes hitting markets in north Darfur towns such as Kakabiya and Saraf Omra. Aid workers have been directly targeted, exemplified by the killing of five Sudanese Red Crescent volunteers during a food distribution in Bara on October 27. This incident echoes an earlier drone strike on October 17, 2025, in Mazroub, North Kordofan, which killed numerous civilians. The RSF’s military campaign is part of a longer-term political strategy, having declared a “parallel government” in Darfur on July 20, 2025-a move condemned as illegal by Sudan’s central authorities.
This conflict is an escalation of the civil war that erupted on April 15, 2023, between the SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF, commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). The two generals were formerly allies in the 2019 uprising that ousted Omar al-Bashir, but their partnership collapsed over disputes on integrating their forces and sharing political power. After more than two years of conflict, the SAF retains control of eastern, northern, and central Sudan, while the RSF holds nearly all of Darfur and large swathes of Kordofan, amounting to roughly 40 per cent of the country. El Fasher, the last Darfur capital held by the SAF, had endured an 18-month siege before its fall, which al-Burhan framed as a tactical withdrawal to protect civilians and prevent further destruction, vowing to recapture the territory. The human cost of the war is staggering, with a 2024 British study estimating at least 61,000 deaths in Khartoum State alone. The RSF’s brutal tactics in El Fasher appear deliberate, rooted in both military strategy and long-standing ethnic vendettas.
Sudan’s war now threatens to destabilise the entire Horn of Africa, the Sahel, and North Africa. Over four million refugees have fled to neighbouring countries like Chad and South Sudan, placing immense strain on already impoverished nations. The conflict has also attracted significant foreign interference, with strategic assets like the Port of Sudan and key transport routes becoming focal points for arms transfers and political meddling. The UAE-backed RSF receives weapons via Chad in violation of UN embargoes, seeking to control gold exports and secure access to the Red Sea. Conversely, the SAF is supported by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, with Egypt supplying arms partly to safeguard its interests concerning Nile water security. Any instability or a hostile regime in Sudan is a potential threat to Egypt’s access to the Nile’s resources. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia’s backing of SAF stems from broader regional and economic interests, particularly its desire to ensure stability in the Red Sea region and to help safeguard the Red Sea corridor. Further complicating the landscape, Russia’s Wagner Group has supplied drones to the SAF, while Iran has provided missile technology to the RSF. Peace talks in Jeddah and Addis Ababa have failed, and rising foreign interference continues to prolong the war. In a significant diplomatic move, Sudan filed a case against the UAE at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in March 2025, accusing it of complicity in international crimes, though the prospects for the case are dim given competing geopolitical interests.
The Sudan conflict is driven by resource greed and foreign geopolitical interests. The RSF’s control of gold mines in Darfur and Kordofan finances its operations and sustains its power, while foreign actors back rival sides to secure access to gold, Red Sea routes, and regional influence – prolonging the war with little concern for the Sudanese people. As Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group warns, “The RSF leadership doesn’t appear content with just western Sudan… As long as they continue to receive supplies, they seem prepared to expand the war eastward.” In response, the UN, African Union, and International Conference on the Great Lakes Region have urged stronger accountability, though enforcement remains weak. Immediate priorities include achieving a ceasefire, protecting civilians, and ensuring unhindered humanitarian access. Diplomatic pressure and mediation are urgently needed to end hostilities, but the involvement of states accused of fuelling the conflict raises serious questions about their ability to mediate in good faith. Ultimately, the international community must support accountability through investigations and sanctions, revive inclusive peace talks under AU-UN leadership, strengthen regional cooperation to curb the conflict’s spillover, and protect civil society.
