A new study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has found that European countries are rearming at a far faster pace than the United Kingdom, raising urgent questions about Britain’s preparedness in the face of a growing Russian threat. The think tank’s Military Balance report highlights significant gaps in British defense capabilities, including shortages of armored vehicles, ships, and ground-based air defense systems, at a time when Russia continues to expand its long-range strike capacity and modernize its forces.
Figures from the report show that Europe’s overall share of defense spending reached 21 percent last year, with Germany alone accounting for a quarter of all growth since 2024. Even if the UK accelerates its plan to raise defense spending to 3 percent of GDP — roughly £113 billion — by 2029, it will still trail Germany, which aims to reach a comparable level next year. Analysts note that Britain’s slower progress is not due to financial constraints; its budget deficit is lower than those of several European nations, suggesting that more aggressive investment in defense is possible.
Experts argue that the UK has been slower than continental neighbors not only in funding but also in decision-making. While Berlin is actively determining what to invest in, London is still debating overall spending levels. Senior IISS fellows warn that this hesitation leaves Britain vulnerable, particularly as Russia continues to field advanced weaponry capable of hitting targets across Europe, such as Geran-2 drones with a 2,000 km range. Russian defense expenditure fell in 2025 compared to the previous year, but analysts caution that the country’s ability to sustain its war in Ukraine and rebuild its forces remains strong, and its threat to Europe is expanding.
British defense leaders acknowledge the challenge. Defence Secretary John Healey expressed his hope that the war in Ukraine will end this year and emphasized Britain’s role in coalition efforts on the ground. Yet the Ministry of Defence faces a £28 billion shortfall over the next four years, and the government has yet to publish a detailed defense investment plan, leaving the domestic defense industry in a state of uncertainty. Analysts highlight that while the Royal Navy is developing highly capable systems, the number of platforms is limited, and the pace of modernization has not kept up with European peers.
The report underscores that Britain risks falling behind not only in equipment but also in military readiness and alliance standing. Civil servants and top military officers have warned that continued uncertainty over spending and slow rearmament could undermine the UK’s status within NATO, potentially relegating it to the lower tier of alliance members. While continental Europe moves toward greater autonomy and modernized forces, the UK is seen as preparing for a potential conflict decades away rather than addressing threats in the near term.
The study’s authors warn that Europe and NATO allies will face significant challenges in reaching targets for 2035, with many nations continuing to rely heavily on U.S. support. As the geopolitical landscape grows more volatile, with Russia retaining the ability to sustain its military operations and expand force structures, the report suggests that accelerated, strategic investment in defense capabilities is essential. Without it, Britain risks falling behind key partners in Europe and weakening its deterrent posture at a time when Russian aggression remains a pressing threat.
