Upali Jayaweera, a second-tier leader of the JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna), rose to prominence in the party’s Central Committee after the assassination of Rohana Wijeweera. Following his arrest by the military, he confessed on March 6, 1990, at the Pallekele Army Camp. His statement spanned about 21 pages, and in one instance, he mentioned:
“On November 13, 1989, while travelling with comrades for a regional meeting, I saw on a TV set in a shop that our leader, comrade Rohana Wijeweera, had been arrested. I was shocked…”
November 13, 1989, marked the day the backbone of the JVP was broken. For Upali Jayaweera, seeing his beloved leader captured must have felt like an earthquake shaking the ground beneath him.
Exactly 35 years later, the JVP has created a political earthquake in Sri Lanka—a possibility Upali Jayaweera likely never imagined. But it has happened.
Who created this earthquake and tsunami?
The earthquake and tsunami were caused by Ranil Wickremesinghe, Basil Rajapaksa, and the Rajapaksa family.
The seeds of this tsunami were sown during the 2015 Yahapalana government. After Maithripala Sirisena became the common candidate for the UNP, won the presidential election, and forcibly took over the leadership of the SLFP, a chain of events unfolded. If Mahinda Rajapaksa had allowed Maithripala to assume SLFP leadership and retired from politics in 2015, this tsunami might have occurred then.
Appointing Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister, Maithripala enabled Ranil to systematically weaken the SLFP, reducing it to a shell of its former self. SLFP supporters, however, viewed Ranil as their greatest adversary and saw Maithripala as a traitor. Recognizing this resentment, Mahinda Rajapaksa organized an opposition force against both Ranil and Maithripala. Anti-Ranil and anti-UNP elements of the SLFP rallied around Mahinda. If Mahinda had refrained from forming the Pohottuwa party and allowed Maithripala to surrender the SLFP to Ranil, the JVP might have taken leadership of the 5.7 million voters left adrift in 2015. But Mahinda did not allow this to happen.
Instead, Mahinda became a hero of the anti-Ranil and anti-UNP forces. In the 2019 presidential election, Gotabaya Rajapaksa secured 6.9 million votes because Mahinda and the Rajapaksa family stood up against the political manipulation created by Ranil and Maithripala.
Gotabaya’s presidency in 2019 and Mahinda’s prime ministership in 2020 were largely based on promises to hold the perpetrators of the Central Bank bond scam and the Easter Sunday attacks accountable. However, when Gotabaya took his oath as president at the Ruwanweli Maha Seya, the crowd loudly booed then-Prime Minister Ranil, revealing their deep resentment.
Yet, neither Gotabaya, Mahinda, Basil, nor Namal understood the fury of the 6.9 million who had voted for them. During the 2022 Aragalaya (People’s Struggle), they handed over power to Ranil, ignoring the anger of their voter base. Their focus shifted to undermining Sajith Premadasa’s rising popularity to safeguard the Rajapaksa family and their government.
What if they had stepped aside and allowed Sajith to lead?
In that scenario, Sajith would have likely called for a snap general election. The SJB (Samagi Jana Balawegaya) would have secured a majority, making Pohottuwa the main opposition. The JVP would have increased its seats but remained a third force. If the Rajapaksas had fielded a popular Pohottuwa candidate instead of Ranil, the party could have maintained significant influence as the main opposition.
By handing the presidency to Ranil, the Rajapaksas replicated the 2015 Ranil-Maithripala political distortion. The 6.9 million who voted for Gotabaya could not tolerate this, as Ranil had once accused the Rajapaksas of bank robberies and enabling Muslim extremists involved in the Easter attacks. This betrayal led to the alienation of both Ranil and the Rajapaksa family.
Meanwhile, the JVP emerged as a significant force, taking advantage of the political vacuum left by the discredited opposition and the public’s disillusionment with Ranil’s economic policies. Ranil, in collaboration with media networks, propagated the narrative that he and Sajith might contest the 2024 presidential election together, further confusing the electorate.
A series of missteps
Ranil continued to distribute privileges, including bar licenses, to members of the Northern Province and the TNA, creating discontent. Despite Basil Rajapaksa’s attempts to extricate the government from Ranil’s influence, the Podujana Peramuna MPs remained tethered to Ranil’s benefits. Eventually, Basil suggested to Ranil that Parliament should be dissolved. If Ranil had dissolved Parliament at that time, the SJB would have won, the JVP would have emerged as the opposition, and the Podujana Peramuna could have maintained significant influence. However, Ranil refused, driven by his ambitions to become president and his animosity toward Sajith.
As this year’s presidential election approached, many MPs chose not to run, knowing that the political space had been ceded to the JVP. This wasn’t solely because Ranil and Basil had undermined the Podujana Peramuna and the SLFP, but also because anti-UNP and anti-SJB politics had been handed over to the JVP.
Ranil and Maithripala had already dismantled the SLFP in 2015. By 2020, the UNP was a shadow of its former self. By 2022, the Podujana Peramuna and the Rajapaksa family were in disarray. Ranil then attempted to weaken the SJB, but this effort failed.
A political tsunami
In this year’s general election, the JVP or National People’s Power secured 6,863,186 votes, closely mirroring the 6,853,690 votes the Podujana Peramuna received in the 2020 general election. This reflects the public’s dissatisfaction with the political distortions created by Ranil and Maithripala in 2019–2020, which resulted in the Gota tsunami. In 2024, the Ranil–Rajapaksa alliance has paved the way for an “Anura tsunami.”
Ultimately, by undermining Sajith, dismantling the Pohottuwa, and ceding opposition politics to the JVP, the Rajapaksa family’s short-sighted decisions have facilitated this political earthquake.
