Renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have shaken Lebanon’s fragile stability, threatening to drag the country into sustained conflict long after the broader Iran war subsides. The violence, a direct spillover from U.S.-Israel operations against Iran, has left Beirut’s government weakened, undermined its credibility with Washington, and reignited fears that Hezbollah could again draw Lebanon into a full-scale war with Israel.
The conflict escalated rapidly after the U.S.-Israel air campaign killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In response, Hezbollah launched coordinated attacks on Israeli territory using missiles, rockets, and drones, signaling Tehran’s influence over the group’s military operations. Israel retaliated with massive airstrikes, including targeted campaigns against Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh, as well as ground operations in southern Lebanon. Approximately 570 Lebanese civilians have died, and more than 700,000 have been displaced from Hezbollah-controlled areas and southern Lebanon, according to the Lebanese Disaster Risk Management Unit.
Hezbollah’s renewed aggression comes despite significant setbacks over the past two years, including Israeli strikes that targeted the group’s arsenal and the collapse of the Iran-aligned Assad regime in Syria. Yet the group has maintained a formidable capability to strike Israel, forcing mass evacuations in northern Israel and disruptions in central cities, including Tel Aviv. Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–Quds Force (IRGC-QF) personnel remain in Lebanon, reportedly advising Hezbollah and operating some of its weapons systems. Israel recently killed five high-ranking IRGC-QF commanders in Beirut, seeking to degrade Iran’s influence over Hezbollah’s military operations. Other Iran-aligned militias in Iraq and the Houthi movement in Yemen have threatened retaliatory actions, though their involvement has remained limited.
The fighting has exposed deep political vulnerabilities in Beirut. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri have struggled to assert control over Hezbollah, which had previously pledged not to engage in Iran-directed attacks. Hezbollah’s decision to join the Iran war undermined these commitments, particularly in southern Lebanon, where the group retook positions previously handed to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) under the November 2024 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. The government’s reliance on Hezbollah’s assurances has been widely criticized by U.S. and Israeli officials, who view the group’s actions as controlled directly by Tehran rather than by Hezbollah’s political leadership.
In response to the escalation, Lebanon’s cabinet outlawed Hezbollah’s military and security wings and ordered the deportation of IRGC personnel. The LAF has begun arresting Hezbollah operatives, seizing weapons, and reclaiming strategic infrastructure, including the Beirut airport, port, and several border crossings. Lebanon’s Central Bank has also started restricting Hezbollah’s access to funds, although Iran reportedly continues to transfer financial support to the group. LAF commander General Rodolphe Haykal, however, has refused to deploy forces against Hezbollah while Israeli operations are ongoing, citing insufficient capacity to resist Israeli advances. This has allowed Hezbollah to reestablish positions near the Israeli border, further complicating Lebanese internal politics and eliciting criticism from U.S. officials.
Despite these internal measures, diplomatic efforts have remained fraught. President Aoun has sought direct talks with Israel, proposing ceasefire agreements, logistical assistance to disarm Hezbollah, and secure border arrangements. U.S. and Israeli officials, however, have expressed skepticism about Beirut’s commitment to disarm the group, preferring to allow Israel to continue its military campaign. According to experts, the offensive is intended to weaken Hezbollah sufficiently so that the LAF can implement long-term demilitarization and reduce Iran’s leverage in Lebanon.
The Syrian government, historically a critical influencer of Lebanese politics, has shifted in favor of Beirut’s efforts to curb Hezbollah. Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa has publicly supported the Lebanese government, deploying Syrian troops to prevent Hezbollah from using Syrian territory for strategic advantage. Coordinated communication between al-Sharaa, Aoun, and French President Emmanuel Macron reflects ongoing trilateral efforts to monitor and contain Hezbollah’s operations, potentially enhancing Lebanon’s long-term capacity to assert sovereignty over the group.
Military analysts, including experts from The Soufan Center, emphasize that Hezbollah’s missile and drone campaigns demonstrate a level of operational coordination with Iran that has persisted despite intense Israeli bombardment. Recent Iranian statements claim the launch of Kheibar Shekan missiles in coordination with “resistance forces” in Lebanon, underscoring Tehran’s continuing strategic command over Hezbollah’s actions. The group has explicitly framed its operations as part of a broader military campaign targeting Israeli towns from Kiryat Shmona to Nahariya, areas where residents had been advised to evacuate in advance of attacks.
The implications for Lebanon are profound. The renewed conflict has destabilized political institutions, challenged civilian governance, and threatened the fragile sectarian balance that has maintained relative stability since the 2024 ceasefire. Hezbollah’s alignment with Iran underscores the limits of Beirut’s authority and highlights the ongoing influence of regional powers on domestic Lebanese politics. As Israel continues its campaign, and with Iran’s backing shaping Hezbollah’s operational choices, Lebanon faces a protracted period of insecurity and political uncertainty.
Observers warn that the fighting could endure well beyond the broader Iran war, with Hezbollah likely maintaining military capabilities sufficient to pose repeated threats to Israel. The situation underscores the challenge of balancing internal Lebanese governance, U.S.-Israel strategic objectives, and regional Iranian influence. For now, Lebanon stands at a crossroads, caught between the pressures of external conflict and the urgent need to reclaim control over one of the most potent non-state actors in the Middle East.
