Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has turned U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats into a political advantage, rallying nationalist sentiment and boosting her approval ratings above 80%, according to recent polling. As Mexico braces for sweeping U.S. tariffs and heightened tensions over migration and security, Sheinbaum has carefully navigated her relationship with Trump, securing his rare public praise while maintaining domestic support.
Earlier this month, Sheinbaum addressed a massive rally in Mexico City, where hundreds of thousands gathered outside the National Palace to celebrate a temporary pause on Trump’s planned 25% tariffs on Mexican exports. Supporters chanted, “You are not alone!”, as she declared Mexico’s commitment to dialogue and respect in its relationship with the United States.
A Strategic Approach to Trump’s Pressure
Trump, who has often criticized foreign leaders, has taken an unexpectedly cordial approach toward Sheinbaum. He has described her as a “wonderful woman” and thanked her for her “hard work and co-operation.” This contrasts sharply with his hostile stance toward Canada’s leadership, where he has threatened counter-tariffs and even referred to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “governor.”
Despite Trump’s threats to double tariffs on steel and aluminum for Mexico, Sheinbaum has avoided direct criticism and instead pursued a calculated strategy—offering concessions where necessary while avoiding outright confrontation. She has also rejected Trump’s attempt to rename the Gulf of Mexico, pushing back on symbolic but politically charged issues.
Her measured approach has won her admiration both domestically and internationally, even as some critics express concerns over her broader agenda, including efforts to reassert state control over the economy and weaken independent institutions such as the judiciary.
How Sheinbaum is Using Trump to Her Advantage
The Financial Times notes that Sheinbaum has executed a kind of political “ju-jitsu”—using Trump’s pressure to her advantage. By appearing strong and decisive against an external threat, she has not only boosted her own image but also unified a divided political landscape. Even her political opponents and business leaders—who have criticized her economic policies—have acknowledged her ability to navigate the crisis effectively.
“Sheinbaum is strengthened versus her party, more empowered for her domestic agenda,” said Carlos Ramírez, a political consultant at Integralia. “Trump is a godsend for justifying an underperforming economy.”
Concessions to the U.S.: Migration and Security Policy Shifts
In response to Trump’s demands, Sheinbaum has made significant security and migration policy shifts. She has:
- Deployed 10,000 National Guard troops to Mexico’s northern border.
- Increased tariffs on China, aligning Mexico’s trade policy closer to U.S. interests.
- Overturned normal extradition procedures, delivering a record number of cartel operatives to the U.S., including fugitives wanted for decades.
These moves mark a clear shift from her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) “hugs, not bullets” security approach. Sheinbaum’s willingness to take a harder line against cartels suggests she is willing to adapt policies to maintain stability in Mexico’s relationship with the U.S.
However, analysts warn that Trump’s demands may become increasingly difficult to accommodate. He has accused the Mexican government of having an “intolerable alliance” with cartels, and speculation is growing that he may eventually push for high-profile arrests of officials within Sheinbaum’s political coalition.
A Temporary Win or a Long-Term Strategy?
Despite her current success in managing Trump’s pressure, Sheinbaum has not secured a long-term economic concession. Mexico has ended up with nearly the same tariff deal as Canada, with 25% levies on about half of its exports and the remaining set to face tariffs starting April 2—unless Trump grants another delay.
The real test will be whether Trump’s apparent personal respect for Sheinbaum translates into substantive benefits for Mexico beyond social media praise and warm remarks.
