Ukraine is grappling with a severe manpower crisis as four out of every five draftees reportedly flee military training centres, a senior MP in Kyiv has warned, leaving the country struggling to hold back Russian advances in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Roman Kostenko, secretary of Ukraine’s parliament security, defence, and intelligence committee, said the country is failing to create conditions that deter desertion, adding that “there will soon be as many people who have abandoned their units as there are in our army,” according to reporting by Times UK.
While early enthusiasm in 2022 saw long queues at recruitment centres, many of those first volunteers are now dead, wounded, or suffering from burnout. More than 280,000 cases of desertion or absence without leave have been recorded since the start of the invasion, with the prosecutor-general’s office noting that this year’s numbers exceed those of 2022–2024 combined. A record 21,000 cases were registered last month alone.
Although not all absences represent fleeing soldiers—some involve repeat offenders or missing-in-action cases—Ukraine faces the dual challenge of maintaining troop numbers while enforcing strict wartime laws. Desertion carries a prison sentence of up to 12 years, while going AWOL carries a maximum of ten years; however, only around 5 percent of cases are prosecuted, military analysts say.
Under martial law, nearly all mobilised men are required to remain in the army, and travel restrictions previously banned men aged 18 to 60 from leaving Ukraine. August reforms allowing men under 23 to travel abroad, however, have prompted a wave of departures, with approximately 100,000 young men leaving the country in the past three months, largely via Poland to Germany. The exodus has heightened tensions between Kyiv and Berlin, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urging President Zelensky to stop the flow of young men abroad. Polish officials have also called for curbs on benefits for male refugees of fighting age to encourage them to remain in Ukraine.
The manpower shortage comes as Russian forces threaten to capture key towns, including Pokrovsk, while continuing slow advances across multiple fronts. Overnight airstrikes on Sunday killed at least five civilians and targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of winter. Despite the crisis, morale-boosting measures continue, including a recent agreement in Paris for Ukraine to acquire up to 100 French Rafale fighter jets and drones, though deliveries are scheduled over the next decade.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has intensified crackdowns on opposition figures abroad, designating former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov as an “extremist and terrorist,” further complicating the geopolitical environment.
