Editor’s Note:As the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies and Trump escalates pressure, Chinese strategist Chen Jing goes bold: If Iran pulls through, China and Russia could back it—just like they did with Vietnam.
Iran is in a really bad situation right now. Most of its top military leaders have been killed, it’s lost control of its airspace, and Israel is bombing at will. As of Tuesday, news reports say Trump has approved a U.S. military plan for operations against Iran, though whether he’ll actually pull the trigger is up to him. He’s going all in on “maximum pressure,” hoping to break Iran’s will. But realistically, it’s probably going to be like an upgraded version of Israel’s strategy—airstrikes only, no ground troops.
That said, Iran still has some cards to play. For one, it still has thousands of missiles, and the ability to produce more. That’s already quite impressive for a developing country. Even from over a thousand kilometers away, they can accurately hit Israeli cities, including with hypersonic missiles that are hard or even impossible to intercept. If Iran starts firing off 10 or so missiles a day, Israelis will be living in constant fear, running for bomb shelters, and foreign visitors will stay away.
Then there’s the all-or-nothing option: Iran could drop countless naval mines into the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. That could easily push oil prices up to $120 a barrel, which would hit the global economy hard.
If it really comes to that, the U.S. and Israel will have no choice but to keep bombing, but the cost will be high. Gaza is one thing—it’s small. Iran has 1.6 million square kilometers. Bombing everywhere would stretch munitions supplies. And if the entire Iranian population unites in resistance, they might actually hold out. There’s no sign of any organized opposition within the country. The longer it goes on, the more Iran might adapt—leaders going underground, engineering teams digging tunnels, and people learning to survive below the surface.
If the U.S. and Israel go as far as wiping out Iran’s infrastructure, they’ll be creating a humanitarian crisis for nearly 100 million people. That’s hard to justify. And if regime change is the goal, someone has to go in on the ground to make it happen. That would be a massive escalation, drawing global condemnation—and even within the U.S., there’s fear of getting stuck in a deeper mess.
If the Iranian government manages to survive under U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, that would be a turning point. Iran is a formal member of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In fact, the SCO already issued a statement condemning Israel (India dissented). If Iran shows it has the will to resist, there’s a good chance China and Russia will step in with real support on the international stage. The likely outcome could be a ceasefire, third-party oversight of Iran’s nuclear program, but the regime would remain in place.
If Iran makes it through this, it will have fully woken up to the reality: there’s no hope in betting on the U.S. and Europe anymore. It once had intentions to work closely with China, back in 2021, there was a major economic cooperation plan—but it kept hoping for reconciliation with the West, which didn’t work out. After suffering this much, it may finally accept that going it alone isn’t enough. It needs to rethink and perhaps learn from Pakistan.
For example, Iran could buy second-hand equipment from Pakistan—J-10Cs, early warning aircraft—and get training from the Pakistanis, while also purchasing more from China. One of Iran’s advantages is that it’s much richer in resources than Pakistan, with stronger purchasing power. With a relatively small budget—maybe $10–20 billion—it could build an air force and air defense system comparable to Israel’s. Installment payments wouldn’t be an issue. Russia is already selling equipment, and helping Iran survive fits both Chinese and Russian interests.
In the end, we might see something like the 1960s anti-U.S. aid to Vietnam model again—China and Russia backing Vietnam against the U.S. This time, it’s Israel and Iran trading long-range strikes. But as long as the U.S. and Israel don’t commit ground troops, Iran may be able to hold out, buy advanced weapons, and learn through war. That’s a nightmare scenario for Israel—deep hatred, and you never know when a missile barrage might come next.
Source: China Academy
