A Chinese geospatial intelligence company, MizarVision, has claimed it used artificial intelligence-driven analysis to track the movement patterns of US bombers operating over Iran by studying aerial refuelling missions. The findings, detailed in a report released earlier this month, focus on activities during Operation Epic Fury and highlight how indirect data sources may reveal sensitive operational details.
According to the report, MizarVision analyzed the movements of US KC-135 and KC-46 aerial refuelling tankers, identifying correlations between their flight paths and subsequent strikes on Iranian strategic targets. Since tanker aircraft often operate in coordination with bombers, their routes can serve as indicators of where strike missions are likely taking place. The company suggested that by mapping these tanker positions, it was possible to infer otherwise concealed bomber activity.
The analysis relied heavily on Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast signals, a system used to track aircraft positions in real time. Tankers are among the most frequently visible military aircraft on such systems, making them easier to monitor compared to stealth bombers, which typically avoid broadcasting identifiable signals during operations. By combining this publicly available tracking data with other intelligence inputs, the firm attempted to reconstruct strike patterns that are usually kept highly classified.
Despite the claims, it remains unclear how central artificial intelligence was to the methodology. Analysts noted that correlating tanker movements with bomber activity is inherently complex and uncertain, especially without direct confirmation of bomber locations. The report does not fully detail the AI models or techniques used, leaving questions about the extent of automation versus manual analysis.
MizarVision also referenced a prior month-long monitoring effort in which it used satellite imagery to track US military deployments across the Middle East. That earlier work, combined with the latest report, underscores how advances in commercial satellite technology and data analytics are increasingly enabling private entities to conduct intelligence-style assessments once limited to governments.
