Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition has lost its parliamentary majority in Israel’s election, but neither the prime minister’s right-wing bloc nor the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot appears likely to secure the 61 seats required to form a government, according to preliminary projections reported by German newspaper Die Zeit. The result leaves Israel facing a period of complex political negotiations, with Arab parties emerging as potentially decisive participants in efforts to replace Netanyahu.
The election has produced a divided outcome for Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for a total of 19 years since 1996, with interruptions. His Likud party emerged as the strongest individual political force, outperforming expectations in some polls, but the wider right-wing bloc was projected to fall short of a governing majority. The opposition was collectively stronger than the incumbent coalition, although Eisenkot’s Yashar party trailed Likud. The final political balance remained uncertain as preliminary results emerged late on Tuesday.
In a separate report, Die Zeit described the election as a defining contest over Israel’s national identity, with voters divided over what it should mean to be Israeli. At Netanyahu’s Likud election gathering in Jerusalem, the initial projections produced neither celebration nor visible relief among supporters and journalists watching the results. The outcome reflected divisions that cut across conventional political and social boundaries, rather than a straightforward contest between left and right or Jewish and Arab citizens.
The increased participation of Arab voters was one of the election’s most significant developments. Arab parties secured a projected 18 seats, equivalent to about 15 per cent of the total, according to the Die Zeit account. Arab citizens make up approximately 20 per cent of Israel’s population, and their political representatives could now determine whether the opposition can assemble enough parliamentary support to remove Netanyahu.
The opposition faces difficult choices over whether to cooperate with Arab parties, either through a formal coalition or by securing their support for a minority government. Such an arrangement could initially be limited to making key personnel changes in the state apparatus. Some parties in Eisenkot’s bloc oppose cooperation with Arab political groups, while the right could portray such an agreement as a betrayal of the Jewish state. At the same time, pressure to prevent Netanyahu from remaining in office is likely to complicate the opposition’s calculations.
Netanyahu could also seek to retain power through a different political arrangement. One possibility would be a broad coalition in which Likud separates from ultra-Orthodox and far-right partners and approaches more conservative parties within the opposition. Such a government could be presented as a cross-party administration for a country facing serious challenges.
Die Zeit’s reports also highlighted the differences between Netanyahu and Eisenkot. Although Eisenkot has called for renewed fighting in Gaza and opposed a two-state solution, he has presented a more restrained public image. His son was killed in the Gaza war. Netanyahu, by contrast, repeatedly invoked national security threats during the campaign, including the prospect of an Iranian attack on Tel Aviv. Die Zeit reported that Netanyahu had circulated AI-generated images depicting a nuclear mushroom cloud over the city, framing the choice as one between himself and catastrophe.
The possibility of renewed military escalation remains a concern in the immediate post-election period. According to media reports cited by Die Zeit, Netanyahu pressed US President Donald Trump to launch another military strike against Iran before the election. Netanyahu also reportedly clashed with his own chief of staff, who considered the prime minister’s approach towards Iran too provocative. Die Zeit raised the possibility that a crisis could be used to strengthen the case for a national unity emergency government under Netanyahu’s leadership.
A change of government would not necessarily produce a fundamental shift in Israeli policy towards the Palestinians. However, Die Zeit argued that an administration in which far-right parties no longer dominated could take a different approach to radical settlers’ actions in the occupied West Bank. In Jerusalem’s Arab neighbourhood of Beit Safafa, local leader Musa Alian said the current government had placed excessive pressure on Arab communities and declared: “Bibi must go.”
