The Middle East is teetering on the edge of a far wider conflict, the United Nations has warned, as escalating military exchanges between Iran, the United States and Israel ripple across the Gulf and beyond. In a stark address to the Human Rights Council, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk described a rapidly deteriorating situation in which civilians are bearing the brunt of intensifying violence, while global economic stability hangs in the balance.
More than three weeks after the initial strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, the conflict has expanded geographically and in intensity, engulfing countries far beyond the original theatre. Across Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, communities have faced waves of missile and drone attacks, many targeting military bases but also striking residential areas and critical infrastructure. Families marking Eid and Nowruz have done so under the shadow of air raid sirens, fear and uncertainty, with daily life disrupted by the constant threat of violence.
Iran has launched large numbers of drones and missiles in retaliation, targeting what it describes as strategic and military sites. However, the reality on the ground has been far more indiscriminate. Strikes and interceptions have resulted in civilian casualties, with dozens reported killed and many more injured. Essential infrastructure has also been hit, including ports, airports, water systems and energy facilities, further compounding the humanitarian crisis by disrupting access to basic services.
Türk warned that many of the attacks carried out by all sides raise serious concerns under international law. The targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure, as well as strikes where the harm to civilians appears disproportionate to any military objective, could constitute grave violations. The High Commissioner emphasised that such actions, if deliberate, may amount to war crimes, underscoring the urgent need for restraint and accountability.
The repercussions of the conflict are not confined to the Gulf. In Lebanon, the humanitarian situation has deteriorated sharply, with government figures reporting more than one thousand people killed in Israeli strikes over the past three weeks. Among the dead are dozens of women, children and medical workers, with entire families reportedly wiped out in attacks on residential buildings. At the same time, Iran and allied groups such as Hezbollah have continued to launch missiles and drones into Israel, causing further civilian casualties, damage to infrastructure and widespread displacement.
Inside Iran itself, the human toll is mounting. Airstrikes have affected all 31 provinces, forcing civilians to seek shelter amid relentless bombardment. According to Iranian authorities, approximately 1,400 civilians have been killed and more than 20,000 injured. The destruction has extended to homes, hospitals, schools, transport networks and cultural sites, painting a picture of a nation under siege. Compounding the crisis, Türk highlighted a parallel wave of internal repression, including arbitrary arrests, executions and widespread censorship, with internet access cut off for more than three weeks.
The conflict has also brought the world dangerously close to a potential nuclear crisis. Recent missile strikes near nuclear facilities in both Israel and Iran have heightened fears of catastrophic escalation. Türk warned that such developments indicate that states are “flirting with unmitigated catastrophe”, a stark reminder of how quickly the situation could spiral beyond control.
Beyond the immediate humanitarian consequences, the economic shockwaves are already being felt across the globe. Iran’s disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, has severely impacted global supply chains. Vital goods including fossil fuels, medicines, food and fertilisers are being delayed, driving up prices and threatening shortages.
International agencies have sounded the alarm over the broader implications. The World Food Programme has warned that as many as 45 million additional people could fall into acute hunger if the conflict continues. The impact is expected to be particularly severe in lower-income countries, especially in South Asia, where economies are less resilient to sudden price increases and supply disruptions.
Several governments have already begun implementing emergency measures to cope with the crisis. Bangladesh has shut universities and introduced fuel rationing, while the Philippines has declared a state of national energy emergency. The knock-on effects are also likely to be felt through reduced remittances from migrant workers in the Gulf, a lifeline for millions of families across developing nations.
Efforts to mitigate the disruption, including the release of strategic oil reserves and adjustments to sanctions, have so far had limited impact. Meanwhile, rising insurance premiums and marine fuel costs are pushing up prices globally, adding further strain to an already fragile economic environment. According to regional estimates, the conflict has already inflicted approximately 63 billion dollars in economic losses across the Arab world.
Türk stressed that the interconnected nature of the modern world means that the consequences of this conflict extend far beyond the immediate region. The risk of further escalation could trigger additional national, regional or even global crises, with devastating effects on civilians everywhere. He urged all states, particularly those with influence over the parties involved, to take immediate steps to bring the violence to an end.
The High Commissioner also issued a broader warning about the erosion of international norms. At a time when some powerful states are perceived to be weakening the multilateral system, he called on the global community to recommit to the principles of international law and the United Nations Charter. War, he cautioned, must not be allowed to return as a routine instrument of international relations.
As the conflict continues, Türk called on all parties to uphold their obligations under international humanitarian and human rights law. The protection of civilians must remain paramount, and attacks on civilian infrastructure must cease immediately. His message was clear and urgent: the path forward must be one of de-escalation, accountability and a renewed commitment to peace.
For millions of civilians across the Middle East and beyond, the stakes could not be higher. As bombs fall and economies falter, their calls for safety and stability grow louder. Whether the international community can respond in time to prevent a deeper catastrophe remains an open and pressing question.
