Britain’s emerging debate over rejoining the European Union is colliding with a fundamental change in the bloc it left a decade ago, as European governments adopt more protectionist economic policies, expand defence cooperation and accommodate a growing far-right presence in politics. Although Andy Burnham has opened the door to renewed British membership, the political and institutional conditions for rejoining have changed considerably since the 2016 Brexit referendum, according to an analysis published by Observer UK.
The shift was apparent last week when the prime minister and other British officials visited Berlin and Strasbourg to promote a reset in relations, receiving a warm welcome from European officials. David McAllister, a senior German member of the European Parliament and chair of its foreign affairs committee, said: “I don’t think many people realise how much the British are still missed in Brussels.” Yet the goodwill towards Britain does not mean that the European Union would simply resume its pre-Brexit relationship with the UK.
“The fundamental identity, the DNA, the nature of the EU, over the course of the last 10 years has changed,” said Mujtaba Rahman, a managing director at the Eurasia Group consultancy. “I don’t think that’s something that is particularly well understood across the UK.”
One of the most visible changes has been the growth of the far right. At the time of the Brexit referendum, the European Parliament had about 80 hard-right members; that number has risen to 196. Their influence over legislation has increased, while traditionally Eurosceptic parties have entered governing coalitions in several European countries. By the time Burnham settles his position on EU membership and presents it to voters at a general election, France could be years into a presidency led by Marine Le Pen, the French far-right leader.
The EU has also moved towards closer cooperation on defence, an area where British officials were previously vigorous opponents of formal integration. Russia’s war in Ukraine has accelerated the shift. McAllister has described the emerging project as “a fully fledged European defence union”. Britain’s own efforts to strengthen its defences, alongside concerns about the future of the Nato alliance, could make closer cooperation with European partners more attractive to the UK government.
Economic policy has undergone a similarly significant transformation. Protectionism, industrial strategy and shared borrowing have become more prominent in Brussels, reflecting a growing willingness to use collective resources to address common challenges. Rahman said successive Conservative and Labour governments had historically opposed such approaches. The EU has increasingly embraced French President Emmanuel Macron’s concept of “strategic autonomy”, which seeks to strengthen Europe’s capacity to act independently in strategic areas.
“The EU has become a lot more French,” Rahman said. Sandro Gozi, a member of the European Parliament who chairs its delegation for regular meetings with Westminster lawmakers, said the bloc was now “not scared” to respond to external threats through closer cooperation. The issuance of tens of billions of euros in EU bonds to finance the Covid recovery programme was, he said, “absolutely a sign of a deeper integration”.
These developments could create opportunities for closer British engagement, particularly as European governments seek to reverse industrial decline. Almost 200,000 German businesses closed last year, the highest number since the financial crisis, according to the source. In response to mounting industrial pressures, Brussels has intensified efforts to promote European production, encourage companies to buy European goods and subsidise strategically important industries. Gozi said these priorities were not far removed from those of the current British prime minister.
China, however, could expose significant differences between London and Brussels. The EU has introduced defensive trade measures targeting key Chinese industries, including electric vehicles, amid concerns about competition from heavily subsidised manufacturing. Rahman said the British government occupied a different position, describing its approach as one that combined tough rhetoric with openness to business. British diplomats could therefore find limited support in Brussels for a more liberal approach to Chinese investment and trade, particularly among officials concerned about the loss of high-value manufacturing to China.
The EU’s economic centre of gravity is also shifting eastwards. Poland has become the bloc’s sixth-largest economy, while Romania is approaching the top 10. Poland’s gross domestic product per capita, adjusted for purchasing power, has reached about 85% of the UK level, narrowing a gap that once helped define the economic relationship between western and eastern Europe.
Further enlargement could accelerate that shift. Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro and Albania are seeking to join the EU by the end of the decade, potentially expanding the bloc to 31 countries. Ukraine’s accession would present substantial challenges for the Common Agricultural Policy, the EU’s largest subsidy programme. Under the current system, Ukraine would qualify for an estimated €96.5bn over a seven-year budget cycle, potentially displacing France as the largest recipient of agricultural funding. EU officials acknowledge that the rules would have to change.
Migration policy has also moved closer to positions associated with Brexit. The EU had 315km of border fences in 2014, but by 2022, the latest year for which official data was cited, the figure had risen to more than 2,000km. Some countries have also reintroduced border checks within the Schengen zone, even as anti-immigration politics have gained influence across the bloc.
Despite these changes, European officials have indicated that practical obstacles to British membership, including the euro and Schengen, might be negotiable if the UK demonstrated a sustained commitment. Rahman said EU officials were “pragmatic” and could prioritise the strategic benefits of closer relations, provided fundamental conditions were respected.
The principal difficulty may be political trust. “What the European Union would expect is a sincere interest. And one thing is also clear: nobody wants to experience anything like a second Brexit,” McAllister said. “You left us, not the other way around.”
For now, Burnham’s apparent shift towards Europe has attracted limited attention in Brussels, where other priorities compete for political attention. One EU official told Observer UK that the issue was “far from our daily realities”. McAllister noted that relations with Britain mattered to both sides, but added that Brussels had many other priorities. A summit in November between Burnham and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen could bring the question into sharper focus.
